As Junior Gold and Silver Exploration is complex, and high risk, with the success and failure of so many small companies, successful investment in this area requires good knowledge of the projects and people involved. Expertise in economic geology can add further judgement of the prospects.
A large number of newsletter "guru" writers have followings as the prospective rewards are so high in the right environment and investors seek a hand to hold in guiding them through the 1000's of listed companies and in timing their entries and exits from stock selection.
Clearly the newsletters are not public documents, however a number of the writers promote their picks publicly on TV, in the mining press and at investor conferences.
Excellent sites for research are Stockchase and The Gold Report, explored below. The links on this blog also identify some free sample newsletters made available by writers. For example - Jay Taylor at Miningstocks.com was offering a preview of his November 2011 letter and September 2013 letter. Often after a tough period in the juniors I have seen Jay offer these more up to date letters and have him to thank for a few picks at the end of 2008. Good stocks can get killed in bad markets and offer incredible bargains.
It is always worth trying to understand the newsletter writers' compensation from companies they promote and their stock positions held. Some writers are seen as "pumpers" of stocks. Personally I am wary of those promoting stocks they don't own, I would rather they "eat their own cooking" but equally the timing of purchases through placements then sale into "retail promotion" has a nasty odour.
As discussed in a post on this blog the promotion of small nano-cap and micro-cap gold and silver explorers is fraught with danger if these promotions reach large audiences during the "over-excited" phases of gold's bull-market.
It is wonderful to see your stock-holdings' price climb but such buying levels are probably not sustainable unless followed up with real news. Public discussion may be an opportunity for the newsletter writers' subscribers to unload stocks to the "greenhorns" as Otto at Inca Kola describes the new investors. Otto also questions some of the promoters' conduct, for example running high priced newsletters to select subscribers then promoting the stocks more widely in cheaper letters allowing profits for the high paying members.
Look for the writers at Gold Report and Stockchase.
The Gold Report has 2-3 weekly interviews, also with brokers and analysts, and has a number of mostly better quality sponsoring companies with recent commentary.
The better writers tend to follow projects and people over time and recognise the under and over-valued periods rather than pumping and dumping the latest hot stock story. Only we as individual investors can book profits before the herd decides to.
The "luck" or bad-luck of the drillbit is harder to anticipate but there is a strong "sell the news" ethic amongst many speculators in this sector so it really isn't a good idea to chase today's news releases, but there are some very strong discoveries which will build solidly on consecutive news and anticipation with normal pull backs.
However even the best companies' prices will fall during weak markets and this offers opportunity if you trust the picks.
The hardest part of the junior gold market is that the strongest stocks will often not "let you in" if you wait for big pullbacks while the market direction is bullish. In a weak market like 2011 they all do, if you kept cash...!
In using the links below it is usually best not to chase the latest interview release, or at least check the price movements before you trade, but set up watchlists and follow over time. Note the stocks liked by a number of experts and do your own due diligence.
To look them in the eyes - see Gold Reports interviews of expectations for 2012
Well regarded and sought after writers expressing public picks:
- Brent Cook - Exploration Insights - Geologist - worked for Rick Rule
- Mickey Fulp - Mercenary Geologist
- Rick Rule - Not a newsletter writer. Significant industry investor, was Global resource investments, now with Sprott. Frequent commentator on using volatility to your advantage, stock picks less frequent
- Coffin Brothers - The Hardrock Analyst - Geologists - Big on Yukon Area Play - will 2012 deliver 2011's expectations?
- (Sad news on 17th Feb 2012 - David Coffin Passed Away - RIP)
- Links at Gold Report - Eric Coffin : David Coffin
- Northern Miner Interview about Yukon
- You Tube - Yukon area play
- List of Closed and Profits Taken Stocks
- Lawrence Roulston - Resource Opportunities - Geologist
- Brien Lundin - Gold Newsletter
- John Kaiser - Kaiser Bottomfish - Mining analyst - Discounted cashflow models and valuations. Follows speculation cycles.
- Link at Gold Report
- Allows public view of some of his very detailed work after 2 months on "trackers"
- Spanish Mountain (SPA.v)
- Probe (PRB.v)
- Chesapeake Gold (CKG.v)
- Geologix (GIX.TO)
- Jay Taylor - Mining Stocks / Chen Lin - Mining Stocks/What is Chen Buying
- Jay Taylor Mining Stocks.com noted at top of this page and Nov-2011 letter
- September 2013 Letter
- Jay Taylor at Gold Report
- Chen Lin at Gold Report
- Jay Taylor at Stockchase - last 2008, still some known stocks
- Jim Dines - a very well followed letter. His picks in uranium and rare earths rocketed. Often fall back later. I have noticed that a Prospect Generator of interest to me was on of his gold picks in Jan 2011 (see Project Generator Page - Aurion)
- Gold Report - Does not have interviews but seems to have identified stock picks Again looks to be very fond of the prospect generator model..
The "Got Gold Report" from Gene Arensburg offers "Guru chosen" picks and follows a "vulture" approach to selling at the over-excited times and buying during distressed periods.