Saturday, 22 June 2019

Gold Breakout

Charlie Morris at Atlas Pulse - HERE

Correlations of gold price to real rates and matrix gold price against rates and inflation.

and gold vs investment flows

Gold as % if investable assets
"Gold ETF holdings used to represent 1% of US equity market cap in 2011, a number which has dropped to 0.3%. That is gold used to be equivalend weight as Exxon, a global giant, has now dropped to Starbucks. Gold doesn’t seem like a crowded trade to me."

Sunday, 18 November 2018

Gold Remonetisation - Basel III - Gold as Tier 1 Asset at 100% Valuation

I have seen little public commentary on the Basel III changes, but this seems to set the stage for serious flows into Physical Gold by financial institutions.

....under Basel III, monetary gold now qualifies as a Tier 1 asset, and is 100% valued for the purposes of banking viability. Another point to consider is that SIFIs are now required to quadruple their reserves when compared to the previous minimum requirements before the banking crisis. Essentially, monetary gold is now considered risk free. This significant development remains relatively unknown – for now......The Basel Committee on Banking Standards (BCBS) scrapped the old Basel II framework and put in place a plan that will be fully realized by all SIFIs by 2019.......February 2018 marked a major turning point for gold – monetary gold to be more specific – when the Swiss National Pension Fund switched out of synthetic gold derivatives into physical gold. Monetary gold is defined, in the new Basel III banking capital rules, as “physical gold held in their own vaults or in trust.” The Swiss decision complied with the new banking standards regarding capital adequacy as it relates to solvency and viability. All Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFI) must comply with the new rules for Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSF) and Liquidity by January 2019. Lessons learned from the last liquidity crisis, when Lehman Brothers nearly caused a global financial meltdown, forced a rethink in how assets held on an institution’s balance sheet are to be valued. Counter-party risk became extremely important again. In short, when trust between SIFIs fails, liquidity dries up as lending ceases due to solvency fears. The need for liquidity was a key change in the creation of the new standards, and it shone a spotlight on an asset that had largely been ignored for this purpose – physical gold.
Since the financial crisis government bonds have served to recapitalise the banks. As QE reduced interest rates the value of bonds increased.

If we have reached a point where interest rates increase, through distrust of government debt and bonds, this banking capital value will decrease.

Could banking flows into gold drive increased prices and  become an essential counter-weight to decreasing bond values, and capital, for the banks?

Saturday, 19 May 2018

US Targets Domestic Supply Boost for 35 Key Minerals - Executive Order 13817

Story here 
The Trump administration wants to identify new domestic sources of critical minerals; increase domestic exploration, mining and recycling; give miners and producers electronic access to better mapping and geological data; and streamline leasing and permitting for new mines

Details HERE

list of 35 critical minerals. The final list includes: Aluminum (bauxite), antimony, arsenic, barite, beryllium, bismuth, cesium, chromium, cobalt, fluorspar, gallium, germanium, graphite (natural), hafnium, helium, indium, lithium, magnesium, manganese, niobium, platinum group metals, potash, the rare earth elements group, rhenium, rubidium, scandium, strontium, tantalum, tellurium, tin, titanium, tungsten, uranium, vanadium, and zirconium

Monday, 12 March 2018

Gold Based Crypto

Long list emerging HERE

Including the Sprott Backed Tradewind

"Gold-focused money manager Sprott owns approximately 20 percent of TradeWind and plans to use the platform as a dealer, but said it’s too soon to say whether it will migrate its physical gold trust onto the platform. Chief Executive Officer Peter Grosskopf called the digitization of gold trading “the most important thing to happen to the gold market in the last several decades.”
“Gold has always been criticized as being an inefficient product, a lazy product, a product that’s hard to transact with,” Grosskopf said in a phone interview. “It’s almost as though the blockchain were invented for gold. The marriage of the two, I think it’s going to be incredibly powerful.”
Grosskopf said he sees a day where gold is used as a form of digital cash, supplanting cryptocurrencies and opening up a “completely new user base.”
“It’s a market that’s many hundred times as large as cryptocurrency markets and once it’s fast and it’s secure, why would anyone use crypto?” Grosskopf said. “Every year since the 1970s gold has lost market share to financial assets and I think this gives it a chance to come back against those financial assets.”

Wednesday, 28 February 2018

Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Peter Brandt on Gold

"My bias is that Gold will rip through resistance to commence a new bull trend"

Fred Hickey on the Opportunity in Gold Miners

"So, we have this huge disconnect between the price of gold and the margins of the miners -- which are doing very well because they had to keep their costs low -- and the price of the stocks. Now, ultimately, that will get corrected. We saw the huge run in 2015, where gold went up 30% in the beginning of 2016 and the miners went up 180%. And we saw that in 2000, when gold went up quite a bit, and the miners went up 1600%. That’s 17 times the average. We saw that in the 1970s coming out of the bear market there. We saw that on the big net buyers went up at least 10 times, and some of them went up as much as 30 times. So, this happens regularly when the miners get depressed. They get out of whack with the price of gold and margins, and then they slingshot higher. And that’s what I think we’re about to see.
We’re right there. I think there’s going to be enormous amounts of money entering this sector once again, just as we saw in early 2000s, just like we did coming out of 2015, the bottom, just as we did coming out of the 1970s mid-cycle correction. So, I’m pretty excited about it."

Article / Podcast

Tuesday, 2 January 2018

Peter Brandt on Gold 2018

"I believe there is a good chance that the precious metals will be an outstanding asset class in 2018 – Gold could outperform Bitcoin in the year ahead."

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Jordan Roy-Byrne on Favouring the Junior Miners

Jordan reviews his focus on the juniors during the progression of a precious metals bull market, (for those convinced the turn in 2016 was the final transition to a bull market).

From the fundamentals, so often repeated by Brent Cook, of falling discovery rates and majors looking to replace depleted high grade reserves, to the investment cycles, leverage and added value of discovery and development.

I would add to this the interesting developments in the GDXJ Gold juniors ETF.
Investors are keen to get exposure to the juniors but the ETF is unable to deploy all the funds without reorganisation and is looking to move more investment in larger companies.
Will some of those investors wanting exposure to the juniors invest more directly into key junior companies? In a bull market as valuations and liquidity increase this should become more feasible.

Thursday, 20 April 2017


I hadn't realised there are now 800-900 Cryptocurrencies.

The entire marketcap for the sector has more than tripled in a year, standing at a total $30bn, adding $10bn in just the last couple of months. 
$20bn of the total market cap is Bitcoin, with only 4 others over $500m.
"Altcoins", I presume non Bitcoin, have quadrupled to $10bn in just the last 2 months.

CoinMarket appears to list and track 800
Cryptocompare lists almost 900

Current promotions by the usual letters.

A number of doubles, triples and 10 baggers in the last 7 days trading!

Fortunes made and lost in the speculative tides.
Caveat Emptor
Hotel California

Sunday, 26 March 2017

Sharpest Plunge in Credit since the Financial Crisis (while Stocks Soar)

Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph

While stock markets soar there are conflicting signals from credit markets.
Either the stock market is seeing the other side of this, and a huge pent up lending boom for the banks after Trump cuts taxes, or the credit markets are flashing the real signals.