Haywood Securities - Weekly Dig - 2014

CEO. CA has links to Haywood's Weekly Dig, including their Junior X watchlist and numerous producer earnings estimates and reserve/resource valuations across Gold, Silver and many other miners.

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• 27th June 2014

Brent Cook - Tips for Finding Juniors that can survive the dust bowl

Brent Cook Interview at The Gold Report

In H1/14, I went through more than 100 gold deposits with NI-43-101-compliant resources and found very few that I felt actually made good money. There are lots of resources being touted by too many companies, just not many that can make money, assuming the gold price and cost structure stays more or less where they are.

If we see a rapid rise in the gold price, maybe some of these assets will look more profitable. The last time the gold price rose, the majors dropped the grade they were mining, thereby lowering their per ton profitability. At the same time the input costs that go into mining—labor, materials, consumables—rose. We never saw the profit that was advertised and that we expected.

Unlike many interviewees, Cook actually owns some juniors.
Brent Cook: I own, or my family owns, shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: 

• Pilot Gold Inc.
• Fission Uranium Corp. 
• Focus Ventures Ltd.
• Dalradian Resources Inc

In Gold We Trust - Stoeferle - Incrementum 2014

The eighth annual report from Ronald-Peter Stoeferle at Incrementum covering much gold "fundamentals" ground.

In the course of last year’s price collapse, a lot of technical damage was inflicted. The past months have seen a significant decline in speculative activity in the sector. The majority of bulls appear to have thrown in the towel. We like the fact that the consensus considers the gold bull market over. Gold is now a contrarian investment. 

The migration of gold demand from West to East is continuing. The growing importance of Asia's middle class for gold demand is widely underestimated. Assuming that incomes in China and India will continue to rise, gold will inevitably be one of the beneficiaries of this “love trade”.  

Gold stocks clearly exhibit a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile at present. In the wake of the correction, mining companies have reset their priorities - profitability, capital spending discipline and shareholder value have replaced the maximization of production. Moreover, there is no other sector that investors view with similarly pronounced scepticism. 

From a technical perspective, our assumption is that the gold price is near the end of its long consolidation period. The clearly positive CoT data and the recent revival of gold mining shares all suggest as much. We are therefore convinced that the technical picture has been repaired and that a stable bottom has formed. 

Of course correlation is not causation .... but some interesting charts below  - But Do Read the Full Report linked above.....

Brent Cook on the Upturn in Junior Stocks

Brent Cook in discussion on Korelin

Have Precious Metals begun a New Bull Market ? - Possible massive H&S bottom - Peter Brandt

Peter Brandt points to a possible massive head and shoulders bottom in gold, yet to be confirmed, with a break over $1400 targeting $2400.
Similarly Chris Kimble points to a possilbe H&S bottom in the Gold Miners.

Barron's Mid-year Roundtable - Fred Hickey on Gold as Interest Rates go negative

Mid-year Roundtable from Barron's

Fred Hickey -

The European Central bank just announced it will charge banks 0.1% for parking cash overnight. That gold and silver now yield more than cash could be a spectacularly bullish propellant for the metals. 

We should consider that negative over-night rates, as a tool to push banks to lend, may not prove effective if applied solely in one jurisdiction, the EU, whilst capital is mobile globally. The stronger £ GBP and US$ may be some sign of EU capital movement. If these economies do not want stronger currencies we may see more central banks also set negative rates, can this be a spur to increased lending and money velocity lacking in recent years? Gold should react to this.

Brent Cook - Insights into the Discovery Process

Discovery Process

A series of free articles

1)    The ability to conceptualize a legitimate target that offers the possibility of a meaningful economic deposit.

2)    Teamwork and open minds to revise and adjust the exploration target concept based on new data.

3)    Money, plus an investor base that is willing to let the exploration process play out.

4)    The ability to rapidly recognize and accept failure and walk away from a project that once held great potential.

Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years

Bloomberg article

Meyer said the FOMC now doesn’t appear worried about having a big balance sheet, and many officials “prefer to operate at a higher level of reserves.”     “There is a preference emerging to say, ‘This works,’” Meyer said. “The question is, do they ever want to get back to normal?”

Junior Gold M&A - Pilot Gold to Acquire Cadillac Mining

Pilot, one of Mark O'Dea's companies, spun out of Fronteer Gold after acquisition by Newmont, announce the acquisition of tiny junior Cadillac focussed on a past producing Utah sediment hosted gold project.

Larry Edelson Increasingly Bullish on Precious Metals and Selected Miners ?

HERE

While gold, silver and mining shares may look weak on the surface, I have every reason to believe that this weakness is merely a disguise for the next big move,  which will be dramatically higher for both metals -

Junior Gold M&A - Mandalay to Acquire Elgin

Mandalay have seen steady stock appreciation during the mining bear market with a focus on production and near production assets and benefits from Antimony prices.(last year revenues were ~ 39:42:19 Gold:Silver:Antinmony) They recently purchased Silver Standard's Challocollo project (in Bolivia) and are now proposing the $70m acquisition of Elgin Mining who started out with a plan to rehabilitate the Lupin mine in Nunavut then acquired Gold Ore Resources for their producing Swedish Bjorkdal gold mine. Adding another 50k oz production could see Mandalay produce over 150k oz combined. Elgin's last presentaation indicated that $30-50m capex could move them to 70-78k oz pa. It will be interesting to see whether Elgin's Patrick Downey remains in the combined group.

Junior Gold M&A - B2 Gold to Acquire Papillon Resources $570m

So the rumour mill was right, Clive Johnson's B2 Gold are to acquire Papillon's high grade deposit in Mali which should add 300k low cost oz to production for near $300m additional build capex, near $900m in all. Together with the Volta acquisition in Burkina Faso this should make quite a centre in a relatively undeveloped and unexplored West African gold belt with political risk the key concern.

Rio Tinto Chartbook - May 2014

No precious metals at Rio Tinto but a wide ranging view of the materials and markets Rio operate in, especially Iron and Coal to China. Including Iron cost curves