Saturday, 21 June 2014

Brent Cook on the Upturn in Junior Stocks

Brent Cook in discussion on Korelin

  • Cook surprised by the increases, expected poor summer.
  • Doesn't see fundamental change yet to the miners being unprofitable, poor financing conditions
  • 2 types driving the market
    • Long haul investors establishing positions to build new projects 
    • Speculators looking for move on large uneconomic resources held by well known names
  • Most majors deposits don't make money, high grading, short term profit improvements. 
  • Cook looking at high grade profitable juniors, for example Papillon recently bid by B2 Gold
  • Maybe a dozen quality high margin low capex deposits, become more valuable.
  • Don't need massive scale properties, smaller ounces, higher grade
  • Not a fan of large low grade "milling projects" with billion $ builds, any hiccup goes underwater
  • Needs to see a target / resource being defined 
    • Offering lower 1/3 cash costs, $600-700/oz
    • Capex $2-400m or less
    • Exploration upside - justify premium if offer chance to double resource
    • Newsletter has 5 companies like Papillon
  • Simon Ridgway new company - Focus Ventures, Phosphate project.
  • Adamera - quite positive due to Kinross partnership

Next discussion Jayant Bhandari
  • Marriage of companies with cash / no cash creating better companies
  • Good companies must spend higher cash to move projects forward. The worst companies may keep afloat either change sector, Marajuana, REE etc
  • Illiquid smallcap companies, 20-30% upside when acquired
  • Continuing pressure to re-organise
  • Likes some of poor jurisdiction projects market scared by. E.g. Mawson West in Congo.

Dan Oliver - Mymikan Capital
  • Sees money managers reporting Qtr to Qtr who could not be involved in gold during periods of poor performance but they understand Gold's role and potential and will jump in ahead of inflationary expectations.

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