Monday, 20 February 2012

Speculating and Investing

A good Doctor made me think about Speculating and Investing.

"To The American Damphool Speculator, surnamed the American Sucker, otherwise described herein as The Thinker Who Thinks He Knows But Doesn't, greetings! This book is for you! Read as you run and may you run as you read!"
The introduction to My Adventures with Your Money, by George Graham Rice (1913) Timeless
The conclusion of the book is that all public markets are run by insiders to their benefit.
I do believe there is some truth in this but equally we all see companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google etc which have grown in the public markets, no doubt enriching their managements, but also many shareholders, most particularly early investors.

And what is safe and speculative if the money in your pocket loses its value, if government bonds may pay
negative yields. There can surely be no more staggering situation of "greater fool theory" than the day we see Government Bond yields trade negatively, freely funding governments which would be bankrupt at any true cost of capital and interest rate.

A wide range of precious metal mining and exploration stocks are reviewed and discussed on this blog.
The junior mining and exploration sector is awash with those who seek to part we fools from our money.

The aim of the blog is to use screens and filters, especially good people and good projects,  to identify those which might be worthy of our trust and investment.

My only hope. (assuming not being American is of no real assistance)
That there are good people, good leaders, people building businesses.
That great companies are born, some die, some grow, some flourish and that a few do this on public markets rather than using public markets for insiders to monetise their privately built wealth.
It has happened, we have all seen it happen.
I have also seen the opposite, the cruel tout, the promotion, the pump, the dump.

They will both happen again.
I do not write at length about rocks, holes , geology, forecasts, promises. I have insufficient knowledge and expertise, though I seek to find those who do.

I can only try to apply filters to a large universe of explorers and junior miners.
I look in the hope that good people win and can't stand to idly sit on the beach counting their wealth, that they move on, they call round good teams and find good projects, wanting to win again, they value their good name, are driven to succeed against all odds, that when they fail they will quickly admit that failure and move on to better odds.

Rob McEwen built Goldcorp on the public markets and aims to repeat his success with McEwen Mining.

Keith Neumeyer's First Majestic Silver, an object lesson in a company managed by someone who had been there and done it, at First Quantum, had a long term vision, long floated on the public market.
Criticised in the past for undertaking financings at interim price peaks, a rational thing to do, but disruptive of short term speculators.
Eventually we saw value realised against a rising silver price.

The key theme pages, good people-good projects, juniors with a major insider, to be applied against all the other angles, regional etc.

I can only hope a number of us here can collectively identify the companies and directors positioned to repeat these successes, aswell as those who have already delivered much of their potential and are positioned to benefit from metal prices.
Driven, ambitious, capable, motivated teams who seek to create.
Are there any on public markets?

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