Friday, 16 March 2012

FOMC & Gold March 2012

Gold reacted lower as no further QE was announced 13th March
Worse damage followed through the following day with some recovery on the 15th.

Worse damage followed on the HUI, playing very close to a definition of technical support given in the article below with the lowest point reached after 5 tests of the 500 level over recent months.

One divergence I would point to is the Canadian Venture $CDNX which has set higher price lows and RSI / MACD.  Continuing trend here will see a golden cross of the 50/200d MA. GDX looks more like a triple bottom. The question is whether the small speculative venture is a "leading" indicator or of little relevance. I think the falls in the venture last year were indicative.

The announcements of using the strategic oil reserve smack of lowering inflation expectations before QE can be announced. Lower gold would help too. Both these assets are becoming clear stores of value however.

Goldman suggests QE may come as soon as April 2012, as late as June

And yet bonds are selling off. Various interpretations would say because the economy  is fixed, financials are fixed so interest rates will rise.

Others disagree

As so often FT Alphaville offers many thoughts.
Technical "convexity"

More convincing I find is this suggestion. China's balance of payments changes mean less Remnimbi sterilisation, and less US treasury buying. See also Chris Martenson on less buying, or sales to come from Japan

This would fit with Sinclair's thesis around changes in Dollar utilisation and increasing trade through the Remnimbi

No comments:

Post a Comment