Saturday, 26 October 2013

Gold Prices Ready to Take Off Again - Larry Edelson

Edelson has a good record in staying well away from gold and the miners since calling the gold market top, a little early, in 2011. ......more.....

He also sees no conflict between a rise in gold and a rising stock market unlike many of the gold crowd.
Jim Sinclair often seen by some as an 'arch-gold bug' has made the same point seeing stocks and gold as real assets during a monetary inflation.
Rising gold + rising stocks = Rising gold Stocks ?
A confirmed breakout in the Venture (see earlier post) could suggest yes.
(Update - Edelson hedges 3 potential scenarios and key weekly closing prices HERE)

Also some interesting charts suggesting a renewed gold bull from Jason Hamlin. 
Many are around the debt growth concerns of the gold bugs but I find the extremes on the monetary velocity chart interesting.

Edelson's articles are regularly HERE
An interview on his overview of the gold market HERE
in a widely published bulletin dated September 18 — just 12 days after gold’s record high at $1,920 — you announced that you had turned bearish and urged your readers to HEDGE their gold the $1,920 high in September 2011, volume and open interest in the futures markets were contracting, the exact opposite of what was happening at the bottom back in 2000, also indicating the top was at hand........ I didn’t see any major reversals in the four major signals that caused me to forecast a correction in the first place. I’m not always right — but the markets are. They are never wrong. When they don’t respond to what should be extremely bullish developments or forces, it’s clear that the character of the market has changed....... So let me ask you the question that I get asked most often today: When is Larry Edelson going to turn bullish on gold again? When are you going to issue your long-awaited “BUY” signal?.......Larry: I can’t tell you until the market tells me. I can tell you, however, that we’re getting very close. As I said before, gold’s two-year correction ends this year........ For the answers to these questions, I don’t guess. I don’t have opinions. But I do have my cycles and trading models. So when they tell me to start buying, you can bet that I’ll be buying with both hands and that I’ll start backing up the truck. Personally, I am super excited about it for three reasons:It will be the most important buy signal in gold since my buy signal way back in 2000, 13 years ago.It will represent the beginning of gold’s next major leg higher, which will take it to over $5,000 an ounce in the next three years. And, I personally plan on making more money in gold over the next three years than I did over the last 13. So it’s going to be hugely rewarding and a lot of fun
The most recent call for a gold low and renewed bull is HERE, though recent articles suggested he expected a new low in gold, if not the miners, before a renewed climb. (see updated above 3 scenarios)
Also a recent call for the Dow to top 30,000 for all the reasons bears cite as reasons for it to crash is interesting and fits with a view that sees gold's major bull arriving with a clear top in the bond market and rising nominal interest rates seeing flows into real assets, which would include stocks and gold, until real interest rates see diminishing business profitability.

I don't know how Edelson's monthly and weekly cycles are arrived at, but they have given interesting signals for some time.

Monetary velocity from Hamlin

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