Monday, 28 January 2013

Speakers & Interviews at Vancouver 2013

Speakers at the Cambridge House Vancouver Conference
Presentations - HERE
Interviews - HERE
Korelin Interviews - HERE
Some Picks and notes below

Rick Rule

Over-arching gloom at the conference. Usual message of the joy of bear markets to buy stocks on sale. One of the only businesses in the world to give these. Invest intelligently now you will make a lot of money. Feel beat up, all your competitors feel the same way, there is little competition. Bear markets set up bull markets. Supply and demand, resource bull hurt but intact. Living off old deposits and mines. Political theft, mines are in fixed locations. Think of lower % growth in countries like China on a base which has grown so much. The Junior market has started to bifurcate. 18m to 2 years bearish market. Excesses have been extraordinary. Some spend <25% on exploration. Scandal. Probably 70% of venture companies are worth zero and will go to zero. Refers to Kaiser's research <6months working cap. Sector will feel week because the weak are failing. Best 5-10% may have bottomed, may still pull back 20%.
What will turn market around
1) More high quality managements than have ever been, generously funded for 10 years, much wasted, not all. Good stocks have been taken down with the back stocks. Will do well because cheap. 18 months cash to survive, with good managements.
2) Low prices to drive takeovers. Can buy deposits in the market for $2m with $40m spent. M&A adds hope and liquidity.
3) In a discovery cycle, take a long time.
4) Issuers will have to be rational to raise capital.  
This is the time to start being aggressive.

Brent Cook

Entering a period of time in the next one to two years which will be one of THE best times in 10 years to be investing in the sector given what has happened to valuations, buying quality companies, it will be a difficult year for most of the sector. Have to be very very selective, there is value but know what you're buying. Looking to turn rocks into money, what will make a high margin mine. Determine a go/no go decision, too many companies keep working on poor properties.
Expects rangebound gold price this year. Costs have been following gold price. Still hard to find economic gold deposits.
Regions E.Europe, W.Africa, Andes, Nicaragua, Mexico, Nevada, parts of Canada. Infrastructure costs, political environment. Poor liquidity for the stocks.
Know who will buy a stock from you and why, looking for someone smarter than him to buy from him, a mining company, not a greater fool.
Interested in base metals and iron rather than gold deposits, expecting an improved economy.
A couple of years more pain, working out non-viable companies and deposits.
The most important thing for due diligence, sound out management, how much cash, get good advice.
Odds can be improved with due diligence. Low odds.
Usual picks, Midas, Belo Sun, Lydian, Reservoir Minerals, Mirasol Resources. Prospect Generators, Eurasian Minerals, Millrock, Riverside, Renaissance, Miranda. Cashed up companies which find things.
Small financings are just keeping salaries going. Property payments and commitments. Avoid trend chasers. Focus on working capital, value at a discount. Know what the company is looking for, if idea fails, get out. Too many not looking for something anyone cares about.

Cash : Property payments, staff, programmes. Refers to Kaiser's work,

Peter Spina, established Goldseek in 1995. 

Discusses stocks from 21:00m - Winners last year - Timmins Gold, Silvercrest, Gold Resource, Elgin Mining, Prophecy Platinum, Midland Exploration, Northern Gold Mining.....more

Ian Mclelland  - Pro-active Investors - Focus on management teams. Look at directors compensation and options pricing, re-pricing options? M&A activity big theme. Significant well developed assets. Acquisitions for discounts on costs of going into production. Likes Ontario, a lot of interesting deals being done, renewed country risk focus. British Columbia good. Australia good.

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