Saturday, 26 May 2012

Debt and Deleveraging

See also previous posting on Ray Dalio's views which emphasise the same themes.

Merryn Somerset Web at UK Moneyweek points to a review by McKinsey of 32 previous episodes of deleveraging after financial crises.

As a reminder there are 4 routes to de-leverage
1) Rapid Economic Growth
2) Default
3) High Inflation
4) Austerity

The report points out that economic growth happened only once, unfortunately this was World War 2.

Combinations of 2,3 and 4 seem more likely. Financial Repression can assist the process.
As we hear the line that Europe's austerity has failed we either enter brutal default or the money printing starts to push for inflationary solutions. I suspect these "solutions" will be presented as plans to achieve economic growth.

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