Thursday, 20 September 2012

Japan joins Global Easing - What is the Endgame - Gold $15000 Paul Brodsky

Japan Joins the Race to Debase

Interesting discussion by Paul Brodsky at QB Asset Management of the potential endgames involving gold.

Unlike 1979-1980, monetary policy makers will not be able to resurrect the purchasing power of their currencies by raising interest rates (or  this time  by  withdrawing base money from the system),because the balance sheets of governments, banking systems and households are already  deeply indebted,  impaired, and unlikely to be meaningfully improved without currency devaluation.Tightening credit in the current environment would most certainly bring on a deflationary depression. 
Once banks are deemed to be sufficiently de-leveraged through debt monetization, we believe central banks will begin monetizing  assets as a means of explicitly devaluing their currencies.  As we have argued, the asset of choice will be the only monetary asset already held by global treasury ministries and central banks and the one with recent precedent collateralizing global currencies – gold.
• The policy-administered currency devaluation  we have envisioned  would involve a central bank publicly  tendering for gold at an increased exchange rate (i.e. price). For  example, the Fed would purchase gold with newly created US dollars, which would bring the ratio of USD-denominated creditto-base money back into line, thereby de-leveraging the system. (This inflation would increase prices and wages relative to outstanding debt balances, greatly reducing the burden of debt repayment.)Global currencies might be re-pegged to the US dollar which would in turn be exchangeable for gold at the higher price, as per the Bretton Woods system. Of course, other central banks might try to make their currencies exchangeable directly into gold at another exchange rate. (We await the arbitrage.)
• Were a USD devaluation and re-pegging to occur as of the end of 2014, following 2 ¼ years of $40 billion monthly MBS debt monetization,  we estimate our Shadow Gold Price would approximate $15,000/ounce. (The SGP divides the quantity of USD base money by the quantity of US official gold holdings, as per the Bretton Woods monetary regime.) Over the weekend, Bank of America analysts implied USD base money inflation would increase much more than the Fed announced, to about $5 trillion by the end of 2014.
This figure would imply an SGP a bit over $19,000/oz. 
We are often asked when we see our scenario playing out. Our answer has always been twofold: first, current conditions and policy responses confirm it is playing out now; second, it is impossible to say when the parabolic“catch-up” phase gets underway because that depends on the interplay between the  general  public’s understanding of the forces behind consumer goods and service price inflation, the pressures on real returns in most financial assets, and the reflexive political pressures and policy responses to them. Nevertheless, we suspect last week’s events, in which both the ECB and Fed committed to open-ended base money creation – against a geopolitical environment in which China’s USD reserves are being held astride an increasingly dynamic domestic political regime and in which the petro-dollar regime of the past forty years seems under attack – may be the catalyst that begins to raise public awareness of the link between monetary inflation and price inflation.

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