Saturday, 28 April 2012

Central Bank Balance Sheets

An interesting chart at Acting-Man from Now and Futures

The extraordinary growth in Central Bank balance sheets is widely considered a fundamental driver of the Gold Bull.

And how will Central Banks exit this extraordinary Quantitative Easing and Asset purchases?
Some suggest that they can just cancel the bonds....
But that would be seen as extreme monetisation

Compare the ascent of Gold - from Nick Laird's Sharelynx via Jesse's Cafe

OT - Peter Kay - Bolton Laughs

Hope a little Lancashire humour translates.
Have you been to this family wedding?

Canadian Venture Market

The Canadian Venture Market ($CDNX) is sitting at important support.

Either we will see continuing collapse or we have a triple bottom with potential divergences in RSI and MACD.
Charts and stock movers below...........

Austerity and Growth Compacts

There is considerable discussion that Europe cannot recover with austerity alone, a "Growth Compact" in needed.

Wouldn't it be interesting if one economic bloc had followed an austerity plan and was plunging deeper into recession while another had followed aggressive easing and appeared to be recovering.

For polititians austerity is tough to sell at election time, as we see in France. 

Maybe this would embolden Central Bankers and polititians to engage in much more easing, even in an election year.

Gold's timing cycle is ready to respond to aggressive easing.

Friday, 27 April 2012

Jim Sinclair Interview

A long interview with Jim Sinclair. One of the more calmly reasoned discussions I have seen with him. Argues that Bernanke did what he had to do in 2008. Argues for a contained price of gold this year.


Gold Junior Mergers & Acquisitions - Iamgold to Buy Trelawny for $585m

$500m value EV, net of cash. Approx $75/oz, mostly inferred.

Iamgold discussing the acquisition here
I held Augen Gold which Trelawny acquired and the potential of some of the properties may be a significant part of the acquisition logic. Trelawny also recently consolidated other elements of a large land package.

Is this just the start of a Mergers & Acquisitions Cycle?
Shareholders may have been disappointed as the price was a near 50% discount to the 12 month high. What are management and key stock holders looking to do next where they believe they can add more value?

Interesting to me that now both Richfield and Trelawny have been bought out at relatively early stages after discovery and with large bulk tonnage models and large district scale land packages.
The Rick Rule article linked a couple of days ago, to my reading, implied favouring high grade mines. Perhaps the lesson is simply a view on "mineability" which companies are ready to take their own views on rather than wait for full technical studies.
The extremely remote projects with enormous capital requirements may still have the issues Rule refers to. Trelawny and Richfield are near relatively good infrastructure, and accessible year round.

So where does that $585m go now?

Into bonds, Apple, or looking for the next Gold Juniors?

Trelawny and many other success stories traded at pennies in 2008/9, this is the potential in the juniors if we can find the best quality opportunities in the market.......

Central Bank Gold Purchases

A few views of Central Bank Gold buying

Suggestion that at current rates on track to buy $700bn this year after purchasing 58T in March

Michael Kosares at USA Gold has a wider review, suggesting that the Central Banks are adding a new dimension to the gold bull. Showing 400T purchases in 2011 vs sales in all previous years.

Here's a puzzle from Jeff Borsato at Cara Community however.... if the central banks are buying, someone is selling.

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

Rick Rule on Gold Juniors

Whenever Gold Junior miners and explorers make it back into a bull market read this article by Rick Rule, now with Sprott.

Embrace volatility or be a victim.

Recognise over-valuation and under-valuation.

Read in Full Here

Saturday, 21 April 2012

OT Arctic Monkeys

Sheffield Boys.

Gold Mining Merger & Acquisition Targets - Iamgold

I continue to think that value in the juniors will drive M&A activity and spark the new bull in the sector.

Iamgold played it well in the last cycle, securing Orezone's Essakane deposit in Burkina Faso and adding 300k oz pa production for a $139m acquisition price in the depths of December 2008.

Here they discuss looking for an acquisition in the Americas for $500m.

Steve Letwin, chief executive officer of midtier gold miner Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T  12.66  0.15  1.20%), practically rubs his hands in glee as he talks about plans to propel the company into the major leagues in as little as five years.

Sunday, 15 April 2012

18 Stages to Mining Ruin

A sorry tale of all that can happen to the investor during the junior's journey into production.

Linked Here

Junior Company Cash Holdings

For those looking for some belts and braces underlying company valuations, some highlights here from Mineweb.

I am looking for a good recommended stock screener to analyse and find these positions.

Tuesday, 10 April 2012

Good Jurisdiction - Country Risk - Behre Dolbear

Behre Dolbear provide a free annual review of Country risk.

Full article at Mineweb

For the Original Article See Website PDF "Where not to Invest" - includes broad discussion

For extremely detailed assessments of various issues affecting mining See also the Annual Fraser Institute Survey for Good Jurisdiction - includes lengthy analysis and discussion

For a brief snapshot....

Monday, 9 April 2012

China's Golden Focus

Initially read this at JSMineset but the link here gives access to the full article.
Sinclair argues that "value" will turn the direction of gold stocks.

Linked Here

An interesting article from Australia on Chinese interest in Gold mining acquisitions. Historically there has been a presumption that there was a focus only on iron and base metals. There is also reference to direct Chinese purchases of gold from mining companies.

Sunday, 8 April 2012

Updates to - Nevada - Yukon - Good People

The most popular posts and pages on the blog have proved to be

  • Nevada Exploration (See "Regional Exploration" Page)
  • Yukon Exploration   (                "                 "             )
  • Good People - Good Projects
  • Junior Gold with a Major Mining Shareholder
I have recently revisited and added quite a lot of detail and links on the Nevada and Yukon pages.

The "Good People" page still needs work but now includes additional names either suggested to me or picking up Casey's Explorers League and Nexten individuals for example. 

Clearly views of notable management will vary. The projects cannot all be "good projects", some are very early stage, lottery tickets perhaps, so considerable care and due diligence must still be taken.

I would be grateful to hear any opinions regarding possible additions and equally any cautions around companies or people included.

New York Hard Assets Conference

The New York Hard Assets Conference appears to be a far smaller affair than PDAC but could reach significant investors.

Below are a list of sponsoring companies to watch.
A few newer names emerging.

Saturday, 7 April 2012

Gold Miner Timing

Someone I have seen with sensible views on timing gold and the miners is David Bannister.
He sees some hope of progress in gold and the miners.

Geoff at Cara Community has led in for a few days looking for the trade of the year as gold and miners get the last shake of the tree.

Monday, 2 April 2012

Hidden Strength in the Juniors

I have made a number of references to the Canadian venture making higher lows over the past 6 months while HUI and GDX have broken "support".

I see that Gene Arensberg at the "Got Gold Report" sees some of the same signs.