Tuesday, 27 January 2015

Pinetree falls to Creditors - Sheldon Inwentash out

Symbolic of the rise and fall of the canadian juniors; today news that Sheldon Inwentash has left Pinetree having failed to maintain covenants on large debentures.
Pinetree's big peak was in the uranium bubble but rose into 2011 invested across many mining stocks.
Inwentash ensured a last hurrah in 2011 taking pay of 10% of fund growth.
Pinetree Capital, an investment fund with a portfolio worth $794 million, paid its CEO Sheldon Inwentash $34.6 million in 2010.
Market Cap today C$ 17m

Sunday, 25 January 2015

Ross Beaty Interview - Vancouver 2015

  • Outlook has changed quite "profoundly" since last year. 
  • Bearish on most metals, very bullish on gold, more bullish as the months have gone on. Nervous on copper.
  • Metals move in cyles, make money on the way in, this is the kind of time to be buying. 
  • Mostly investing in gold and silver stocks. Great couple of years ahead for silver. 
  • Ecuador, mining industry as catalyst for country growth as oil turns down, Beaty and Lundin view.
  • Still likes renewable energy, thinks dirty coal is dead, dustbin of history. Oil little to do with renewable energy - competes with coal and gas, low gas prices an issue.
  • Strong pricing has encouraged over-supply for most metals. Zinc well balanced, copper energy metal not so over-supplied.
  • Successful juniors de-risked large assets good management. 
  • Been buying gold and silver junior stocks. Good discoveries rare but always a winner.
  • Watching and buying a number of junior mining stocks undisclosed below 10% insider holdings.
Publicly holds : Pan American Silver, Alterra, Kaminak (with Lundin) , Odin Mining, Anfield Nickel, Nord Resources?, Amerigo,  Kivalliq

John Kaiser Stock Picks from Vancouver Resource 2015

Picks noted HERE, a number of these are long standing picks.

  • Gold: Midas, Temex, Highway 50, 
  • Peregrine Diamond, 
  • Copper: Amarc, Tsodilo, InZinc, Nickel: First Point Minerals
  • Scandium International - (new materials theory, see also investments by Robert Friedland

Kaiser's detailed company analyses can be found HERE , with those over a month old being free to read. Clearly the latest notes are restricted to paid members but price reaction may indicate bullish or bearish to the original views you can follow.
Interview discusses changes in the oil market and the bullish case for gold, changing from the 'apocalyptic goldbug narrative' to one focussed on the improving 'real price' of gold for the miners. (As discussed on the blog here, miners operating outside the US should see substantial cost reductions)
China infrastructure build out over, focus on consumption.
India future powerhouse, hardline on regulations, take 5-7 years then a supercycle for massive expansion.

Brent Cook Interviews - VRIC-15

Don't buy crap zombie juniors. Copper may have lower supply. Gold higher by year end.
Interview at CEOca

Additional interview  discussing the usual subjects of lack of discoveries and the majors needing to buy good deposits, of which there are few, plus more discussion of selling discipline.

Smallcap-power interview from VRIC - Mentions that December-14 newsletter bought Kaminak, Premier Gold and Lakeshore Gold

Rick Rule Interview from VRIC-15

Another Resource Investing Interview from the Vancouver Show -
Best of the best on sale cheap, 20% of companies worthwhile.
The idea that there is no quality is idiotic.
Not in a capitulation market yet based on issuer behaviour.
Long term likes coal, uranium, gas - finding the best producers hanging on  until market changes.

Additional interview at Smallcap power - discusses focus on buying "the best of the best" and the market recovery as a cracking whip.

Doug Casey Gold Stock Picks - Louis James

At the Vancouver Conference - HERE
Include - Integra Gold, Continental Gold, Dalradian, Kaminak, Rubicon, Dynacor

Tuesday, 20 January 2015

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Goldcorp to acquire Probe Mines

Goldcorp announced the acquisition of Probe Mines in Ontario for $440m-$526m, a near 50% premium.
The straws have been in the wind since Jamie Sokalsky ex Barrick chief joined the company and the junior consolidated key land packages to control the district target and the key high grade targets. John Kaiser has been early in highlighting the high grade discovery in what was seen as a low grade play - his last note gives a detailed view of the project. Scotia's downgrade of the stock caused a scare last year but does not look to have put off Goldcorp. Probe made their first run during the Noront led Ring of fire Chromite discoveries and this will be spun off to a new company with cash.
The stock is the rare 100-bagger from the 2008 crash lows with a technical team changing project focus to Borden gold and then identifying a high grade core to a large low grade deposit.
In December 2014 David Palmer of Probe won PDAC's Bill Dennis Award for the Borden project
"This prestigious award is shared by every member of the Probe team," said David Palmer, President and CEO of Probe Mines. "From our technical team that has continued to advance and improve this deposit in the four years since its discovery, to the prospectors who brought us the property, Mike Tremblay and Jack Robert; Brian Atkinson, former OGS Regional Resident Geologist (Timmins); our Board of Directors; management and support teams; consultants and the First Nations and Chapleau communities - none of this would have been possible without them. On behalf of the entire Probe team, I would like to thank the PDAC for this incredible honour. As discoveries become scarcer, Borden exemplifies the importance of grass roots exploration and the potential that still exists within Canada to find high-quality and relevant deposits."

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Couer buy Wharf Mine from Goldcorp

Late reporting this one from 12th Jan
Couer moved to increase exposure to Gold from Silver announcing the acquisition of the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota from Goldcorp for $105m .
This follows on from their $146m acquisition of Paramount Gold & Silver in Mexico
The strategy of increasing exposure to gold by acquisition from a major follows Silver Standard's acquistion of the Marigold mine in Nevada from Barrick/Goldcorp. Of course Fresnillo has long been both silver and gold producer but recently increased the gold mix with acquisitions from Newmont, and Hecla purchased Aurizon Gold.

Monday, 19 January 2015

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2015

Cambridge House show in Vancouver began Jan 18th and continues Jan 19th.
Programme   Putting up Interviews

Company Lists - quite a few look dead, you'd think they would have a tidy up.
Some just need IR to get their stock tickers to work on yahoo and googlefinance.

Stock Price trackers below .......

Friday, 16 January 2015

Lithium Cost Curves

From Bacanora presentation -
Low oil prices will presumably dent the enthusiasm for electric cars for some time?

Kimble - Mining Stocks Bounce


Swiss Bank Decision Pops Gold

General view that this anticipates Euro QE at which point the pressure to track the Euro would be too great.
Harris' conjecture I find especially interesting
QE program, then, was no surprise. IN MY MIND SOMETHING ELSE IS IN THE AIR. Here’s my conjecture: At the coming ECB meeting, Mario Draghi announces the specifics of a large QE program and his resignation as he returns to Italy to serve as the Italian president. In his place, ECB Executive Board Member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is named ECB president. The Germans gain control of the ECB, which is a victory for Chancellor Merkel and calms the anti-ECB forces building in Germany. The QEprogram is put in place under German vigilance, which gives it great international credibility.
The French will be unhappy but the Dutch, French and Italians have served as ECB president so why not a German, especially as it will be German money providing the ECB‘s capital backstop. The EUROrallies as the steadfastness of Weidmann is appreciated  and the Swiss will be able to sell their massive European sovereign bond portfolio to a willing ECB buyer for very nice rates and eventually ease the burden of owning far too many euros. The SNB would cut their enormous losses and be able to calm the anger of its Swiss citizens.THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE BUT THAT IS WHAT PULLING THE PEG AND GOING TO 1% NEGATIVE RATES WAS TWO MONTHS AGO. Volatility anyone!?!?

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

John Doody - Interview

John Doody's Gold Stock Analyst is a premium priced letter often promoted by Stansberry and Agora.
Here is Bonner's long interview with Doody discussing selection and portfolio management criteria, including discussion of the contribution of rebalancing to performance in this volatile sector (389% over 13 years).
(Note- Mike Swanson has also recently come to focus on rebalancing Here and particularly Here)
The free samples and public monthly front pages show the stock universe analysed by Doody.

Brent Cook Interview

Interview at The Gold Report - covering a lot of the same ground as recent broadcasts, discussion of additional companies - Lakeshore, Premier, Kaminak, Reservoir, Pilot Gold
And more on peak gold mining lagging peak discovery

Eric Coffin Interview

Interview with Jay Taylor
Goldquest, Silvercrest, Columbus Gold, Precipitate Gold. Thoughts on Oil prices.

Sunday, 4 January 2015

Red Flags Mining Investors Should Heed - Graham Clow - Roscoe Postle Associates

A Northern Miner Article from Nov-14 has much to keep in mind. Based on "Potential Mining Pitfalls" Presentations to the Mineral Resource Analyst Group - MRAG
Part 1     Part 2
“There are a lot of capable people doing very good work,” he said. “And experience shows that in periods when markets are quieter, such as now, project results improve.” 
An RPA review of failed or troubled projects since 1985 identified 75 projects that failed to meet expectations, and of them: ........

John Kaiser - Canadian Juniors - Past & Future

As usual plenty of reading and charts from John Kaiser reviewing the history and potential futures for junior exploration - (Dating from AME-BC presentation Dec-14)

Cutting G&A - Ten things Miners can do to survive the Downturn

Mining Markets article from Nov-14

Saturday, 3 January 2015

Rick Rule Interview - Cut G&A Fat so there are Fewer More Solvent Players

Another interview with Tekoa Da Silva with Transcript

So a focus by the investor on the upside and the downside is what will allow the industry to thrive. As an example, in the TSXV, there are probably 400 or 500 surplus companies in Canada. As my friend Otto Rock says, please don’t feed the animals. Don’t give these guys any more money. Make them go to company heaven. Thank and excuse.
Think about it—500 companies at maybe $700,000 a year in general and administrative expenses including listing fees and auditing fees. That’s an enormous amount of money and every dime of it’s wasted. We need to cut this out of the industry so that there are fewer, better, more solvent players.