Sunday, 28 April 2013

Rick Rule Interviews

Rule seems to have been more active than usual on the interview circuit.
Indicates Sprott have $400m ready to invest, though some may suspect they are facing problems with redemptions which as Rule himself indicates drives selling in the most liquid stocks. There was something of a hit piece on Sprott in the Globe & Mail recently, there must be plenty of disappointed investors.

Rule suggests, as usual, that stock selection is critical but there are stocks with high potential; there may be further capitulation and a drift down through the summer doldrums before a gradual turn up after the summer.
Interview at CEO.CA - HERE
Interview at Bull Market Thinking HERE

Saturday, 13 April 2013

Goldman and SocGen Bearish Gold Notes

Bearish notes from first SocGen and then Goldman this month are seen as some part of the plunge in gold on Friday.

Bill Cara has them posted in full
SocGen - HERE
Goldman - HERE

Some thoughts from Gene Arensberg - Are Goldman "initiating" a short position as this chart reaches the highest levels in years?

Friday, 5 April 2013

Troy Bid for Azimuth in Guyana

Australian companies (also listed on Toronto) Troy and Azimuth are looking to combine, using Troy's cash, cashflow from production, and recent mine building experience, to develop Azimuth's near surface relatively high grade (3g/T) deposit in Guyana.
Troy's stock has been weak, along with many other gold miners', recently with added concerns around operations in Argentina.
The deal would value Azimuth at $188m, a 60% premium similar to Troy's Market CAP.
Troy's stock traded at A$2.40-2.50 pre-announcement, down to A$1.90 today giving an MCap of A$173m

Article at Mineweb - HERE
Broker Note at Resources Roadhouse - HERE

Japan to double Monetary Base - $1.4 Trillion QE - Currency Crisis to Follow?

Retuters Report - HERE

Kyle Bass - Currency Crisis forecast - HERE
Reuters : The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economyin less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows..................more...................

QE will never be Reversed - Woodford

Report by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Daily Telegraph - HERE (well worth reading in full)

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.
"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".
He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.
"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.
Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

Monday, 1 April 2013

John Doody on Gold Stocks

Doody writes the Gold Stock Analyst. Discusses looking for miners HERE which;

  • Are proven producers or are very near commencing production (avoid unproven exploration plays)
  • Have big existing cash flows or are projected to grow their cash flows quickly in the next few years
  • Compare favorably to their peer group on the following ratios:
    • market cap/ounce in reserves
    • market cap/cash flow
    • net margin
  • Do not dilute their share base (this has been a huge problem in past years)
  • Report an "all-in cash-cost" in their accounting. $900 or less is desired.