Tuesday, 31 January 2012

Gold Miners in a Safe Jurisdiction - Don Coxe Basic Points - Mainstream Investors Look to the Gold Miners

Reported by Mineweb :
Don Coxe, a widely followed and respected Canadian investment manager, in his Basic Pointsurges investors to emphasize miners over bullion. The key quote,

"What was most hurting gold shares recently have been the high-profile price plunges for shares of some high-profile producers with reserves in the ground in politically risky regions," Coxe noted. "It is absurd that investors are selling shares of companies which have, as a matter of policy, avoided investing in those high-risk countries."
"These disappointments should lead to huge outperformance for the companies who have the least endogenous risk, and we believe that will happen this year," he predicted.
"Gold has in the past decade evolved from being a curiosity to a speculative investment to a sound investment," Coxe said. "It is now becoming a necessary investment, as central banks print money prodigiously-and promise to continue."
"Emphasize the miners at the expensive of the bullion ETFs," Coxe stressed.

Friday, 27 January 2012

Junior Gold Miners and Explorers with a Major Mining Partner

Great investments and speculations in the junior gold and silver exploration space require identification of the strongest companies with greatest potential.

We can improve the odds that the high risks offer high rewards.

These junior explorers must hold great projects managed by great people.
If we can identify these companies early, at low market capitalisation values, then we improve the odds of high returns upon discovery and through development.
Equally we may buy cheaply through market cycles lows like 2011 and through company development cycles when the excitement wanes.

A great article by Brent Cook on the difficulties faced by junior explorers in this endeavour, the lifecycle of junior explorers, reminders of why the majors are hungry for new resources from the junior exploration teams and how we need to judge price and value as investors to ensure we are not buying whilst the smart are selling.

We can find these high potential juniors by following great management teams, I shall continuously update and welcome comments and feedback on the "Good People in Good Projects" page.

We can also follow activities of the Major and Mid-Tier gold and silver producers who partner, joint venture, and take stakes in the junior companies, where they see exciting high potential projects.
 I shall continue to update and welcome feedback and your thoughts on companies referenced on the
  "Junior Gold with a Major Mining Shareholder" page.

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Junior Gold Explorers - The Safest Ownership of Gold

Consider the write down of excess debt by devaluation of currencies, all currencies.
Devaluation against what if all currencies are to be devalued?
Against gold held by central banks and old money which needs to begin to move again.

Consider a point when the Gold price has advanced substantially in nominal terms.

Consider government actions to tax "windfall" profits on nominal gains made by the evil speculators and hoarders of the relic.
Tax the hoarders who took metal cheaply from the hands of the Cash for Gold party-goers and stuffers of broken gold into envelopes while gold prices bubbled.
Before they doubled.

Tax Owners of metals.

Tax producers of metal to maintain enough incentive for investment into production to earn at "utility" returns levels. (Jim Sinclair sees the gold stocks as the utilities of the future).
But tax the excess profits.
Pay off the deficit with the ill gotten gains of a lucky industry.

Then tax gold explorers?
Or promote exploration everywhere to encourage mine development and increase taxable production levels for governments.
To mine and print new money.
To tax ill gotten gains.
To recapitalise the banks with gold.

Explore, drill, discover your money supply.

In the meantime - bloody risky.

Please note - English irony; I think there's some truth in the above, but having endured 2011, junior gold miners felt anything but safe ....

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Gold and Silver Merger and Acquisition Targets - Pan American Silver / Minefinders

The announcement today that Pan American Silver will acquire Minefinders reinforces the opinion that as the market leaves junior gold and silver miners undervalued the miners will take advantage of that value and use high cashflows to make acquisitions.

As Rick Rule has discussed (with the usual good advice to make volatility your friend) we are in a discovery cycle and the majors need to replace resources which are now relatively cheap against their growing cashflows and declining reserves..

The Page on this blog "Merger & Acquisition Targets" highlights a number of key companies likely to be involved going forwards.

Thursday, 19 January 2012

PDAC 2012 Stock Price and Market Cap Spreadsheet

PDAC 2012 will be coming soon generating all sorts of excitement in the junior mining sector.

The new page on the blog -  PDAC 2012 - Core Shack -  lists all the current coreshack presenters and a spreadsheet shows market caps and price changes.

What will the top picks be?

If we are at the beginning of a new cycle in the gold price and miners move off their lows it is often the "new picks" which become stars rather than the big stories from the last cycle.

Which PDAC picks involve great people ?

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Good People in Good Projects - Darin Wagner, Balmoral Resources and Abzu Gold

My best investments have come from finding relatively low market capitalisation companies associated with successful mining mangers, geologists and key investors.
Of course previous success offers no guarantees in exploration, and maybe they just got lucky the first time, but we might presume that the best projects attract the best people.
Reading around many of the links on this site you should find reference to many of these companies and individuals


Previous Success : 
Merged / Sold  West Timmins Mining (WTM) to Lakeshore gold (LSG.TO) for $424 (300?)m in August 2009 after great discovery. 83m @ 12.75g/T 

Monday, 16 January 2012

Gold and Silver Juniors Newsletter Picks

Having read several newsletter writers I wonder how many others here find their picks and advice difficult to trade?

Clearly the most popular newsletter writers find it difficult to recommend the microcap stocks which deliver the most stunning returns, as high volumes of purchasing can distort the stock price, and as that purchasing subsides the stock price can crash leaving very disappointed subscribers.

So the typical subscriber, unless a committed day-trader, is left

a) Chasing higher prices

Thursday, 12 January 2012

Why Junior Gold Miners in 2012

I have invested in gold junior miners since the beginnings of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007.
I have done well but not sold enough at the tops when everyone got over-excited.

By nature I think I'm a buy & hold investor but going forwards I want to recognise that greed and fear much better.

Gold juniors are too easy to fall in love with, believe the story, the hope etc.
Equally it is far too easy to sell too soon when a big discovery is being made and the 10, 20, 100 baggers we all hope for really are there.

As Bob Hoye says "you have to trade them" after it's been "party time in the juniors".

The gold juniors are not "safe" investments, they are wildly volatile, but ultimately I do believe that a big bull market in gold will culminate in a mania where we will see enormous gains for gold, silver AND "gold in the ground".

So unless the end of 2010 peak in my gold exploration portfolio anticipated the silver peak of April 2011 and the gold peak of September 2011 I think there is more to come - Alf Fields' wave 3 of 3 to $4500 gold must surely this time drive the mining stocks much higher.

The deep crash of 2008 has us afraid that the same will happen again but is this the wall of worry we climb....?

A sensible approach would buy the seniors then rotate down through the juniors.
But once the juniors start to run it is so hard to buy something that has jumped 50%.
Positioning now is genuinely cheap.

Look at the market caps on the stock lists for the TSX / TSXv.

Which companies will make discoveries, be acquired, drive expectations and multiply our wealth?

Wednesday, 11 January 2012

A Junior Gold Miner journey

A search for junior gold miners and silver miners to make our fortune.....some day.
A long hard journey full of hope and fear. 
Who are the smart money?
Are we the bag holders?
The places to seek.
What we have found.

Tell me what you've learnt.
Tell me what you think.