Saturday, 30 March 2013

OT- Lyrics - Radiohead - Joy Division - Morrissey

For when you can't get a song out of your head, don't catch all the lyrics, or consider.
>>> Song Meanings HERE

Meanwhile Radiohead covering Joy Division. And Morrissey - Everyday is Like Sunday

Sunday, 24 March 2013

US Dollar Topping or Ready to Break Decade Long Downtrend?

Two views of the US Dollar considering a resumption of the downtrend in place since 2001, or a break to the upside.
If the dollar lifts will Gold lift with it or revert to the inverse?

Considering a US Dollar Top - HERE
Or a rise of The Dollar AND Gold - HERE

Friday, 22 March 2013

Eric Coffin - Resource Sector Paradigm Shift

Eric Coffin of Hard Rock Advisory on the state of the miners. HERE . Discusses the renewed focus on smaller higher margin deposits.

Another article HERE at Bloomberg suggesting break up of the large miners to release value, "shrink to grow" allowing smaller groups to replace reserves, show growth, provide cleaner geographical and management focus with less mines.

Perhaps the contrarian view is that there is value in large advanced resources which could advance with a new move in the gold price ahead of cost inflation. The majors, under pressure from shareholders due to recent failures, are afraid of big projects and there will be less demand and pressure on industry wide mine design, build and operating service costs leaving the field open for smaller companies and private capital.

As an example, consider Newmont's sale of the large Hope Bay project (acquired from Miramar in 2007 for $1.5bn for 10.7m oz resource) to privately held TMAC Resources. Directors at TMAC previously cashed out of FNX mining and are involved with Torex Gold, one of the strongest juniors. The Hope Bay project has sunk development costs which saw Newmont take a $1.6bn writedown when they put it on care and maintenance in 2012. One key risk appears to be in reaching agreements with First Nations. (and HERE) Some steps in developing these relationships with "KIA" look to be underway. TMAC may consider the project in a different way, concentrating on vein mining. Perhaps Hope Bay will also serve as a test case for First Nations to reach agreements knowing that miners will walk away from projects, especially in remote regions like Nunavut, north of the Arctic Circle.

Friday, 15 March 2013

Geologists At the Bar - PDAC

Good interview at PDAC with Ron Stewart - ex Dundee,  Doug Kirwin, Brent Cook, Simon Ridgway - Goldgroup, Gram Brown - Anglo American

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

GDXJ Breaking Downtrend?

Stewart Thompson's weekly review shows this chart

Some Miners Looking to Buy

Some successful miners are looking to Buy distressed assets

Archipelago - HERE

Mick Davies Looking to set up Xstrata 2.0 to buy distressed assets? - HERE

Teck Looking to Build Up gold Business - Involved with 100 Junior Companies - HERE

Hudbay Look to buy with Majors on the Sidelines - HERE

Sunday, 10 March 2013

Commitment of Traders - Gene Arensberg

Gene Arensberg at the "GotGoldReport" analyses the Commitment of Traders reports in depth, read the full article for charts etc....more.....

Saturday, 9 March 2013

Trading the miners

Good article at Vancouver Venture
Harbingers of a market bottom.
Pro-traders will be looking for the technical signs of a true turn before committing but I believe many are watching and will deploy significant funds against the negative sentiment levels.


Interesting chart from Bob Hoye
Article HERE

Gold, the Renmimbi and the Multi Reserve Currency System

Some see changes coming in the global currency system, China's and gold's place within it.
Here from the OMFIF

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

Turning High Risk into High Potential - Grant Thornton

Report on the Mining and Juniors sector HERE

The Monetary Base & Gold Prices

I have Added some links to the Blog, (below the gold price chart) tracking monetary base and Treasury operations
An interesting Review HERE with links to papers outlining unconventional monetary policy.
Will this latest break out in the monetary base see a delayed follow through in the gold price as seen previously?

Avondale Asset Management suggest a potential 2-3 month lag between expansion in the monetary base and gold prices. HERE

Tuesday, 5 March 2013

Peter Degraaf - Gold Review

Interesting collection of charts and indicators HERE
It has now been 78 weeks since gold reached a new all-time high price.  The correction of 2006 took 71 weeks.  The correction in 2008 took 77 weeks. 

This chart courtesy shows the current long vs short positions among hedge funds.  Here are the comments that came with the chart:  Managed money (ie hedge funds) is short of 47,357 gold contracts, a record, and can be seen as the red line in the chart below. There are 45 funds short – well over twice the average and very close to the record of 48. Furthermore, their net long position (green line) is close to all-time lows. Interestingly, the last time managed funds held record shorts was in May 2012, when gold bottomed out at $1,540 before rallying to the $1,800 October high

Monday, 4 March 2013

PDAC - 2013 Companies

The year's biggest Mining Convention is underway in Toronto over 4 days.
The miners and especially the juniors have much to prove.
Many analysts are looking for M&A and new discoveries to turn the market around and it is likely to be the junior companies to deliver this as compelling bid targets or making new finds.
In the current environment cash is king for the juniors, holding it on their balance sheets or the ability to raise it without excessive dilution.
More ......

Sunday, 3 March 2013

Rule - Cook - Kaiser - Fulp at Cambridge house Palm Springs Conference

Much of the same ground as previous interviews but all on one panel....

Mine Construction - On Time & Under Budget

Recent failures to successfully deliver projects, by a number of miners from senior to junior, have centred on project management. Failures of control and management by managers, directors and owners on the ground.

Silvercrest will present at PDAC on how they feel they have done it right. 
It probably helps that they had a smaller project and could grip the detail.

The small contingent of stocks succeeding in this market are the growth producers who can deliver controlled, profitable growth moving good teams from one project to the next. Look for good levels of insider and management ownership to align interests.

Silvercrest's Summary........