Quinton Hennigh Interview

Hennigh is a geologist and company leader who has also teamed up with Brent cook at Exploration Insights. Interviewed here at CEOca

Discussing Novo Resources
Interested in Pretium, Dalradian and Roxgold

Rick Rule on Miners

Discusses what he is doing with his own money at KWN

About once every 10 years you come into a situation where you can buy high quality managements for the same prices that you can low quality managements.  That is the situation we are dealing with right now in the resource markets.

Gold Demand Trends - WGC Q1-13

Full Report available at the World Gold Council - HERE
A reminder of the critical role Indian and Chinese demand play

NY Hard Assets Conference Interviews

A number linked HERE, yet to watch and review

Junior Gold Quarterly Results

A roundup of Q1-13 Results - HERE

Peter Brandt - Wary of Remaining Bearish on Silver

Brandt has called the technical breakdown in Gold and Silver well since 2011.

Readers may recall this "Opus" previously, we should all have paid more attention.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/peter-brandt-30-years-of-chart-patterns.html

Today Brandt points to the Silver COT data as being typical of a bottom, though he is not yet bullish

CFTC COT data in major buy territory for Silver

Other traders are pointing to similar positioning in the Gold market, for example Geoff Goetz at Bill Cara.com

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/gold-commitment-of-traders-report-2/

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/four-pillars-trading-solution-gold/

Swanson Nibbling at the Miners

Mike Swanson has been a trader with a long term inclination to the miners who has stood aside for some time since 2011

He has published some good articles since the April gold plunge

This Is the Final Liquidation of the Gold Bug - Mike Swanson (04/14/2013)

Why The Gold Bear Attack Crash Really Happened - Mike Swanson (04/16/2013)

A Gold Pivot is Coming 

Buying Gold and Silver Stocks NEM, KGC, PAAS, HL, GDXJ - Mike Swanson (05/16/2013)

RIU Sydney Roundup

One of the bigger Aussie Resource Company Conferences - Watchlist below

OT - Peter Kay - Misheard Lyrics

Precious Metal Mining ETF - Company Watch Lists

Somewhere to watch the ETF component stocks for price changes, market caps and relative strength from 52 week highs and lows.
Beware multiple currencies and different exchange trading times (scroll right to see these).
A few odd results come out of google-finance, missing symbols where I have looked up Yahoo data or symbols without the usual exchange suffix.
Always double check the data !

See full lists below .....

Record Insider Buying in Juniors with Company Lists

Article - HERE

Company Lists - HERE - 

Brent Cook Q&A at Globe and Mail

Q&A from Brent Cook - HERE

My letter is about what I am doing w/ my money so it is therefore limited. I try to stick w/ the best--sometimes that works. But has been a rough year.

On Buying exploration and early developers now.

I would say yes, but very selectively. Know your company, its cash balance and plans... Better know what the company is looking at, what it could be worth and how much it would take to prove or disprove that thesis....................I suspect that when this market comes out of this the small profitable producers will do best. Exploration plays are tough to pick, at least ones that will work...

Likes B2 Gold and Fortuna. Lydian again. Likes team at North Country Gold but wary of Arctic location and capex. Wary of Lakeshore. Thinks Kirkland Lake will turnaround. Likes Midas & Belo Sun. Doesn't like Eco Oro.

Rick Rule Interviews

Rule seems to have been more active than usual on the interview circuit.
Indicates Sprott have $400m ready to invest, though some may suspect they are facing problems with redemptions which as Rule himself indicates drives selling in the most liquid stocks. There was something of a hit piece on Sprott in the Globe & Mail recently, there must be plenty of disappointed investors.

Rule suggests, as usual, that stock selection is critical but there are stocks with high potential; there may be further capitulation and a drift down through the summer doldrums before a gradual turn up after the summer.
Interview at CEO.CA - HERE
Interview at Bull Market Thinking HERE

Goldman and SocGen Bearish Gold Notes

Bearish notes from first SocGen and then Goldman this month are seen as some part of the plunge in gold on Friday.

Bill Cara has them posted in full
SocGen - HERE
Goldman - HERE

Some thoughts from Gene Arensberg - Are Goldman "initiating" a short position as this chart reaches the highest levels in years?

Gold Technicals and Sentiment

Good Review at the Acting Man Blog - HERE

Troy Bid for Azimuth in Guyana

Australian companies (also listed on Toronto) Troy and Azimuth are looking to combine, using Troy's cash, cashflow from production, and recent mine building experience, to develop Azimuth's near surface relatively high grade (3g/T) deposit in Guyana.
Troy's stock has been weak, along with many other gold miners', recently with added concerns around operations in Argentina.
The deal would value Azimuth at $188m, a 60% premium similar to Troy's Market CAP.
Troy's stock traded at A$2.40-2.50 pre-announcement, down to A$1.90 today giving an MCap of A$173m

Article at Mineweb - HERE
Broker Note at Resources Roadhouse - HERE

Japan to double Monetary Base - $1.4 Trillion QE - Currency Crisis to Follow?

Retuters Report - HERE

Kyle Bass - Currency Crisis forecast - HERE

Reuters : The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economyin less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows..................more...................

QE will never be Reversed - Woodford

Report by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Daily Telegraph - HERE (well worth reading in full)

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.

"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".

He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.

"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.

Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

John Doody on Gold Stocks

Doody writes the Gold Stock Analyst. Discusses looking for miners HERE which;

• Are proven producers or are very near commencing production (avoid unproven exploration plays)
• Have big existing cash flows or are projected to grow their cash flows quickly in the next few years
• Compare favorably to their peer group on the following ratios:
  • market cap/ounce in reserves
  • market cap/cash flow
  • net margin
• Do not dilute their share base (this has been a huge problem in past years)
• Report an "all-in cash-cost" in their accounting. $900 or less is desired.

Happy Easter

OT- Lyrics - Radiohead - Joy Division - Morrissey

For when you can't get a song out of your head, don't catch all the lyrics, or consider.
>>> Song Meanings HERE

Meanwhile Radiohead covering Joy Division. And Morrissey - Everyday is Like Sunday

BMO Global Metals & Mining 2013 Research

BMO 200pp Mining Research & Analysis covering >100 stock universe
HERE

Down But Not Out - PWC - Global Mining Deals 2012 Review / 2013 Outlook

PWC Mining - HERE

Report - HERE    Quotes follow.....

US Dollar Topping or Ready to Break Decade Long Downtrend?

Two views of the US Dollar considering a resumption of the downtrend in place since 2001, or a break to the upside.
If the dollar lifts will Gold lift with it or revert to the inverse?

Considering a US Dollar Top - HERE
Or a rise of The Dollar AND Gold - HERE

Eric Coffin - Resource Sector Paradigm Shift

Eric Coffin of Hard Rock Advisory on the state of the miners. HERE . Discusses the renewed focus on smaller higher margin deposits.

Another article HERE at Bloomberg suggesting break up of the large miners to release value, "shrink to grow" allowing smaller groups to replace reserves, show growth, provide cleaner geographical and management focus with less mines.

Perhaps the contrarian view is that there is value in large advanced resources which could advance with a new move in the gold price ahead of cost inflation. The majors, under pressure from shareholders due to recent failures, are afraid of big projects and there will be less demand and pressure on industry wide mine design, build and operating service costs leaving the field open for smaller companies and private capital.

As an example, consider Newmont's sale of the large Hope Bay project (acquired from Miramar in 2007 for $1.5bn for 10.7m oz resource) to privately held TMAC Resources. Directors at TMAC previously cashed out of FNX mining and are involved with Torex Gold, one of the strongest juniors. The Hope Bay project has sunk development costs which saw Newmont take a $1.6bn writedown when they put it on care and maintenance in 2012. One key risk appears to be in reaching agreements with First Nations. (and HERE) Some steps in developing these relationships with "KIA" look to be underway. TMAC may consider the project in a different way, concentrating on vein mining. Perhaps Hope Bay will also serve as a test case for First Nations to reach agreements knowing that miners will walk away from projects, especially in remote regions like Nunavut, north of the Arctic Circle.

Geologists At the Bar - PDAC

Good interview at PDAC with Ron Stewart - ex Dundee,  Doug Kirwin, Brent Cook, Simon Ridgway - Goldgroup, Gram Brown - Anglo American
HERE

GDXJ Breaking Downtrend?

Stewart Thompson's weekly review shows this chart
HERE 

Some Miners Looking to Buy

Some successful miners are looking to Buy distressed assets

Archipelago - HERE

Mick Davies Looking to set up Xstrata 2.0 to buy distressed assets? - HERE

Teck Looking to Build Up gold Business - Involved with 100 Junior Companies - HERE

Hudbay Look to buy with Majors on the Sidelines - HERE

Commitment of Traders - Gene Arensberg

Gene Arensberg at the "GotGoldReport" analyses the Commitment of Traders reports in depth, read the full article for charts etc....more.....
....

Trading the miners

Good article at Vancouver Venture

Harbingers of a market bottom.

Pro-traders will be looking for the technical signs of a true turn before committing but I believe many are watching and will deploy significant funds against the negative sentiment levels.

HUI : SPX

Interesting chart from Bob Hoye
Article HERE

Gold, the Renmimbi and the Multi Reserve Currency System

Some see changes coming in the global currency system, China's and gold's place within it.
Here from the OMFIF

Turning High Risk into High Potential - Grant Thornton

Report on the Mining and Juniors sector HERE

The Monetary Base & Gold Prices

I have Added some links to the Blog, (below the gold price chart) tracking monetary base and Treasury operations
An interesting Review HERE with links to papers outlining unconventional monetary policy.
Will this latest break out in the monetary base see a delayed follow through in the gold price as seen previously?

Avondale Asset Management suggest a potential 2-3 month lag between expansion in the monetary base and gold prices. HERE

Peter Degraaf - Gold Review

Interesting collection of charts and indicators HERE

It has now been 78 weeks since gold reached a new all-time high price.  The correction of 2006 took 71 weeks.  The correction in 2008 took 77 weeks. 

This chart courtesy Goldmoney.com shows the current long vs short positions among hedge funds.  Here are the comments that came with the chart:  Managed money (ie hedge funds) is short of 47,357 gold contracts, a record, and can be seen as the red line in the chart below. There are 45 funds short – well over twice the average and very close to the record of 48. Furthermore, their net long position (green line) is close to all-time lows. Interestingly, the last time managed funds held record shorts was in May 2012, when gold bottomed out at $1,540 before rallying to the $1,800 October high

PDAC - 2013 Companies

The year's biggest Mining Convention is underway in Toronto over 4 days.
The miners and especially the juniors have much to prove.
Many analysts are looking for M&A and new discoveries to turn the market around and it is likely to be the junior companies to deliver this as compelling bid targets or making new finds.
In the current environment cash is king for the juniors, holding it on their balance sheets or the ability to raise it without excessive dilution.
More ......

Rule - Cook - Kaiser - Fulp at Cambridge house Palm Springs Conference

Much of the same ground as previous interviews but all on one panel....

Mine Construction - On Time & Under Budget

Recent failures to successfully deliver projects, by a number of miners from senior to junior, have centred on project management. Failures of control and management by managers, directors and owners on the ground.

Silvercrest will present at PDAC on how they feel they have done it right. 

It probably helps that they had a smaller project and could grip the detail.

The small contingent of stocks succeeding in this market are the growth producers who can deliver controlled, profitable growth moving good teams from one project to the next. Look for good levels of insider and management ownership to align interests.

Silvercrest's Summary........

The World's 10 Most Prolific Gold Fields

A summary of the Top 10 HERE
Some would add the Ontario Camps in Canada HERE

Jurisdiction Risk - Fraser Institute Survey 2012/13

The comprehensive annual survey of mining jurisdictions is just out ........