Martin Luther King - I Have a Dream

On August 28th, 1963, at the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, Martin Luther King stepped to the podium in front of the Lincoln Memorial. Around 10 minutes into his speech, King sounded as though he were wrapping up when Mahalia Jackson, the gospel singer and King's friend, shouted: "Tell them about the dream Martin". He ignored her at first. Then she shouted again. He put the text to the left of the lectern, grabbed the podium and, after a pause more pregnant than most, started to riff.

King's adviser Clarence Jones turned to the person next to him and said: "Those people don't know it, but they're about to go to church."

It's 50 years since Martin Luther King gave the speech that stands as one of the nation's favourite addresses delivered by one of its most beloved figures. But "I have a dream" wasn't in the text of the speech and its mainstream popularity only grew after King was assassinated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038xmfr

To listen and read in full, 50 years ago today.
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/mlkihaveadream.htm

And some powerful images and readings by contemporary figures on BBC Radio 4, see links at the bottom of the BBC page for interviews and discussion.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23853578

Bulls on Gold and Miners

Quite a number identifying a bottom in gold and the miners.
After some of the better mining stocks are up well over 50%  ! Looking for pullbacks ....?     ...................more.........

Charts on Value in Gold Miners - Commercials - GOFO and Comex Stocks

Some interesting charts

Major Gold Producers and Developers - Roger Bade at Whitman Howard

These Reports are somewhat dated, from November 2012 and February 2013 but now seem rather prescient in their focus on economics at lower gold prices.
Indeed Bade seems fairly bearish on gold and the miners

We are on record as arguing that this is a sector steeped in mediocrity. The sector has focussed on production and per ounce valuations for too long and will be forced to focus on shareholders’ returns as competition increases for the investor dollar.

The Major Gold Producers - HERE  - and a review of the article HERE 
A good appendix at the end trending return on shareholders' funds.

The Major Gold Developers - HERE

Of course a turn and upward trend in gold prices may see leverage come back to marginal stocks

MORE DETAIL.....

Outlook for Exploration - Minex Consulting

HT to IKN 

A very comprehensive survey of trends in mineral exploration and discovery from Minex Consulting who also make available a large number of additional reports and some interesting sources / links

Emphasises the enormous increases in expenditures but limited paybacks in discovery and, again in the mining industry, cost increases at the exploration stage.......MORE

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Alamos Gold to Buy Esparanza Resources

Alamos Gold announced a friendly takeover of Esparanza Resources for approx C$69m having been recently beaten to the much larger Aurizon by Hecla.
Run by the ex Minefinders team (acquired by Pan American Silver) they could have sat on cash ($36m at end 2012) so what has prompted an immediate sale?
Again only a few very recent buyers will be making a profit on Esparanza even though the stock was up over 30%......MORE

Bernanke - Highly Accomodative Policy Needed for the Foreseeable Future

After all the happy talk

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100877586

Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continues to need highly accommodative monetary policy. Answering questions at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research Bernanke said that when looking at the Fed's dual mandate on employment and inflation more work needed to be done. He said the 7.6 percent unemployment rate probably "overstates the health of the labor market" and that inflation remains below the Fed's 2 percent target. Moreover, fiscal policy remains "quite restrictive," Bernanke said.

And just after Goldman and JP Morgan had called a bottom in commodities
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2013/07/02/jp-morgan-mimics-the-goldman-sachs-view-of-an-improving-commodity-outlook/

Gold Did This

Dollar Did This

Problems with Technical Disclosures - Ontario Securities Review

Report detailing problems with technical reports and disclosures.

Mineweb summary - HERE

Full OSC Review - HERE

Tocqueville Q2-13 Letter - John Hathaway

Linked HERE

We observe profound internal change within the industry which suggests to us that the strongest companies will deliver compelling upside performance when the metals markets turn. These changes include substantial scale backs of capital spending and other measures to preserve cash and reduce expenses. As managers, we are focusing on companies with the strongest financials and best assets.

short positions of these traders are higher than at the bottom in 2008 (chart below), after which gold rallied 167% and mining shares 256% (basis XAU)

The Forces That Will Drive the Next Bull Market in Gold and Silver - Larry Edelson

Edelson has been a long term gold bull but rightly very bearish since 2011 expecting a "normal" 2 year correction of the long bull run, he took criticism in 2011 for becoming bearish ahead of the top.
He puts forward a strong case for the key drivers of the bull going forwards and suggests some new correlations. He suggests that war cycles are a key driver going forwards. Money printing will be less significant as the financial holes are so large they cannot be filled and that realisation, and defaults and bail ins, will drive the flight to safety. He sees inflation is some way off, 2015-6,  but the hoarding of supply will drive prices up in precious metals.
Linked - HERE

In other recent articles he has looked to find major support  at $1028 - HERE

Pierre Lassonde Calls for a 50% rebound in the Miners

One of the most respected leaders in the Gold Mining Industry, Pierre Lassonde, suggests we are within 5% of the bottom and suggests a big bounce into September - See Link HERE

“So my feeling is we are seeing the maximum stress right now.  I think $1,200, plus or minus $30 is where you are going to see the bottom in gold.”.............. I started buying this week.  I think there are a number of gold equities that are absolute bargains.  The liquidity trap has forced a lot of funds to sell.  But money is still leaving the sector.  That’s one of the reasons you are seeing this amount of stress. But I am absolutely 100% convinced that come September gold is going to be 20% to 30% higher than it is today and the stocks are going to be 50% higher.  So what am I doing?  Yes, now is the time to put money to work and that’s what I’m doing.”

Mike Shedlock Buys Basket of Large Gold & Silver Miners

Mike Shedlock is a prolific financial commentator with a deflationist perspective. However he has long had a constructive view on gold during deflation. He notes a recent  "significant" investment in gold and silver miners where he states

I believe precious metal miners represent true value, but I cannot state when the market will come to the same conclusion.

Full details - HERE

Also points to "Acting Man" discussing the "Plague of Gold Bears" - HERE

It is really quite remarkable: for ten years while gold did nothing but go up, most of these these guys were largely silent. Their gold price forecasts were on average dead wrong with unwavering regularity - they kept predicting price declines. Then, as it approached its peak, they suddenly turned bullish and finally raised their price targets (again, on average). Now that it is going through the first major correction since the bull market began, its decline is accompanied by inordinate sound and fury. No other market has produced such a flurry of widely and loudly telegraphed grave dancing.

The Formation of the Gold Price - Robert Blumen

A detailed discussion of gold price drivers
HERE

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle - 2013 - In Gold we Trust

The latest in a series of wide ranging reviews of the gold market by Stoeferle. - Linked  HERE

Funds - Opening and Closing

As one fund closes due to redemptions - Taurus Funds in Australia - HERE
Another suggests it's time to invest - Vulpes Investment out of Singapore under previous Artradis traders - HERE

“At no time in the past 12 years, realistically, have I seen the broader macro picture line up more positively in favor of rising gold prices,” Williams said March 5. “Right now, the perception is we don’t need the protection that gold offers. My contention is the risks essentially have never been higher.”  Vulpes founder Diggle was once Singapore’s biggest hedge- fund manager at Artradis Fund Management Pte, where he made $2.7 billion for investors during 2007 and 2008. Williams also worked with him at Artradis.

PWC and E&Y Mining Reports

Two interesting reports out recently

Junior Gold M&A - New Gold to Acquire Rainy River

New Gold's offer for Rainy River (News - Link - in full pasted below) saw a 35% jump in price yesterday, however only recent buyers, or those from many years ago, will be making an immediate profit. The deal is a variable mix of cash and stock valued at approximately $310m net of RR's $90m cash.  ....more.......

World Resource Investment Conference Vancouver 2013

Presentations and Interviews Linked HERE
List of exhibitors below. Hard to be sure in this environment whether those still exhibiting paid upfront and continue, have something new they are keen to promote or are urgently seeking cash - check the balancesheets.
Including Brent Cook suggesting a major miner will fail or at least close mines. Midtiers B2, Yamana etc can pick what they want as a buying opportunity - Many gold miners have $1300-$1500 all in costs, many cutting exploration and development.  Compares to the long 97-2002 bust - won't be pulled out by money pumping like 2008, investment is elsewhere in the stockmarket. Buying good economic deposits in the meantime. Renewed focus on juniors' management, cash, business plan.

Gold Stocks

Steve Sjuggerud's review of Gold stock potential - HERE

"Gold stocks are a better trade today than they were at the bottom in 2008," the best trader I know told the crowd last week.

Increasing Short Positions in Gold

From Moneyweek - HERE
Derived from Zerohedge - HERE

Soros buys Call Options on Gold Juniors GDXJ

While Bloomberg discussed a reduced holding of GLD Soros was taking a bigger bet on the Miners and even more aggressively buying $25m call options on the juniors amongst over $200m in gold positions.

HERE

Quinton Hennigh Interview

Hennigh is a geologist and company leader who has also teamed up with Brent cook at Exploration Insights. Interviewed here at CEOca

Discussing Novo Resources
Interested in Pretium, Dalradian and Roxgold

Rick Rule on Miners

Discusses what he is doing with his own money at KWN

About once every 10 years you come into a situation where you can buy high quality managements for the same prices that you can low quality managements.  That is the situation we are dealing with right now in the resource markets.

Gold Demand Trends - WGC Q1-13

Full Report available at the World Gold Council - HERE
A reminder of the critical role Indian and Chinese demand play

NY Hard Assets Conference Interviews

A number linked HERE, yet to watch and review

Junior Gold Quarterly Results

A roundup of Q1-13 Results - HERE

Peter Brandt - Wary of Remaining Bearish on Silver

Brandt has called the technical breakdown in Gold and Silver well since 2011.

Readers may recall this "Opus" previously, we should all have paid more attention.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/peter-brandt-30-years-of-chart-patterns.html

Today Brandt points to the Silver COT data as being typical of a bottom, though he is not yet bullish

CFTC COT data in major buy territory for Silver

Other traders are pointing to similar positioning in the Gold market, for example Geoff Goetz at Bill Cara.com

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/gold-commitment-of-traders-report-2/

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/four-pillars-trading-solution-gold/

Swanson Nibbling at the Miners

Mike Swanson has been a trader with a long term inclination to the miners who has stood aside for some time since 2011

He has published some good articles since the April gold plunge

This Is the Final Liquidation of the Gold Bug - Mike Swanson (04/14/2013)

Why The Gold Bear Attack Crash Really Happened - Mike Swanson (04/16/2013)

A Gold Pivot is Coming 

Buying Gold and Silver Stocks NEM, KGC, PAAS, HL, GDXJ - Mike Swanson (05/16/2013)

RIU Sydney Roundup

One of the bigger Aussie Resource Company Conferences - Watchlist below

OT - Peter Kay - Misheard Lyrics

Precious Metal Mining ETF - Company Watch Lists

Somewhere to watch the ETF component stocks for price changes, market caps and relative strength from 52 week highs and lows.
Beware multiple currencies and different exchange trading times (scroll right to see these).
A few odd results come out of google-finance, missing symbols where I have looked up Yahoo data or symbols without the usual exchange suffix.
Always double check the data !

See full lists below .....

Record Insider Buying in Juniors with Company Lists

Article - HERE

Company Lists - HERE - 

Brent Cook Q&A at Globe and Mail

Q&A from Brent Cook - HERE

My letter is about what I am doing w/ my money so it is therefore limited. I try to stick w/ the best--sometimes that works. But has been a rough year.

On Buying exploration and early developers now.

I would say yes, but very selectively. Know your company, its cash balance and plans... Better know what the company is looking at, what it could be worth and how much it would take to prove or disprove that thesis....................I suspect that when this market comes out of this the small profitable producers will do best. Exploration plays are tough to pick, at least ones that will work...

Likes B2 Gold and Fortuna. Lydian again. Likes team at North Country Gold but wary of Arctic location and capex. Wary of Lakeshore. Thinks Kirkland Lake will turnaround. Likes Midas & Belo Sun. Doesn't like Eco Oro.

Rick Rule Interviews

Rule seems to have been more active than usual on the interview circuit.
Indicates Sprott have $400m ready to invest, though some may suspect they are facing problems with redemptions which as Rule himself indicates drives selling in the most liquid stocks. There was something of a hit piece on Sprott in the Globe & Mail recently, there must be plenty of disappointed investors.

Rule suggests, as usual, that stock selection is critical but there are stocks with high potential; there may be further capitulation and a drift down through the summer doldrums before a gradual turn up after the summer.
Interview at CEO.CA - HERE
Interview at Bull Market Thinking HERE

Goldman and SocGen Bearish Gold Notes

Bearish notes from first SocGen and then Goldman this month are seen as some part of the plunge in gold on Friday.

Bill Cara has them posted in full
SocGen - HERE
Goldman - HERE

Some thoughts from Gene Arensberg - Are Goldman "initiating" a short position as this chart reaches the highest levels in years?

Gold Technicals and Sentiment

Good Review at the Acting Man Blog - HERE

Troy Bid for Azimuth in Guyana

Australian companies (also listed on Toronto) Troy and Azimuth are looking to combine, using Troy's cash, cashflow from production, and recent mine building experience, to develop Azimuth's near surface relatively high grade (3g/T) deposit in Guyana.
Troy's stock has been weak, along with many other gold miners', recently with added concerns around operations in Argentina.
The deal would value Azimuth at $188m, a 60% premium similar to Troy's Market CAP.
Troy's stock traded at A$2.40-2.50 pre-announcement, down to A$1.90 today giving an MCap of A$173m

Article at Mineweb - HERE
Broker Note at Resources Roadhouse - HERE

Japan to double Monetary Base - $1.4 Trillion QE - Currency Crisis to Follow?

Retuters Report - HERE

Kyle Bass - Currency Crisis forecast - HERE

Reuters : The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economyin less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows..................more...................

QE will never be Reversed - Woodford

Report by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Daily Telegraph - HERE (well worth reading in full)

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.

"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".

He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.

"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.

Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

John Doody on Gold Stocks

Doody writes the Gold Stock Analyst. Discusses looking for miners HERE which;

• Are proven producers or are very near commencing production (avoid unproven exploration plays)
• Have big existing cash flows or are projected to grow their cash flows quickly in the next few years
• Compare favorably to their peer group on the following ratios:
  • market cap/ounce in reserves
  • market cap/cash flow
  • net margin
• Do not dilute their share base (this has been a huge problem in past years)
• Report an "all-in cash-cost" in their accounting. $900 or less is desired.