Bernanke Speech Jackson Hole 2012 - Options at the Zero Bound

The full text of Bernanke's speech of 31st August which seems to have convinced the market that more easing will be forthcoming. Gold up by $36 to $1,691 breaking resistance levels.

Also an interesting Jackson Hole presentation by Michael Woodford on Central Bank options at the zero bound, particularly around Nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting supporting fiscal stimulus.

A Banker's Look at Gold and Gold Mining

Interesting article from a banker at Standard Chartered on funding for the Gold Juniors.
Discussing West Africa in particular, see the "Regional Exploration" Page for Explorers there.

Gold Mining M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions

As suggested here early in 2012 the juniors are seeing considerable M&A activity in 2012.

The concern would be that failures in the seniors, which have seen CEO's depart, may make new heads over-cautious.   More .....

Brent Cook on Barkerville

The controversy surrounding Barkerville continues.
Brent Cook's review of their resource statement courtesy of IKN.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/brent-cook-on-barkerville-bgmv-from.html

And Quinton' Hennigh's earlier view (also of Exploration Insights, courtesy Inca Kola News.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/barkerville-gold-news.html

What has been odd is the strength of the price rebound, but once the cease trade order ends.....?

Gold Stock Reflexivity

A consideration of George Soros' theories of  "reflexivity" applied to gold development stocks.

.......application to gold development stocks: when a company with a gold project trades with a high equity value, potential buyers assign high values to the project and the company, confident that the company will be able to finance the project.  In fact, the higher the stock goes, the easier it is to finance the project, and, therefore, the more value the project has to the company, and the more valuable the company.

However, if the market corrects lower and the value of the company shrinks, then financial observers will question how the company will finance the project, and therefore assign a lower value to the company, forcing the stock lower, reducing the value of the company, etc.

Worth reading in full.

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Myrmikan_Update_2012_08_14.pdf

Brent Cook - Not Grade - Margin

Interview with Brent Cook. Emphasising issues with the quality of feasability studies and why margin and profits in mining don't just reflect deposit grades.
http://www.smallcappower.com/articles/brent-cook-expert-interview-17.html

Cook mentions a couple of stocks he regularly discusses, Lydian (LYD) and Belo Sun (BSX)

Part of a series
http://www.smallcappower.com/expert_corner.aspx

China's hunt for Gold

Interest in gold miner African Barrick, and others, from China.

Reports in the Wall Street Journal, the FT and the source in Qiushi Magazine, a Chinese Communist Party Central Committee academic journal communicating ideology to officials are linked below.

OT - Lake District

The sun is a little rare in these parts, but Ullswater in the sun is wonderful.
Here climbing up from Glenridding.

Olympic Gold - Closing Ceremony

Picks of the Games

Eric Coffin - Stocks to Watch - August 2012

Eric Coffin Interview with Scott Gibson  - "Beneath the Surface".
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/08/scott-gibson-with-eric-coffin-stocks-to-watch-and-why.html

Failures in the Senior Gold Miners

The recent departures of Chief Executives at major gold miners points to failures in the industry and perhaps more to weak share price performances over the past few years relative to gold.
The XAU:Gold ratio tells the tale

Global Gold Mines & Deposits 2012

A large review of global 1m oz gold mines and deposits, including ownership and grades.
Remember grade can be deep or shallow so cannot simplistically indicate the economics of  recovery, but as full a list as I think I've seen made publicly available.

http://www.nrh.co.il/i/pdf/NRH_Research_2012%20World_Gold_Deposits.pdf

Got to Love Discovery

The junior miners and explorers may not have the wind behind them, but a good discovery can reap great rewards. I like to folow good people in good jurisdictions to enter during those long boring basing periods you see in the charts. Probably not ones to buy today, GQC shows how they pull back for entry points.
Two excellent holes reported today.

One from Nevada, (see the "Regional Exploration" Page here)

Greg Hahn's Canamex discovers 118m @ 4g/t in Nevada - use Brent Cook's drill interval calculator to work out the significance of the high grade
http://www.canamex.us/?page_id=7

Canamex CSQ.v

And Goldquest, as followed by Hard Rock Advisory, continue discovery at Romero in the Dominican Republic. 159m at 4.5g gold plus 1% copper
http://www.goldquestcorp.com/index.php/news

Goldquest GQC.v

Gold Coiling....

Looking for something to break gold from it's coil, against some of the most negative sentiment seen..... A good review by Geoff at Cara Community.

http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-jul-18-2012

Gold Juniors to Outperform?

Stewart Thomson sees potential for the gold juniors to outperform.
Though as ever cautions us to be ready to buy all the way down!

1. The junior gold stock sector seems to be revving its engine the loudest of all. To get a visual picture of why I hear that sound, please click here now.
   
2. I’ve compared GDXJ to CDNX, and you can see that a head & shoulders bottom pattern has formed, suggesting that junior gold stocks are poised to significantly outperform the general junior resource sector.

In full ....

 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_071712.html

Gold Stocks - Bottom,Re- test, Launch ?

Adam Brochert was wisely very cautious on the miners in 2011 but is suggesting the turn here.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1342445382.php

Michael Pento - Major Fed Move - Gold to Skyrocket

Michael Pento discusses the Bernanke Fed delving deeper into the playbook from the famous helicopter speech

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/8_This_Major_Fed_Move_Is_About_To_Cause_Gold_To_Skyrocket.html

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Of course this may be wild speculation.
However the use of non-conventional policy beyond another simple QEn may well be called for and not "register" with the public as "printing" in the run up to US Elections.

Recalling Bernanke's speech about deflation (link above)

In Gold We Trust - Erste Bank - Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

A wide ranging view of the case for Gold, updated 2012.

http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/erste_2012_07_11.pdf

We believe that mining shares currently represent a high-leverage bet on the gold price with an extremely attractive risk/return profile. Strong balance sheets, high free cash flows, a substantial increase in margins, low debt levels, and rising dividends all speak in favor of the sector. There are also only a few sectors that are more underweighted by investors. We therefore believe that the current, historically low valuations offer a good opportunity to invest......

Tocqueville Gold Q2 2012 Letter- John Hathaway

Worth reading John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold's quarterly letter, and the wide assortment of charts and trends putting the current market into perspective.

.......we believe that the weight of all evidence as discussed in the following paragraphs provides a substantial basis to suggest the stage has been set for a resumption of gold’s multi year advance.......It is in the nature of all  bull markets, and (perversely) especially so for precious metals, to shake out as many as possible along the way to minimize participation to the fewest possible stalwarts.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/hathaway070512.pdf

   

Gold Technicals

A technical overview of Gold by Justin Smyth at Gold Eagle.

Considers the important Resistance/Support of the 400 level in the Hui, highlighting bullish monthly hammer candles, we appear to have bounced around here again today.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/smyth070512.html

Picking through the Rubble of the Juniors

Kip Keen at Mineweb with a review of the junior sector. - HERE

Mineweb also review a few recent IPOs - HERE


I am currently preparing a review of British Columbia exploration, quite a number of IPOs and significant exploration activity there.

Jim Sinclair calls $3500 Gold

Jim Sinclair called for $1650 gold by January 2011 many years ahead of time, while it was ridiculed as a crazy target, and missed by a matter of only months.
His emphatic, conviction style can divide opinion.
Known as "Mr Gold" he traded, perhaps drove, the 1970's gold bull market, and he exited at the top.
This time around he is seeking leverage from the miners (previous post).
Below he makes his call for $3500 in the next 1-3 years.

Gold Buyers?

Byron Wien quotes "The Smartest Man in Europe", (Harry Schultz? suggested in comments, I had thought Soros)

Barkerville Gold News

Otto at Inca Kola News has Quinton Hennigh's take on the rather unconventional news release put out by Barkerville last week declaring a 10m oz plus high grade gold resource.

Quinton Hennigh is a very well regarded economic geologist who has joined Brent Cook at the Exploration Insights newsletter, already regarded as one of the best.

He raises a number of red flags around the Barkerville news release - HERE

Brent Cook Gold Stock Picks

Brent Cook is a very well regarded Economic Geologist who has advised particular caution in the juniors since late 2011. He has a premium paid service, which also offers much free insight at
https://www.explorationinsights.com/

His latest interview at The Gold Report, well worth reading in full......

Bill Gross - Pimco - Clean Dirty Shirts not forever thus

Bill Gross, the "Bond King" at Pimco highlighting the safety / risk dynamic of US government debt.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Whats-In-A-Name.aspx

Gold as Tier 1 Asset - You read it here first

Well actually you'd have read it at FT Alphaville, reporting on gold's consideration for Tier 1 Asset status, held as collateral at 100% of value, discussed here
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/gold-as-good-collateral-dark-inventory.html

This story has been picked up a lot more since, for example
http://moneymorning.com/2012/06/27/while-banks-crumble-next-leg-up-for-gold-prices-draws-near/

The US FDIC is considering the BIS proposals
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2012/fil12027.html

Updated Gold Explorer Valuation Tables

Updated at Stockhouse.

Emphasises the importance of likely capital costs and production costs/oz before judging under-valuation on a simplistic EV/oz basis.

The Golden Dilemma

I am bookmarking this to read more thoroughly, the conclusions seem to point to gold being "under-owned" by general investors and emerging market central banks, a commonly stated view of the gold market. The authors see this driving prices higher as ownership changes.

Something I have never really understood is who owns the world's 130,000 tonnes or so of gold now. The Central Banks and ETFs hold at most 1/3 ?

Who will be selling at higher prices to those who are currently under-invested?

Link HERE

US Long Bonds - 20 Year Chart

As discussed by Geoff at Cara Community

Consider hard - Time to buy or sell Government debt (bonds) ?

Cara's trade of the generation, trade gold for bonds

Parsing FOMC June 2012

FT Alphaville analyses the June FOMC statement   -   Here

Monthly Gold Pattern Bullish

Good charts at Fractal Gold, showing consolidation triangle in gold since Sept-11, though Nichols warns of a potential dip to $1400 to slingshot back.
FOMC 20th June should set direction

Interviews - Brent Cook - Rick Rule - John Kaiser - Gene Arensberg

HT My Own Market Narrative for Interviews from Cambridge House Exhibition in Vancouver June 2012.  - Here


Interview with Gene Arensberg at Got Gold. Sorry cheesy format but I like his approach. Here

Bank of England and SNB Easing

Good Review At Acting Man


Mervyn King's Mansion House Speech

Gavyn Davies - Doves Ready to launch QE3 - 75% Probability Goldman

QE3 increasingly probable?

Goldminers and Royalty Companies Piling Up Cash - Driving Mergers & Acquisitions ?

Discussion of Australian Gold miners piling up cash.
Here


And here suggestions that the Royalty companies are in a strong position to fund juniors.

The Bull Case for Gold Mining Stocks - PragCap

A well presented case for the miners, well timed, written mid May

Gold Junior Economics - Staged development

A number of juniors revisiting production studies to reduce initial capital and allow staged investment to production.
Interesting article here.
Some of the very small juniors are targeting near term production to fund further development.

John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold Fund - Gold Miners to Lead

An excellent interview with John Hathaway anticipating Tocquville's report to come out on 30th June.

Bob Hoye - A New Bull Market for Gold Stocks? Gold Miners are Winners during Deflation

An Interview with Bob Hoye discussing the "post bubble deflation" and the increase in the real price of gold driving profits for the miners.