Friday, 28 June 2013

The Forces That Will Drive the Next Bull Market in Gold and Silver - Larry Edelson

Edelson has been a long term gold bull but rightly very bearish since 2011 expecting a "normal" 2 year correction of the long bull run, he took criticism in 2011 for becoming bearish ahead of the top.
He puts forward a strong case for the key drivers of the bull going forwards and suggests some new correlations. He suggests that war cycles are a key driver going forwards. Money printing will be less significant as the financial holes are so large they cannot be filled and that realisation, and defaults and bail ins, will drive the flight to safety. He sees inflation is some way off, 2015-6,  but the hoarding of supply will drive prices up in precious metals.
Linked - HERE

In other recent articles he has looked to find major support  at $1028 - HERE

Pierre Lassonde Calls for a 50% rebound in the Miners

One of the most respected leaders in the Gold Mining Industry, Pierre Lassonde, suggests we are within 5% of the bottom and suggests a big bounce into September - See Link HERE
“So my feeling is we are seeing the maximum stress right now.  I think $1,200, plus or minus $30 is where you are going to see the bottom in gold.”.............. I started buying this week.  I think there are a number of gold equities that are absolute bargains.  The liquidity trap has forced a lot of funds to sell.  But money is still leaving the sector.  That’s one of the reasons you are seeing this amount of stress. But I am absolutely 100% convinced that come September gold is going to be 20% to 30% higher than it is today and the stocks are going to be 50% higher.  So what am I doing?  Yes, now is the time to put money to work and that’s what I’m doing.”

Mike Shedlock Buys Basket of Large Gold & Silver Miners

Mike Shedlock is a prolific financial commentator with a deflationist perspective. However he has long had a constructive view on gold during deflation. He notes a recent  "significant" investment in gold and silver miners where he states
I believe precious metal miners represent true value, but I cannot state when the market will come to the same conclusion.
Full details - HERE

Also points to "Acting Man" discussing the "Plague of Gold Bears" - HERE
It is really quite remarkable: for ten years while gold did nothing but go up, most of these these guys were largely silent. Their gold price forecasts were on average dead wrong with unwavering regularity - they kept predicting price declines. Then, as it approached its peak, they suddenly turned bullish and finally raised their price targets (again, on average). Now that it is going through the first major correction since the bull market began, its decline is accompanied by inordinate sound and fury. No other market has produced such a flurry of widely and loudly telegraphed grave dancing.

The Formation of the Gold Price - Robert Blumen

A detailed discussion of gold price drivers
HERE

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle - 2013 - In Gold we Trust

The latest in a series of wide ranging reviews of the gold market by Stoeferle. - Linked  HERE

Sunday, 16 June 2013

Funds - Opening and Closing

As one fund closes due to redemptions - Taurus Funds in Australia - HERE
Another suggests it's time to invest - Vulpes Investment out of Singapore under previous Artradis traders - HERE
“At no time in the past 12 years, realistically, have I seen the broader macro picture line up more positively in favor of rising gold prices,” Williams said March 5. “Right now, the perception is we don’t need the protection that gold offers. My contention is the risks essentially have never been higher.”  Vulpes founder Diggle was once Singapore’s biggest hedge- fund manager at Artradis Fund Management Pte, where he made $2.7 billion for investors during 2007 and 2008. Williams also worked with
him at Artradis. 

Saturday, 1 June 2013

Junior Gold M&A - New Gold to Acquire Rainy River

New Gold's offer for Rainy River (News - Link - in full pasted below) saw a 35% jump in price yesterday, however only recent buyers, or those from many years ago, will be making an immediate profit. The deal is a variable mix of cash and stock valued at approximately $310m net of RR's $90m cash.  ....more.......

Thursday, 30 May 2013

World Resource Investment Conference Vancouver 2013

Presentations and Interviews Linked HERE
List of exhibitors below. Hard to be sure in this environment whether those still exhibiting paid upfront and continue, have something new they are keen to promote or are urgently seeking cash - check the balancesheets.
Including Brent Cook suggesting a major miner will fail or at least close mines. Midtiers B2, Yamana etc can pick what they want as a buying opportunity - Many gold miners have $1300-$1500 all in costs, many cutting exploration and development.  Compares to the long 97-2002 bust - won't be pulled out by money pumping like 2008, investment is elsewhere in the stockmarket. Buying good economic deposits in the meantime. Renewed focus on juniors' management, cash, business plan.


Gold Stocks

Steve Sjuggerud's review of Gold stock potential - HERE
"Gold stocks are a better trade today than they were at the bottom in 2008," the best trader I know told the crowd last week.

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Soros buys Call Options on Gold Juniors GDXJ

While Bloomberg discussed a reduced holding of GLD Soros was taking a bigger bet on the Miners and even more aggressively buying $25m call options on the juniors amongst over $200m in gold positions.

HERE

Friday, 17 May 2013

Quinton Hennigh Interview

Hennigh is a geologist and company leader who has also teamed up with Brent cook at Exploration Insights. Interviewed here at CEOca

Discussing Novo Resources
Interested in Pretium, Dalradian and Roxgold

Rick Rule on Miners

Discusses what he is doing with his own money at KWN
About once every 10 years you come into a situation where you can buy high quality managements for the same prices that you can low quality managements.  That is the situation we are dealing with right now in the resource markets.

Thursday, 16 May 2013

Gold Demand Trends - WGC Q1-13

Full Report available at the World Gold Council - HERE
A reminder of the critical role Indian and Chinese demand play






NY Hard Assets Conference Interviews

A number linked HERE, yet to watch and review

Junior Gold Quarterly Results

A roundup of Q1-13 Results - HERE

Peter Brandt - Wary of Remaining Bearish on Silver

Brandt has called the technical breakdown in Gold and Silver well since 2011.

Readers may recall this "Opus" previously, we should all have paid more attention.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/peter-brandt-30-years-of-chart-patterns.html

Today Brandt points to the Silver COT data as being typical of a bottom, though he is not yet bullish

CFTC COT data in major buy territory for Silver


Other traders are pointing to similar positioning in the Gold market, for example Geoff Goetz at Bill Cara.com

Swanson Nibbling at the Miners

Mike Swanson has been a trader with a long term inclination to the miners who has stood aside for some time since 2011

He has published some good articles since the April gold plunge


This Is the Final Liquidation of the Gold Bug - Mike Swanson (04/14/2013)




RIU Sydney Roundup

One of the bigger Aussie Resource Company Conferences - Watchlist below

Thursday, 2 May 2013

Precious Metal Mining ETF - Company Watch Lists

Somewhere to watch the ETF component stocks for price changes, market caps and relative strength from 52 week highs and lows.
Beware multiple currencies and different exchange trading times (scroll right to see these).
A few odd results come out of google-finance, missing symbols where I have looked up Yahoo data or symbols without the usual exchange suffix.
Always double check the data !

See full lists below .....

Record Insider Buying in Juniors with Company Lists

Article - HERE

Company Lists - HERE - 

Brent Cook Q&A at Globe and Mail

Q&A from Brent Cook - HERE
My letter is about what I am doing w/ my money so it is therefore limited. I try to stick w/ the best--sometimes that works. But has been a rough year.
On Buying exploration and early developers now.
I would say yes, but very selectively. Know your company, its cash balance and plans... Better know what the company is looking at, what it could be worth and how much it would take to prove or disprove that thesis....................I suspect that when this market comes out of this the small profitable producers will do best. Exploration plays are tough to pick, at least ones that will work...

Likes B2 Gold and Fortuna. Lydian again. Likes team at North Country Gold but wary of Arctic location and capex. Wary of Lakeshore. Thinks Kirkland Lake will turnaround. Likes Midas & Belo Sun. Doesn't like Eco Oro.

Sunday, 28 April 2013

Rick Rule Interviews

Rule seems to have been more active than usual on the interview circuit.
Indicates Sprott have $400m ready to invest, though some may suspect they are facing problems with redemptions which as Rule himself indicates drives selling in the most liquid stocks. There was something of a hit piece on Sprott in the Globe & Mail recently, there must be plenty of disappointed investors.

Rule suggests, as usual, that stock selection is critical but there are stocks with high potential; there may be further capitulation and a drift down through the summer doldrums before a gradual turn up after the summer.
Interview at CEO.CA - HERE
Interview at Bull Market Thinking HERE

Saturday, 13 April 2013

Goldman and SocGen Bearish Gold Notes

Bearish notes from first SocGen and then Goldman this month are seen as some part of the plunge in gold on Friday.

Bill Cara has them posted in full
SocGen - HERE
Goldman - HERE

Some thoughts from Gene Arensberg - Are Goldman "initiating" a short position as this chart reaches the highest levels in years?




Friday, 5 April 2013

Troy Bid for Azimuth in Guyana

Australian companies (also listed on Toronto) Troy and Azimuth are looking to combine, using Troy's cash, cashflow from production, and recent mine building experience, to develop Azimuth's near surface relatively high grade (3g/T) deposit in Guyana.
Troy's stock has been weak, along with many other gold miners', recently with added concerns around operations in Argentina.
The deal would value Azimuth at $188m, a 60% premium similar to Troy's Market CAP.
Troy's stock traded at A$2.40-2.50 pre-announcement, down to A$1.90 today giving an MCap of A$173m

Article at Mineweb - HERE
Broker Note at Resources Roadhouse - HERE

Japan to double Monetary Base - $1.4 Trillion QE - Currency Crisis to Follow?

Retuters Report - HERE

Kyle Bass - Currency Crisis forecast - HERE
Reuters : The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economyin less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows..................more...................

QE will never be Reversed - Woodford

Report by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Daily Telegraph - HERE (well worth reading in full)

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.
"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".
He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.
"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.
Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

Monday, 1 April 2013

John Doody on Gold Stocks

Doody writes the Gold Stock Analyst. Discusses looking for miners HERE which;

  • Are proven producers or are very near commencing production (avoid unproven exploration plays)
  • Have big existing cash flows or are projected to grow their cash flows quickly in the next few years
  • Compare favorably to their peer group on the following ratios:
    • market cap/ounce in reserves
    • market cap/cash flow
    • net margin
  • Do not dilute their share base (this has been a huge problem in past years)
  • Report an "all-in cash-cost" in their accounting. $900 or less is desired.

Saturday, 30 March 2013

OT- Lyrics - Radiohead - Joy Division - Morrissey

For when you can't get a song out of your head, don't catch all the lyrics, or consider.
>>> Song Meanings HERE

Meanwhile Radiohead covering Joy Division. And Morrissey - Everyday is Like Sunday



Sunday, 24 March 2013

US Dollar Topping or Ready to Break Decade Long Downtrend?

Two views of the US Dollar considering a resumption of the downtrend in place since 2001, or a break to the upside.
If the dollar lifts will Gold lift with it or revert to the inverse?

Considering a US Dollar Top - HERE
Or a rise of The Dollar AND Gold - HERE

Friday, 22 March 2013

Eric Coffin - Resource Sector Paradigm Shift

Eric Coffin of Hard Rock Advisory on the state of the miners. HERE . Discusses the renewed focus on smaller higher margin deposits.

Another article HERE at Bloomberg suggesting break up of the large miners to release value, "shrink to grow" allowing smaller groups to replace reserves, show growth, provide cleaner geographical and management focus with less mines.

Perhaps the contrarian view is that there is value in large advanced resources which could advance with a new move in the gold price ahead of cost inflation. The majors, under pressure from shareholders due to recent failures, are afraid of big projects and there will be less demand and pressure on industry wide mine design, build and operating service costs leaving the field open for smaller companies and private capital.

As an example, consider Newmont's sale of the large Hope Bay project (acquired from Miramar in 2007 for $1.5bn for 10.7m oz resource) to privately held TMAC Resources. Directors at TMAC previously cashed out of FNX mining and are involved with Torex Gold, one of the strongest juniors. The Hope Bay project has sunk development costs which saw Newmont take a $1.6bn writedown when they put it on care and maintenance in 2012. One key risk appears to be in reaching agreements with First Nations. (and HERE) Some steps in developing these relationships with "KIA" look to be underway. TMAC may consider the project in a different way, concentrating on vein mining. Perhaps Hope Bay will also serve as a test case for First Nations to reach agreements knowing that miners will walk away from projects, especially in remote regions like Nunavut, north of the Arctic Circle.



Friday, 15 March 2013

Geologists At the Bar - PDAC

Good interview at PDAC with Ron Stewart - ex Dundee,  Doug Kirwin, Brent Cook, Simon Ridgway - Goldgroup, Gram Brown - Anglo American
HERE

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

GDXJ Breaking Downtrend?

Stewart Thompson's weekly review shows this chart
HERE 

Some Miners Looking to Buy

Some successful miners are looking to Buy distressed assets

Archipelago - HERE

Mick Davies Looking to set up Xstrata 2.0 to buy distressed assets? - HERE

Teck Looking to Build Up gold Business - Involved with 100 Junior Companies - HERE

Hudbay Look to buy with Majors on the Sidelines - HERE