Tuesday, 20 January 2015

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Goldcorp to acquire Probe Mines

Goldcorp announced the acquisition of Probe Mines in Ontario for $440m-$526m, a near 50% premium.
The straws have been in the wind since Jamie Sokalsky ex Barrick chief joined the company and the junior consolidated key land packages to control the district target and the key high grade targets. John Kaiser has been early in highlighting the high grade discovery in what was seen as a low grade play - his last note gives a detailed view of the project. Scotia's downgrade of the stock caused a scare last year but does not look to have put off Goldcorp. Probe made their first run during the Noront led Ring of fire Chromite discoveries and this will be spun off to a new company with cash.
The stock is the rare 100-bagger from the 2008 crash lows with a technical team changing project focus to Borden gold and then identifying a high grade core to a large low grade deposit.
In December 2014 David Palmer of Probe won PDAC's Bill Dennis Award for the Borden project
"This prestigious award is shared by every member of the Probe team," said David Palmer, President and CEO of Probe Mines. "From our technical team that has continued to advance and improve this deposit in the four years since its discovery, to the prospectors who brought us the property, Mike Tremblay and Jack Robert; Brian Atkinson, former OGS Regional Resident Geologist (Timmins); our Board of Directors; management and support teams; consultants and the First Nations and Chapleau communities - none of this would have been possible without them. On behalf of the entire Probe team, I would like to thank the PDAC for this incredible honour. As discoveries become scarcer, Borden exemplifies the importance of grass roots exploration and the potential that still exists within Canada to find high-quality and relevant deposits."


Junior Gold Mining M&A - Couer buy Wharf Mine from Goldcorp

Late reporting this one from 12th Jan
Couer moved to increase exposure to Gold from Silver announcing the acquisition of the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota from Goldcorp for $105m .
This follows on from their $146m acquisition of Paramount Gold & Silver in Mexico
The strategy of increasing exposure to gold by acquisition from a major follows Silver Standard's acquistion of the Marigold mine in Nevada from Barrick/Goldcorp. Of course Fresnillo has long been both silver and gold producer but recently increased the gold mix with acquisitions from Newmont, and Hecla purchased Aurizon Gold.

Monday, 19 January 2015

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2015

Cambridge House show in Vancouver began Jan 18th and continues Jan 19th.
Programme   Putting up Interviews

Company Lists - quite a few look dead, you'd think they would have a tidy up.
Some just need IR to get their stock tickers to work on yahoo and googlefinance.

Stock Price trackers below .......

Friday, 16 January 2015

Lithium Cost Curves

From Bacanora presentation -
Low oil prices will presumably dent the enthusiasm for electric cars for some time?

Kimble - Mining Stocks Bounce

Kimble

Swiss Bank Decision Pops Gold


General view that this anticipates Euro QE at which point the pressure to track the Euro would be too great.
Harris' conjecture I find especially interesting
QE program, then, was no surprise. IN MY MIND SOMETHING ELSE IS IN THE AIR. Here’s my conjecture: At the coming ECB meeting, Mario Draghi announces the specifics of a large QE program and his resignation as he returns to Italy to serve as the Italian president. In his place, ECB Executive Board Member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is named ECB president. The Germans gain control of the ECB, which is a victory for Chancellor Merkel and calms the anti-ECB forces building in Germany. The QEprogram is put in place under German vigilance, which gives it great international credibility.
The French will be unhappy but the Dutch, French and Italians have served as ECB president so why not a German, especially as it will be German money providing the ECB‘s capital backstop. The EUROrallies as the steadfastness of Weidmann is appreciated  and the Swiss will be able to sell their massive European sovereign bond portfolio to a willing ECB buyer for very nice rates and eventually ease the burden of owning far too many euros. The SNB would cut their enormous losses and be able to calm the anger of its Swiss citizens.THIS IS ONLY CONJECTURE BUT THAT IS WHAT PULLING THE PEG AND GOING TO 1% NEGATIVE RATES WAS TWO MONTHS AGO. Volatility anyone!?!?

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

John Doody - Interview

John Doody's Gold Stock Analyst is a premium priced letter often promoted by Stansberry and Agora.
Here is Bonner's long interview with Doody discussing selection and portfolio management criteria, including discussion of the contribution of rebalancing to performance in this volatile sector (389% over 13 years).
(Note- Mike Swanson has also recently come to focus on rebalancing Here and particularly Here)
The free samples and public monthly front pages show the stock universe analysed by Doody.


Brent Cook Interview

Interview at The Gold Report - covering a lot of the same ground as recent broadcasts, discussion of additional companies - Lakeshore, Premier, Kaminak, Reservoir, Pilot Gold
And more on peak gold mining lagging peak discovery


Eric Coffin Interview

Interview with Jay Taylor
Goldquest, Silvercrest, Columbus Gold, Precipitate Gold. Thoughts on Oil prices.

Sunday, 4 January 2015

Red Flags Mining Investors Should Heed - Graham Clow - Roscoe Postle Associates

A Northern Miner Article from Nov-14 has much to keep in mind. Based on "Potential Mining Pitfalls" Presentations to the Mineral Resource Analyst Group - MRAG
Part 1     Part 2
“There are a lot of capable people doing very good work,” he said. “And experience shows that in periods when markets are quieter, such as now, project results improve.” 
An RPA review of failed or troubled projects since 1985 identified 75 projects that failed to meet expectations, and of them: ........

John Kaiser - Canadian Juniors - Past & Future

As usual plenty of reading and charts from John Kaiser reviewing the history and potential futures for junior exploration - (Dating from AME-BC presentation Dec-14)

Cutting G&A - Ten things Miners can do to survive the Downturn

Mining Markets article from Nov-14

Saturday, 3 January 2015

Rick Rule Interview - Cut G&A Fat so there are Fewer More Solvent Players

Another interview with Tekoa Da Silva with Transcript

So a focus by the investor on the upside and the downside is what will allow the industry to thrive. As an example, in the TSXV, there are probably 400 or 500 surplus companies in Canada. As my friend Otto Rock says, please don’t feed the animals. Don’t give these guys any more money. Make them go to company heaven. Thank and excuse.
Think about it—500 companies at maybe $700,000 a year in general and administrative expenses including listing fees and auditing fees. That’s an enormous amount of money and every dime of it’s wasted. We need to cut this out of the industry so that there are fewer, better, more solvent players.

Tuesday, 30 December 2014

Consolidated Gold Fund & ETF Holdings

Consolidated precious metal fund and ETF holdings (top 25 holdings).
Reviewing
  • Total Market Cap of holdings - Total holdings approx $15bn
  • Maximum % weighting in portfolios
  • Greatest % increase / decrease in holdings. (= fund size + weighting)
The data should update - though google-sheets seem temperamental.
Also company names need cleaning so there are some duplicates
- see tables below - 184 companies across 24 Funds & ETFs

Sunday, 28 December 2014

Mining & Exploration Company Valuation

Various older dated papers & articles ... links below

Gold Mining Stock Bear Market Comparisons

Update from Jordan Roy-Byrne comparing Barron's Gold Mining Index Bear Markets. Only the 1996 bear was longer in duration. The 1996 timing analogue might point to a bounce but that came after a base not the recent plunge we have seen.


Friday, 26 December 2014

Gold, Silver and Mining Stock Picks for 2015

Following on from 2014 Picks   and  2013 Picks

Published stock picks for 2015 - Harder to find mining rec's this year. I shall update with more identified
  • Raymond James - Denison Mines, Lundin Mining, Detour Gold
  • Morgan Stanley International Mining Tips - New Boliden, Alrosa, Fresnillo, RioTinto, BHP Billiton, Nori'lskiy
  • Zack's via Barchart - Allied Nevada, Banro
  • The Australian - Tim Blue - (&write ups) -  Berkeley Resources ( Uranium), Paringa Resources (Coal), Gold Road, Independence Group, Doray Minerals, Rox Resources, Crusader Rescurces, Duketon Mining, Western Areas, Cassini Resources, Sirius Resources, BHP
  • Hard Asset Investments - (plus part 2 top 5) on Seeking Alpha - True Gold Mining, Alacer, B2 Gold, Klondex, Dynacor Gold, Callinan Royalties, Iamgold, Sandstorm, Rubicon, Richmont  Silvers - Fortuna Silver, Silver Wheaton, Avino Silver, Silvercrest, First Majestic, 
  • Nick Hodge - Outsider Club - Fission Uranium
  • Outsider Club - Part 1 - Bear Creek, Atac, Pilot Gold, Columbus Gold - Part 2  Lydian, B2 Gold, Elorado, Agnico Eagle
  • Radomski - Top5 short / long term
  • Ledbed - Wildcat Silver, Calibre, Pershing Gold
Stock Picking Contests

Value Investing Links

Value Walk's "Timeless Reading" long list of reading
The Gold Miners' question is timing to find value - by value money managers - or value traps

London Mines & Money Presentations

Various Presentations -  HERE Including
Evy Hambro (Blakrock) and Mark Bristow  of Randgold (embedded below)

Wednesday, 24 December 2014

Friday, 12 December 2014

Brent Cook - is 2015 the Year Miners Get out of the Rough?




Notes below:

Scotiabank Mining Conference 2014 - Webcasts

Scotiabank's mining conference was held on 2/3rd December.
Various discussions of gold price direction Mineweb ( what's in store for gold webcast below)
Webcasts Here - (change index numbers)

Resource Stocks Magazine - including Top 100 Aussie Miners

Various Issues

Notes from London Mines & Money Conference

At CEOca
The mood was much more upbeat than I expected. However, the prevailing sentiment in the conference was that there’s more pain to come.  The good news is that the cream should start to rise to the top allowing for the best management teams to get funded.

Copper Surplus or Deficit

Glencore depend on copper for almost 40% of earnings.
Ivan Glasenberg has been extremely critical of miners raising production levels - although bidding for Rio.
Here Glencore challenge coper supply growth assumptions.

Wednesday, 10 December 2014

Peter Brandt - Six Chart Reasons Silver has probably bottomed - Technical Target $26

Peter Brandt discusses

Imagine, good miners operating with silver heading to $26 and hope for more instead of $15 expecting less. With energy costs heading to half 2011 levels, local currencies and labour costs 20% down. Capital costs in a market where most metals and energy markets are giving consultants cause to worry about their next paycheck. And everyone has their stink bids in for tax loss selling.

Larger Players account for 40% of Exploration Expenditure - SNL

Report from SNL
The top three explorers in 2014 include one copper producer (Antofagasta), a diversified major (Vale), and a major precious
metal producer (Fresnillo)
IKN's take on the positive implications for selected juniors
Long story short what I'm pointing to is nothing more nor less than the revaluation of mineral assets. Now we're at near-zero, up has more chances than down, right? Well, I don't know if I'm right, but a big fat clue would be if some major or even Tier 2 goldie started running with that plan (AEM, perhaps?). If so, it'd be the time to position again into what you believed to be great rocks at low prices before the real money gets there. 

Mining M&A to Double as Market Elements Align - Grant Thornton

Summary       Full PDF
Gathering Momentum, the new report, attributes the resurgence of M&A to the confluence of four main factors, identified through feedback from over 250 senior mining executives globally. The first is that with one-in-ten junior miners likely to enter administration and a quarter of major mining companies anticipating challenges with financial covenants, the market can expect significant quantities of distressed assets and low valuations. There is also a ripe environment for matchmaking, with a third of executives at mining companies stating that they are likely to make an acquisition (35% junior and 32% major) and approximately the same amount showing an appetite for selling - believing that their company will either be sold or undergo a partial sale (36% junior and 27% major/other). Furthermore, lower commodity prices are identified by the report as a driver for M&A; pushing companies to band together to generate scale and lower productions costs in order to remain competitive.