Wednesday, 23 April 2014

Gold Mining M&A - Barrick / Newmont / Goldcorp / Goldman

Are the Gold Miners "Cheap Enough"?
  • Recent reports of a potential tie up between Barrick and Newmont
  • Franco Nevada billionaire co-founder Seymour Sculich taking a 11m share 1% position in Barrick.
    • “I think over the next 12-18 months, gold will go a lot higher."
    • One other reason behind Schulich’s enthusiasm for gold and Barrick is the involvement of his long time colleague Ned Goodman as a new director at Barrick. “I don’t think that Ned is doing this for his health. At some point, my theory, is that he will show up as a major player. Otherwise it doesn’t make a lot of sense to put a lot of time and effort into something in which you have no economic interest,” 
    • As Peter Munk Retires. Dundee financier and mining man Ned Goodman joins the Barrick board.
  • Goldman warming to the miners "Less likely to torch your money"at Barrons
    • M&A for cost savings not growth, profit and FCF focus.
    • But note "we examine the weighted average grade milled across our coverage and observe an inflection point over the past six months. We can attribute a majority of this increase to companies’ highgrading their mines, which inherently results in shorter mine lives, but more importantly should translate to enhanced near-term free cash flow generation." 
    • JGM - Longer term plans will need new mines, learning the lessons of recent years, good mines profitable at low prices and extremely profitable at higher prices. Which Junior explorers and developers have the goods? New discoveries are needed?
    • Header of note at IKN Goldman report
  • Goldcorp walked away from Osisko after Yamana-Agnico bid and Osisko spin out - likely further targets?

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