I remain bullish long-term BECAUSE there is no such suppression. If there was, it cannot be a free market so write it off. (JGMS - Armstrong has been bearish on gold - until time/price ?anyone?)Discussing potential for very high US Stocks in a private wave moving away from Bonds
This is a question of TIME more so than price. Keep in mind that the amount of capital contained in the bond markets is at least 3 times that in equities. If we see the Bond Bubble in 2015.75, then the capital pouring out of bonds will be like the 1929 Stock Market Crash. That money will then flow outward. This is when we will see the greatest potential for a rise in equity and YES we should see the turn in all tangibles including gold..............The worst for the Sovereign Debt Crisis seems to be first shaping up in Europe. Here we have new highs but with declining energy. The divergence warns that we are in a MAJOR topping pattern.......Everything is correlating so far on time. We have the metals crashing shaking the tree to get rid of all the perpetual bulls. They just have to be devastated before you can move in the opposite direction. This is just how markets move. The stock market advance has been with historic lows in retail participation. This sets the stage for the skeptics to rush back and buy the highs. The average personOn the Bond Bubble as the driver of US Stock Market - HERE
buys or sells based only when they see confirmation. This is what leads to buying highs and selling lows. The rally will come when the fresh crowd all start to buy once again. That becomes the question as to how high is high. It is starting look like the 43000 number more so than just the 26000 level. We need more price action to confirm that outcome.
The stats show that the total size of the world stock market capitalizations closed 2013 at $54.6 trillion which was only 25% of the total world market capitalization – the rest being bonds.The bond market is larger than the stock market for various reasons. Whereas only corporations issue stocks, governments and corporations both issue fixed income securities. The U.S. Treasury is the largest issuer of bonds worldwide. Because U.S, Treasury bonds provide the bulk of reserves which are just over $30 trillion......This is the real bond bubble. Capital is so accustomed to just hiding in bonds, it knows no other alternative. We can see that debt increased sharply in 1928. However, the collapse with the Sovereign Debt Crisis is what really made the Depression so Great. You can drop the stock market by 50% and you will not create a prolonged depression. Reduce the bond market by 33% and you get a depression......This is why Andrew Mellon first boasted during the 1929 that conservatives were not hurt - “Gentlemen buy bonds.” However, soon the Crash of 1929 turned into a serious Depression and that comes NOT by taking stocks down, but by wiping out the bond market......The central banks trying to stimulate the economy with lower interest rates have set the stage for the greatest crash of all time. You cannot imagine the bloodbath if interest rates go back to just 8% where they began this Phase Transition in bonds. We will see the worse economic bubble burst all over the street and this will be the real “GREAT” event of all time.More on Gold - HERE
On Global Debt $158 Trn vs US Debt
On the Gold Bounce - 15th Nov 2014
Interview with Michael Campbell - 20th September markets overview
No comments:
Post a Comment