Peter Brandt - Gold Blow off Bottom ?

Brandt suggesting possible end to the 3 year bear market in precious metals with a blow off bottom...........more

Gold Stock Rankings

Early September saw the Denver Gold Show and Precious Metals Summit, and the beginning of a sustained period of weakness in the mining stocks.
At the time I published a watchlist of all the stocks presenting  (this and a number of other watchlists and stocklists are under the "companies" heading on the left sidebar of  the blog)
There were just over 200 companies making it to one or both shows.
The far right of the listing tracked long term performance against a 10th September base date.
Here is a ranking of performances since then also showing daily performance last Friday 7th November on the day the GDX reported the highest ever volume.
Also showing relative positioning to 52 week highs and lows.
Click the arrow to expand or right click to open a new tab and zoom in.
Please note that Market Caps are in quote currencies, so it is not quite right to add up as I have done and as ever always double check the data as sometimes google finance returns some odd data.

Junior Gold M&A : Central Rand Gold $150m offer from Hiria Group / Marsa

Central Rand shares soared over 400% as a bid came from an unlikely buyer, financial leasing and iron/nickel mining group Marsa.
Central Rand moved back into production, and continued losses in 2013 (FT)
The company would claim over 36 million oz of JORC inferred / indicated gold in old South African mining leases.
I can only imagine that this is not expected to be economic near term, but perhaps a bet on optionality over long term gold prices and mining technology / robotics moving deeper underground?

In Remembrance

Martin Armstrong on Gold Suppression - Bond Bear Market - Stock Bull

Discussion of Metal price suppression -

I remain bullish long-term BECAUSE there is no such suppression. If there was, it cannot be a free market so write it off. (JGMS - Armstrong has been bearish on gold - until time/price ?anyone?)

Discussing potential for very high US Stocks in a private wave moving away from Bonds

This is a question of TIME more so than price. Keep in mind that the amount of capital contained in the bond markets is at least 3 times that in equities. If we see the Bond Bubble in 2015.75, then the capital pouring out of bonds will be like the 1929 Stock Market Crash. That money will then flow outward. This is when we will see the greatest potential for a rise in equity and YES we should see the turn in all tangibles including gold..............The worst for the Sovereign Debt Crisis seems to be first shaping up in Europe. Here we have new highs but with declining energy. The divergence warns that we are in a MAJOR topping pattern.......Everything is correlating so far on time. We have the metals crashing shaking the tree to get rid of all the perpetual bulls. They just have to be devastated before you can move in the opposite direction. This is just how markets move. The stock market advance has been with historic lows in retail participation. This sets the stage for the skeptics to rush back and buy the highs. The average person

Peter Brandt on Gold - Dollar - Copper and Silver

Brandt Updates his masterly overview of gold from the 1970's to present - HERE

And discusses gold breaking down - HERE   (JGMS-Miners 'should' be ahead of the metal ?)

This pattern has a target near $970. I believe that the last of the Gold-bugs will finally throw in the towel if the market has a wash out of $1,000. While as a trader I am interested in the short side of Gold futures, as an investor I want to accumulate physical Gold on this final leg of the bear trend that started at the September 2011 high. A decisive close above 1210 on the daily chart would place the descending triangle interpretation into doubt. A decisive close above 1260 would indicate that Gold has bottomed.

Also discussing potentially extremely bearish patterns for the Euro, and hence extremely bullish US Dollar - HERE 

Yet, history tells a far different story than a range-bound Euro. The chart below shows the Euro dating back to the early 1970s (note – the chart is adjusted to use the D-Mark as a proxy for the Euro prior to 1999.) As this chart shows, the Euro is far from oversold. The decline from 1.4000 since May is not particularly spectacular from historic measures. However, a decline to 90 cents would be something special........ Remember, charts represent possibilities, not probabilities and definitely not predictions

Patterns indicating Copper collapse to $2.22 - HERE

Support has been uncovered at and just below the $3.00 level repeatedly since 2011. However, each successive price recovery has been weaker and weaker. A decisive close below 2.92 and then 2.87 would complete this chart pattern and establish a price target of 2.22. Only well funded traders should engage this market. The Copper market is known for high volatility.

Greenspan Opines on Gold - Council on Foreign Relations with FT's Gillian Tett

As central banks look to up the battle against deflation will gold be used to signal inflation?

Greenspan: Is gold currently a good investment - yes, in this case I didn't equivocate........"Gold is a Currency" it is still the premier currency, no currency including the dollar can match it.......it is half commodity, when an economy is weakening it goes down like copper, gold is an intrinsic currency.......Why do central banks put reserves into an asset with no rate of return and a cost of storage?

Comparing Gold & Silver Bear Markets

Jordan Roy Byrne continues to track comparable bears as a function of time and price.

Silver’s bear began five months before Gold’s and the bear analog below makes a strong case that the current bear will end very soon. Other than the epic collapse from 1980-1982, the current bear is the worst ever for Silver in terms of price and is the third worst in terms of time.

Rick Rule Interview at Mineweb

With Kip Keen at Mineweb        Part 1       Part 2

PWC - Junior Mine 2014

Junior Mining Report 2014 from PWC        In Full

Analysis of the top 100 venture miners as of 30th June - Capitalisations have changed some since! Moreover the overall venture has collapsed with Oil and energy companies which had become a large part of the venture index.
Summary balance sheets and P&L for the Top 100 Companies.

Gold M&A - Lundin Gold - Fortress to acquire Fruta Del Norte Gold project from Kinross

The Lundin family are buying .
Having paid $1.8bn to take control of the Candelaria Copper mining complex in Chile from Freeport McMoran, subsequently streaming the precious metals for financing, the Lundins are now buying what some consider the best Gold discovery of the last decade from Kinross (who bought out the Fruta Del Norte project from Aurelian) for only $240m.
(Longer release)
The mark down from Kinross' price of $1.2bn reflects the inability to agree a commercial mining regime with Ecuador, in particular a 70% windfall tax.
Ross Beaty also recently invested in Ecuador, in Odin mining.
Can Ecuador work with the new miners?
As pointed out by IKN why explore and develop when productive and advanced assets are for sale.

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Semafo Propose Acquisition of Orbis Gold

Semafo are bidding around AU$150m for Aussie Listed Orbis and their Natougou high grade gold project in Burkina Faso.
Orbis had recently seen a $20m partnership proposal with Greenstone Resources LP Private Equity run by Michael Haworth ex JP Morgan and Mark Sawyer ex Xstrata and Rio Tinto.

Brent Cook - Insight on Junior Gold Market

Podcast at The Northern Miner - (free month subscriptions at Northern Miner)

US Dollar - Exhorbitant Burden? Michael Pettis

Pettis continues the reserve currency discussion

Golden Rule - Alan Greenspan on Chinese Gold Buying - Foreign Affairs

Not the usual goldbug crowd, but former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan writing in the influential Foreign Affairs. 
Whilst the gold price is currently weak, the facts of continued central bank ownership of gold and recent accumulation, in particular by China, continue to intrigue  

If China were to convert a relatively modest part of its $4 trillion foreign exchange reserves into gold, the country’s currency could take on unexpected strength in today’s international financial system.

If the dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times, central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute.  

What is not really discussed is why China would seek a stronger currency at a time we are seeing competitive global currency devaluations, with Japan and the Eurozone following the US to QE and

Carl Swenlin - Watch Gold

Decision Point founder and technical analyst Carl Swenlin notes key weekly chart for Gold.

Commodity Bust in Slow Motion - (Including Copper and Iron Cost Curves 2013-2018) - Handelsbanken

Handelsbanken Report - Dating from May 2014.
They appear to have been spot on regarding Iron Ore so far to $80/T.
Project copper to $5500/T or $2.50/lb......much more.....

Silver Industry Costs - BMO

A report dating from June 2013 from BMO (and data back to 2012)  - More .......

All In Sustaining Costs AISC - Discussions at Globe & Mail

Article HERE   - highlights below

Retreating Discovery Rates and Exploration Expenditures - David Cox - SNL - At Denver Gold Show

Presentation at Denver gold Forum (select Tuesday)   PDF Document ..... more notes below

Richard Schodde - Minex Consulting - Junior Exploration Reports

New presentations from Richard Schodde at Minex Consulting reviewing junior discovery performances. Well worth a full read, a few highlights below.

Optimisation of Mining NPV - Whittle Consulting at Denver Gold Show

The gold mining industry has come through a period of rising prices, until 2011, where the focus has been to identify the greatest ounces in the ground resources and see leverage to the gold price by developing marginal projects. Production ounces, resource ounces and growth prospects were highly valued by the market. Much work has gone into taking old uneconomic deposits and redeveloping them as they appear to work at higher prices.
As Rick Rule recently discussed this has left a marginal industry.......more ......

Frank Giustra Liking Development stage Miners

Interview at CEO

Scotland's Referendum Results

Results by region and wealth indicators ( below - click to enlarge)

Martin Armstrong Interview

Armstrong blogs prolifically offering cycles and inter-market perspectives.
Long Interview and discussion of markets including the US Dollar and Gold

Armstrong has targets below $1000 for gold as capital flows continue to US$ assets.
New precious metals report is due to identify timing and more.
The miners and the juniors often move ahead of the metal, but gold below $1000 would likely kill much of the sector.

Junior Gold M&A - Mariana Resources bid for Aegean Metals

Very junior bid from S.American explorer Mariana for Aegean focussed on the Tethyan belt in Turkey near Alamos and Pilot Gold.
Smallcap £11m London Aim listed Mariana was recently able to raise up to $6m from New York based Bergen Global Opportunity fund.
Anglogold have an 11% holding in Mariana while Teck are backing into 51% of Aegean's Ergama project in Turkey and a Turkish producer Lidya Mining (Alacer partner in Turkey) earning into a second project Hot Maden.    (Lidya Mining)

Brent Cook & Rick Rule Keynote at Precious Metals Summit

Webcast  1 Hour    ....... notes below .......

Rick Rule Interview

Interview on Palisade Radio    ....notes below ....

Gold M&A - Fresnillo Buyout Newmont's Penmont Stake in Mexico

Fresnillo will move closer towards being a balanced Silver and Gold producer with their $450m buyout of Newmont from their Penmont business in Mexico.

Once its gets full control of the joint venture Fresnillo will have an annualised production capacity of around 600,000-620,000 ounces of gold before ramping up to 750,000 ounces by 2018. The latter target could be raised further once the board approves development of the Mega Centauro and Centauro Deep projects, a spokesman said. Fresnillo operates three other mines in Mexico and expects to produce 43 million ounces of silver this year. Fresnillo is considering hedging part of the extra gold production it will get through the acquisition.

The End of the Iron Age - Goldman Sachs

Goldman has a well reported note out on Iron ore where prices have been tumbling.
Rio Tinto and BHP are aggressively expanding capacity while demand has cooled. The steep cost

OT - Ramsbottom Bury Black Pudding Throwing World Championships

The second Sunday in September, of course, sees Ramsbottom, Lancashire, (currently still part of the United Kingdom) host the Black Pudding Throwing World Championships.

Denver Gold and Precious Metal Summit Companies Watchlist 2014

Stock watchlists for all the exhibitors at the Denver Gold Show and Precious Metals Summit are below the break.
Flagged D / P / D+P for shows attended.
Scrolling to the right should show performance fixed against base 10th September 2014

Global Gold Development Projects - IRR vs Cash Costs

Comparison of non-fully financed gold projects owned by non-cash flowing companies, from Red Eagle presentation basis National Bank Financial.
IRRs are recalculated to a common $1300 gold price. Clearly cash cost estimates will be dependent on levels of accuracy / conservatism in economic studies with differing levels of confidence through scoping to feasibility.
List of projects and study levels, including most of those below and others, HERE on the blog

Denver Gold Show & Precious Metals Summit

Two of the biggest precious metals conferences are in Colarado, over the next two weeks, this week at the Precious Metal Summit and next week at the more institutional Denver Gold Show.
Company attendances look high - see companies links below.
Webcasts will be available following the conferences. many companies have their presentations up on websites before the conferences.

Denver Gold Companies
Webcasts

Precious Metals Summit Companies
Webcasts

Junior Gold M&A - Agnico Eagle bid for Cayden Resources

Having recently teamed up with Yamana to buy out producer Osisko, Agnico are bidding for relatively early stage explorer Cayden Resources for $205m (approx $3.79/share - not on chart below).
Cayden's stock has been well supported for some time following high grade, near surface, discoveries at El Barqueno in Jaliso, Mexico, but the buyout is well ahead of defined mineral reserves and economic studies.
Management are large holders and support the bid so presumably have taken a view that this is not the environment to seek to add further value above $200m through continued financing for exploration success.
Morelos Sur in Guerrero is proximate to an increasingly active area with Goldcorp's Los Filos mine and developments, Torex's large advanced projects and Osisko Royalties large exploration package.

Peter Brandt - Factor Update 7th Sept 14

Full Trading Report - noting Gold and Silver risks and many other markets.

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch - 20th Annual Canada Mining Conference 2014 - & Gold Cost Curves / Breakdowns

Major mining conference in Toronto last week.

Register once to watch - not found a list of all presenters ?
- no doubt many more companies linking presentations and webcasts from their websites.

• Goldcorp - showing the strong growth profile and cost control that has supported their stock - also note nil capex after this year, although have Camino PFS due, and low debt. Having missed out on Osisko surely in the market for some big M&A. Torex proximate to Los Filos and Rubicon in Red Lake? 
• Barrick
• Royal Gold / Silver Wheaton / Franco Nevada
• Agnico Eagle
• McEwen

Gold Industry AISC - All in Sustaining Cost Curves - From Goldcorp's presentation...

Goldcorp's Cost breakdowns by region

Presumably the big differences in labour, fuel and power costs relate to open pit and underground operations aswell as pay rates in Canada vs Mexico

International Copper Study Group - World Copper Factbook 2013

World Copper Factbook 2013

Home & Monthly Updates
(Sell forecast mines and supply capacity data)

Many "large low grade" gold deposits come with considerable copper. Seabridge's KSM deposit for example has seen recent exploration highlighting more copper than gold. Potentially major base metals miners and PM streamers become involved in these projects as for example Thompson Creek and Royal Gold at Mt Milligan.

John Kaiser reviews various issues including Copper project pipeline and cost curve

Africa Down Under Conference - Sept 2014

The African continent is endowed with enormous mineral wealth but many countries continue to be seen as high risk regimes. During the last run for gold mining stocks, into 2011, many Aussie companies targeted West Africa and have now collapsed from bubble valuations while quality deposits were discovered and developed.
B2 Gold has made 2 recent African acquisitions, Volta in Burkina Faso and Papillon in Mali.
Africa Down Under Conference
Recent discussion of African Mining and discovery potential with Sprott's Chief Geologist, Andy Jackson

Junior Gold M&A - Atlantic Gold acquires Acadian from Liongold

Spur Ventures had a phosphate project in China and sat on cash and short term investments over $20m for the past 5 years as their project didn't progress.
Clearly cash is a rarity on junior balance sheets so Spur recently merged with Aussie listed Atlantic Gold who in turn have very slowly progressed a gold project in Nova Scotia. Today Atlantic announced a further acquisition of neighbouring properties, buying Acadian Mining from Singapore listed Liongold who in turn only purchased in October 2013 just after suffering a huge flash-crash in their stock from $1.56 to  20c, now trading at 6c.  Atlantic's presentation declares further acquisitive intent.