We have entered the most favourable era for gold prices in our lifetime

Don Coxe disagrees with those panicking out of their junior gold stock holdings.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tim-price-we-have-entered-most-favourable-era-gold-prices-our-lifetime%E2%80%9D

Sentiment in the Juniors

My Personal Market Narrative posted a great summary of the hatred of the juniors at this time.

The Canadian Venture has held its last low.

http://myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/dooooooooom.html

Dilution Risks in the Juniors

A good article from Haywood Securities, via Brent cook, via Tommy Humphries, via My Personal Market Narrative.

Discussing the risks to investors and the alignment of shareholder and management interests around share options.

http://tommyhumphreys.com/blog/the-real-cost-of-incentive-options

OT - London in the Spring

Leave the gold market to do what it does best on Friday.

A little escape to London

Sentiment Extremes in Gold

Two writers who see extreme bearishness in gold and take this as a very bullish sign; the crowd is rarely right.

David Nichols at Fractal Gold


Pater Tenenbarum again following on from his excellent longer review but now seeing Hulbert's newletter sentiment indicator turning "short", to the "Uber bearish" sentiment lows of October 2008 / March 2009. The break of "support" on the Hui at 480 is killing any recent goldbugs.

I sense some capitulation - "Rambus" who I previously linked with some very bullish articles posted this analysis calling for gold prices taking another leg down to $1300 by June.
It may happen, but do collapses begin from such sentiment extremes?

Some are still bullish for Gold and the Miners

The past week has been tough to be bullish on gold and the miners.

An article by Pater Tenenbarum covers the goldbugs' wall of worry here, in particular addressing the performance of the gold miners.

Some however see a simple and necessary consolidation in gold since September coiling to a point of breakout.

OT - North Yorkshire - Harrogate

A great part of the UK.

Translation essentials for some - Linked Here

FOMC & Gold March 2012

Gold reacted lower as no further QE was announced 13th March
Worse damage followed through the following day with some recovery on the 15th.

PDAC Roundup

Some info from PDAC was posted here

http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com/2012/03/pdac-post-at-cara-community.html

And here
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com/2012/03/more-pdac-interviews.html

The Metal Augmentor team have really impressed me with their detailed company reviews.
Their info is here, the day 3 & 4 report is new.
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-days-3-4.html#comments
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-day-2.html#comments
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-day-1.html#comments

Junior Mining - Merchant Bank "Funds"

For those considering investment in very small cap exploration and resources stocks one simple investment option might be to buy a merchant bank and investor in the sector, equally one may choose to take their investments as a degree of due diligence and take an interest in the stocks, be very wary of this given the merchant bank's business models and incentives.

Most ETFs and funds I am aware of focus on much larger companies and situations.

There are a number of merchant banks, only a few of which I understand are investable on the public markets. A review follows......

More PDAC Interviews

Cara Community Post on Brent Cook on BNN and others


Top picks Eurasian Minerals and Lydian.

Likes a lot of the "Prospect / Project Generators" I list here.
This business model can avoid perpetual dilution in  the exploration sector and leverage geological talent, which due to the lost generation in mining can be considered rare.

PDAC Post at Cara Community - Day 1 & 2

Cara Community including PDAC post

Rick Rule on Stockchase for the first time in a couple of years mentions a couple of

Prospect /Project Generator model companies - linked here the page reviewing more of these.

PDAC Company Q&A

A few people have kindly requested a list of things that I might find interesting at the PDAC, if I wasn't a little Englander! I would be extremely grateful to hear any of the great stories to come out of PDAC 2012.

One of the first things I put up on the blog was the PDAC Core shack page above, so I fully disclose I

OT - Radiohead

No Manchester connections...

House of Cards - the line Denial.....Denial ..... always comes to mind on a big gold down day

Gold Merger & Acquistions Updates

More Reports indicating major M&A activity to come in the Gold mining space.

I have previously suggested that there comes a point when clear earnings, dividends and value drive a re-rating of the seniors' and producers' stock prices at which point they use re-rated stock-paper to acquire their future mines and resources in the ground, at this point the industry drives significant re-rating of oz in the ground.

Linked Article - Resource Investing News

West African Exploration

I Link here as part of this blog's series on the Regional Exploration Page

The African goldfields see the ugly face of gold mining; artisanal pits, dangerous conditions and processes that kill.
I would only be happy investing in companies who aim to bring modern mining to these locations.

More Companies & Discussion below

Colombia Gold Exploration

A lazy post because here is someone doing Colombia far better than I can.
Even lazier it's as recommended by Otto at Inca Kola.

I Post here as part of this blog's series on the Regional Exploration Page

The monthly letters, linked below, appear to be freely available, I presume his business is therefore advertising, so as ever beware of writer biases but for me Otto's recommendation gives credibility.

The writer is Paul Harris, interviewed here at Gold Report

Gold Price Forecasts - Waves and Fractals

Three writers who consider fractal and wave views of markets suggest an aggressive gold price growth wave is upon us.

One of these sees the 29th Feb plunge as potentially especially positive, another as an expected pattern.

Crazy Gold Bug Fools?
Check back in a few months !

Alf Fields
David Nichols
Goldrunner

The Deadly Art of Market Manipulation

The Canadian Markets have supposedly become a little cleaner since 1996, but there will always be promotion and speculation, the early and the latecomers

I read this first at VancouverVenture blogspot - Some condensed Rules attached here

http://vancouverventure.blogspot.com/2010/09/12-essential-junior-investment-rules-to.html

The Deadly Art Of Market Manipulation

The Apr 21 1996, original can be found at

Companies With Mineable Ounces - Sinclair

Jim Sinclair continues with his theme that companies with mineable ounces will be the great investments to maintain leverage despite volatility in gold.

Here on mineable ounces

Here on volatility

OT - Smiths & New Order

Another Manchester music theme, older this time, and because cover bands Smyths and Re-Order play on Saturday - Got to be loud.

Good Jurisdiction - Fraser Institute 2011/12

The updated Fraser Institute Report assessing "good jurisdictions" for miners has been published

Link to Report here

Top Jurisdictions by number of respondents indicating favourable vs unfavourable;

Quebec
Chile
Nevada
Alberta
W.Australia
Saskatchewan
Yukon
Ontario
Mexico
Manitoba
South Australia
Alaska

Will probably prioritise the regional exploration write ups- Posted 2, Nevada and Yukon.

Yukon Gold Exploration

The risk of this page is it will quickly become out of date as this is an extremely active area.

Keep Up to Date  - News Feed at http://stocknetwork.com/yukon_mining (DEAD?)

Survivors? - Jan 2014 Yukon Pavillion at the Vancouver Resource Show

June 2012 Article Reviewing Yukon Explorers "Still in the Game" at the Northern Miner

June 2012 Article at Mineweb - Yukon Juniors with Cash

August 2012 Beacon Rock Research Yukon Report

Mining News North - Regular Updates

Mining News - Mining Explorers - 2012 Edition

On a risk/reward assessment the entire market cap for key explorers in Yukon is now below $1bn, whereas at peak Atac alone reached this valuation. 
Buying in the off-season before drilling might pay reward here. But in a bad market these are the riskiest plays. 
Please ensure your own full update and due diligence before acting on anything you read here.



Introduction
The discoveries made by Underworld Resources in 2009, (and since acquired by Kinross), have sparked an enormous surge of modern exploration, further discoveries and speculation in the Yukon, Canada, targeting the hard-rock sources of gold historically panned and placer mined in rivers and creeks across the region in the first Yukon Goldrush.
An excellent article overviewing "The Second Yukon Goldrush" 
at Resourceworld Magazine September 2011.

A Recent Mineweb review of "Yukon Companies with Cash to Burn" - May 2012 - Companies are all covered in some detail below.

These discoveries have not been made suddenly.

"Why Junior Mining Stocks Represent the Best Value in the Gold Mining Space"

- Brent Cook interviewed by Jim Puplava.

Economic Geologists

Some of the best writers I follow in the junior exploration sector are geologists and economic geologists.
The best companies must be led by or deeply involve people from this field as great discoveries become increasingly rare and hard won.

I am taking a greater interest in finding the best and their writings.

Speculating and Investing

A good Doctor made me think about Speculating and Investing.

"To The American Damphool Speculator, surnamed the American Sucker, otherwise described herein as The Thinker Who Thinks He Knows But Doesn't, greetings! This book is for you! Read as you run and may you run as you read!"

The introduction to My Adventures with Your Money, by George Graham Rice (1913) Timeless

OT - One Day Like This

Being from Manchester way  :   Elbow - One Day Like This

Nevada Gold Exploration

Seeking quality gold exploration companies in safe jurisdictions quickly leads to Nevada in the US.

Ever since the discoveries which put Barrick and Newmont at the top of the Gold mining league, exploration of these deposits has promised great rewards.
See Discovery of the Carlin Deposit
Older Nevada History - Here

In any coming gold junior bull market I can imagine this region drawing many US investors through familiarity and safety.
From a practical, miners' point of view Nevada has a great deal of good infrastructure from its mining heritage, indeed there are high value assets which will need replacement ore-feeds in the coming years. The value of juniors' discoveries in this region should be higher than in remote or high risk regions.

If the next rise in gold relates to a weakening US Dollar then US based production costs should further improve the prospects for US based producer.

Recent successes are Fronteer/Auex at Long Canyon who sold out to Newmont.
I think there are some expert explorers in this region.

In this post I outline a number of companies and then revisit for key people and projects.
At the bottom of the page are a series of price charts and a spreadsheet watchlist in the usual format to assess market cap and proximity to annual price highs or lows and below that maps of regional exploration programmes ............

All junior explorers are risky. The US Bulletin Board stocks (.OB) are generally considered even riskier, with multiple pump and dump schemes. Occasionally good companies can turn up there.

Risk vs Reward Players should be all over the gold stock case right now

One of the saner voices writing in the investment space is Gary Tanashian.

Yes he's into gold and the miners on a secular basis,  but he also recognises the power of the "continuum" of the long bond bull market.

Leverage Gold through Miners - Not Comex Gold Contracts - Jim Sinclair

Today I reference a clear series of posts by Jim Sinclair revisiting certain themes he has led me to recognise in the fundamentals of the gold bull market on the "Why Gold" page on this blog.

Jim Sinclair's recent restatements of his views on gold going forwards are
1) Here
2) Here
3) Especially Here regarding gold and the monetary system.

The key message for me is that Sinclair, "Mr Gold" of the 70's bull is not using Comex contracts for leverage this time but miners. I quote.

Gold and Silver Multi-Project Consolidators - Merger & Acquisition plus

A new page on the blog (linked) considers

Growth Companies and Leaders of Multi-Project Consolidation in the Gold and Silver Mining Industry.


These are potentially some of the strongest companies during a bull market, a bull within a bull.
If they can do it from a small, under the radar starting point the potential gains are even greater.

Comments and suggestions welcome in identifying the best of these.

Another page here will consider "Why Gold".
What are the key influences leading you to consider this area for investment?
How will you know a top is near?
What are the themes seeing investment from those who identified a nascent gold bull market in 2000?

Mining Mergers & Acquisitions continue in 2012 - Smartmoney anticipates

Two extremes of mining merger and acquisition activity hit the news last week.

1) Glencore - Xstrata Merger of Equals
The first, the widely reported merger of Glencore and Xstrata businesses looks increasingly likely. This would formalise Glencore's large investment stake in the Xstrata mining business and create an $80bn behemoth, fourth in global mining behind BHP, Vale and Rio.

As far as I can read it Glencore can be seen as the "Smartmoney" in commodities, the Goldman of commodity traders.

Junior Gold Miners' Large Low Grade Deposits - Leverage To $3,000 Gold Price?

We may be entering the aggressive "wave 3 of 3" in gold as indicated by Alf Field, targeting $4500, and Silver to >$150/oz. Alf Field's forecasting of the gold price is outstanding, however he did call the bottom early in 2008.

We may be entering a new 17 month Growth pattern as indicated by David Nichols, peaking in June 2013, although his current target is $3,000. Nichols has called March 2008 tops and October 2008 bottoms in the gold market. However he had believed we should see a large top in Jan 2011 and has been re-positioning since.

We await Jeff Kern's "Ski" analysis at 321 Gold of whether we have entered a "true bull market" for the miners.

If this is the case and $1,500 /oz and then $2,000/oz is to be seen as a solid base price the gold miners and especially junior gold and silver miners will undergo a dramatic re-rating and some degree of mania should enter the precious metals market as the virtuous cycle of mergers and acquisitions drives up valuations.

Gold Miners in a Safe Jurisdiction - Don Coxe Basic Points - Mainstream Investors Look to the Gold Miners

Reported by Mineweb :
Don Coxe, a widely followed and respected Canadian investment manager, in his Basic Points, urges investors to emphasize miners over bullion. The key quote,

"What was most hurting gold shares recently have been the high-profile price plunges for shares of some high-profile producers with reserves in the ground in politically risky regions," Coxe noted. "It is absurd that investors are selling shares of companies which have, as a matter of policy, avoided investing in those high-risk countries."
"These disappointments should lead to huge outperformance for the companies who have the least endogenous risk, and we believe that will happen this year," he predicted.
"Gold has in the past decade evolved from being a curiosity to a speculative investment to a sound investment," Coxe said. "It is now becoming a necessary investment, as central banks print money prodigiously-and promise to continue."
"Emphasize the miners at the expensive of the bullion ETFs," Coxe stressed.

Junior Gold Miners and Explorers with a Major Mining Partner

Great investments and speculations in the junior gold and silver exploration space require identification of the strongest companies with greatest potential.

We can improve the odds that the high risks offer high rewards.

These junior explorers must hold great projects managed by great people.
If we can identify these companies early, at low market capitalisation values, then we improve the odds of high returns upon discovery and through development.
Equally we may buy cheaply through market cycles lows like 2011 and through company development cycles when the excitement wanes.

A great article by Brent Cook on the difficulties faced by junior explorers in this endeavour, the lifecycle of junior explorers, reminders of why the majors are hungry for new resources from the junior exploration teams and how we need to judge price and value as investors to ensure we are not buying whilst the smart are selling.

We can find these high potential juniors by following great management teams, I shall continuously update and welcome comments and feedback on the "Good People in Good Projects" page.

We can also follow activities of the Major and Mid-Tier gold and silver producers who partner, joint venture, and take stakes in the junior companies, where they see exciting high potential projects.
 I shall continue to update and welcome feedback and your thoughts on companies referenced on the
  "Junior Gold with a Major Mining Shareholder" page.

Junior Gold Explorers - The Safest Ownership of Gold

Consider the write down of excess debt by devaluation of currencies, all currencies.
Devaluation against what if all currencies are to be devalued?
Against gold held by central banks and old money which needs to begin to move again.

Consider a point when the Gold price has advanced substantially in nominal terms.

Consider government actions to tax "windfall" profits on nominal gains made by the evil speculators and hoarders of the relic.
Tax the hoarders who took metal cheaply from the hands of the Cash for Gold party-goers and stuffers of broken gold into envelopes while gold prices bubbled.
Before they doubled.

Tax Owners of metals.

Tax producers of metal to maintain enough incentive for investment into production to earn at "utility" returns levels. (Jim Sinclair sees the gold stocks as the utilities of the future).
But tax the excess profits.
Pay off the deficit with the ill gotten gains of a lucky industry.

Then tax gold explorers?
Or promote exploration everywhere to encourage mine development and increase taxable production levels for governments.
To mine and print new money.
To tax ill gotten gains.
To recapitalise the banks with gold.

Explore, drill, discover your money supply.




In the meantime - bloody risky.

Please note - English irony; I think there's some truth in the above, but having endured 2011, junior gold miners felt anything but safe ....

Gold and Silver Merger and Acquisition Targets - Pan American Silver / Minefinders

The announcement today that Pan American Silver will acquire Minefinders reinforces the opinion that as the market leaves junior gold and silver miners undervalued the miners will take advantage of that value and use high cashflows to make acquisitions.

As Rick Rule has discussed (with the usual good advice to make volatility your friend) we are in a discovery cycle and the majors need to replace resources which are now relatively cheap against their growing cashflows and declining reserves..

The Page on this blog "Merger & Acquisition Targets" highlights a number of key companies likely to be involved going forwards.

PDAC 2012 Stock Price and Market Cap Spreadsheet

PDAC 2012 will be coming soon generating all sorts of excitement in the junior mining sector.

The new page on the blog -  PDAC 2012 - Core Shack -  lists all the current coreshack presenters and a spreadsheet shows market caps and price changes.

What will the top picks be?

If we are at the beginning of a new cycle in the gold price and miners move off their lows it is often the "new picks" which become stars rather than the big stories from the last cycle.

Which PDAC picks involve great people ?

Good People in Good Projects - Darin Wagner, Balmoral Resources and Abzu Gold

My best investments have come from finding relatively low market capitalisation companies associated with successful mining mangers, geologists and key investors.
Of course previous success offers no guarantees in exploration, and maybe they just got lucky the first time, but we might presume that the best projects attract the best people.
Reading around many of the links on this site you should find reference to many of these companies and individuals


DARIN WAGNER



Previous Success : 
Merged / Sold  West Timmins Mining (WTM) to Lakeshore gold (LSG.TO) for $424 (300?)m in August 2009 after great discovery. 83m @ 12.75g/T 

Gold and Silver Juniors Newsletter Picks

Having read several newsletter writers I wonder how many others here find their picks and advice difficult to trade?

Clearly the most popular newsletter writers find it difficult to recommend the microcap stocks which deliver the most stunning returns, as high volumes of purchasing can distort the stock price, and as that purchasing subsides the stock price can crash leaving very disappointed subscribers.

So the typical subscriber, unless a committed day-trader, is left

a) Chasing higher prices