Joyeux Noël

Carols From King's College - Cambridge - Radio 4

Gold & Mining Stock Picks for 2014

Less around this year ! I shall update more on this post as I find.

Sprott & Asian Private Equity Resource Investments $1.25bn

Sprott announced co-management of a $750m Korean resources fund on 20th Dec-13.

Junior Gold M&A - Asanko & PMI Gold - On Again? - West African Resources

Back in January we saw this announcement as Keegan and PMI Gold looked for a merger of equals in Ghana.

Can Tapering be Bullish for Gold?

Is this wishful thinking from Stewart Thomson? Or can a turn in monetary velocity, Japanese QE, Indian and Chinese reform drive inflation and a rush to gold in 2014?
HERE
Martin Armstrong foresaw the dashing of goldbug dreams but seems to be sensing some of the bearishness necessary for a turn. HERE

Junior Gold M&A - Primero Bid $220m for Brigus Gold

Joe Conway's Primero (P.TO)  have been one of the few precious metals miners to hold onto their market value in the last few years, holding good cash levels over $100m and generating strong cashflows from operations.

Franco Nevada Streams - Teranga Gold in Senegal and Klondex in Nevada

Continuing the African Gold theme, Teranga Gold (TGZ) in Sengal yesterday announced a significant $135m streaming deal with Franco Nevada, retiring debt, and buying out a partner.

Meanwhile back in the US  Klondex announced a $35m financing with Franco Nevada to progress their purchase of the Nevada Midas mill and mine from Newmont.

Junior Gold M&A - Centamin bid for Ampella follows B2 Gold's Offer for Volta in Burkina Faso - Mark O'Dea Discussion

West Africa is seeing significant M&A activity as the gold miners' shift focus to low capex, low cost projects which can make margins at lower gold prices due to higher grades or low cost heap leach projects.

Ernst & Young Mining Eye

Quarterly Report from Ernst & Young
Q3-13 

Rob McEwen Interview

Reported HERE

People are looking at cash flow and margins. The next run in this market is going to be gold moving higher, but it’s also going to be lifted by discoveries and in this type of market, people are saying, “Oh, I don’t want to look at exploration.” But I think right now that’s when you should be looking [at it] because there are going to be some good stories and that’s what has pulled companies out of the doldrums before and they will do it again.

Gold Fund Top Holdings

Some live links to Top Gold and Mining Mutual Fund Holdings - See Side Bar at Bottom Left of this blog for more links

Gold Miners with Cash and Other Fundamentals

Y-Charts have a nice screener which plots scattergraphs of Balancesheet, P&L and Cashflow fundamentals

New Exploration Techniques - Going Deeper Under Cover

My Own Market Narrative pointed out THIS ARTICLE
John Kaiser often discusses the enormous potential for discoveries deep under cover in Nevada, in the gravel filled valleys. Rick Rule has discussed the potential for discoveries under cover in Mexico. These newer techniques may be the spur to junior discovery of the next "Big Anomaly". Landholders in large districts with potential become more interesting. The best geological teams might explore, more economically, over larger areas, with less stock dilution using these techniques. Maybe this is how miners return to rich ore, maybe deeper high grade discoveries put at risk the low grade open pits. Maybe the old mining districts in good jurisdictions can be re-explored in preference to exploration in remote areas with no infrastructure or bad government.

Rick Rule - on Hubris & Bifurcation (plus Stock Picks)

An interview discussing his familiar themes HERE
Also a Transcript of another interview HERE
Plus a lengthy list of stocks discussed in August and older picks at Stockchase

Mines & Money London - Dec 2013

Investorhub     Exhibitors  -     Stocklist

Discussion - Day 1       Day 2

Gold Miner Cost Decreases to Come ?

The industry is under enough pressure on all fronts that the weakest companies could fail. All should aggressively reduce costs, the scramble for people and resources in a hot sector should be gone. With this in

Bob Moriarty 10 Mining Picks

Bob Moriarty has a long record in the gold and mining sector, he takes sponsorship and holds stocks and always makes clear he is biased. He discusses his favourites HERE

Go back and review his articles over 11 years HERE

Scotiabank Global Banking & Markets - Annual Mining Conference - Toronto - 3rd Dec 2013

Senior industry names attending with some 'themes' for discussion - HERE

Archived webcasts at Scotiabank - Day1 - Day 2 - Register HERE

• Goldcorp Transcript
• Barrick - Transcript
• Silver Wheaton - Transcript
• Eldorado - Transcript
• Kinross - Transcript
• Silver Standard/Pan American Silver / Tahoe / US Silver & Gold - Transcript

The Canadian Venture Index - Bre-X

A recent Eric Coffin presentation pointed to a long run chart of the Canadian Venture index. (the chart can be run at Marketwatch).

Comex Gold Claims Per Ounce

There is fierce debate as to how significant this is. The best I can say is there looks to be a significant increase in claims per ounce recently. (Update 21/12 - Longer term chart now updated by Jesse showing that this ratio is dramatically out of line with historic levels.)

Tracked by Jesse

Adrian Day, Jim Dines discuss Junior Miners with Rick Rule at San Francisco Metals & Money 2013

From the San Francisco Metals & Money Conference

Michael Shaoul - Gold to $1000 ?

A number of commentators point to support for gold around $1000.

Eric Swarts - Gold & Silver Reflation Trade

Over at Market Anthropology Erik Swarts makes a call for bottoming in commodities and the precious metals. Having pointed to the 2011 top, and stood aside since, not suckered by the interim bounces like so

580 Global Gold Deposits > 1m oz

An update to the analysis of global gold deposits >1m oz by NRH and Visual Capitalist, including oz, grade, ownership, jurisdiction and production status.

GDX / GDXJ Lows? - Franco Nevada's Assets

Franco Nevada's performance over the past 2 years stands out dramatically from the rest of the PM Market as they deliver on growth. Chairman Pierre Lassonde is widely respected in the industry.

Cook, Coffin & Kaiser in Discussion Nov-13

Jay Taylor in discussion with Brent Cook, Eric Coffin and John Kaiser.
short notes below.....

Jay Taylor - Newsletter Sample Sept 2013

A free sample of Jay Taylor's letter from Sept-13. He is one of the more gold-bug writers and note the disclaimers....

Mining Jurisdiction - Behre Dolbear Report 2013

Australia, Canada, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, US    top the table again.

Linked  HERE

I see Otto at Peru based Inca Kola is distinctly unimpressed with their South American views !

Barrons - Gold Mining Merger Wave? - Cowen&Co Miner Market Cap vs PNAV

An article at Barrons discusses the likeliehood of Gold Mergers as miners look forward to production falls after 2017 - HERE
Includes the nice graph below comparing market cap and valuation highlighting the senior and junior producers and developers

Global Resource Investment Trust - GRIL/GRIT Junior Mining Share Exchanges

"Global Resource Investment Trust" has been involved in a significant number of recent fund-raising commitments with some very small cap junior exploration and development companies across a number of metals and minerals. The financing is unusual, through Share Exchange agreements......more..........

Junior Mining Streaming - Sandspring / Silver Wheaton

Silver Wheaton announced significant potential financing for one of the large low grade deposits developed in the last cycle - Sandspring (SSP.v) who hold the Toroparu deposit in Guyana....more....

PWC Review of the Top 100 Venture Companies

Juniors in Survival Mode - includes year on year combined balance sheet comparatives

Peter Brandt - Chart History of the Gold Market - Nov-13 Update

Brandt suggests that Gold, for all its apparent volatility, is "the most reliable chart market in the world" and in conclusion sees no sign of a bottom.
http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-history-gold-market-revised-november-2013/

Remembrance

Remember Remember

The fifth of November,
The Gunpowder treason and plot

FT's Dizard - Gold's Next Move could be Discontinuous and Dramatic

The Financial Times tends to have a pretty dismal view of gold. John Dizard is one of their more off-beat contributors. HERE he discusses unusual signals in physical premiums in India and China.

........the continuing high level of premiums for physical gold over the kinds you can trade on a screen suggests that the next move in the major gold indices or the various exchange traded funds could be discontinuous and dramatic. It would be much better for the financial world if gold were just bumping along, with only enough volatility and liquidity to keep a few dealers’ lights on. That would mean electronic or paper assets have retained their essential credibility with the public........“This could turn into a very violent wake-up for (screen-traded gold). People talk about ‘fiat currencies’, but we also have fiat gold. Volatility is too cheap right now.”

Lawrence Roulston - "We're Seeing a Very significant Rebound"

Just posted but looks like interview was late summer / pre-September conferences.
Some have doubled, many 20-30% off the lows.
The stocks with the strongest rebounds may still offer best value.

Junior Gold M&A - Eldorado Acquire Glory Resources

Eldorado held 20% of Glory Resources and today announced acquisition of the remainder for $30.5m.
Glory hold a small (637k oz P&P), but high grade (15.1g/T) project proximate to Eldorado on Thrace, Greece. Emphasising the renewed focus on high grade and profit margins.

Eric Coffin - Who Dares Wins

Target high margin deposits and miners
Discovery has turned the sector many times in the past. Juniors need to focus on the "new".
Focus on Good Jurisdictions abandon the bad.

Halloweeeen

Junior Gold Mining M&A - B2 Gold to Buy Volta Resources

Growth Consolidator B2 Gold has announced another acquisition, Burkina Faso based Volta Resources.
In an all stock deal Volta is valued at approx $60-70m for a low grade 5m oz resource. .....more ......

Incrementum 50 Gold Charts

This has been out for a while - 50 charts from Incrementum
One of their charts correlating Central Bank balance sheets and Gold referred to HERE by Titan Investment

Drill Hole Results Database

A new service I noticed "Gradewise" looks to be associated with "Corebox"

I have linked both on the "Geology / Visual Deposits" right side bars.

Early stage junior exploration isn't a popular investment area at the moment but for everyone who wishes they bought Atac at 10c, after great drill results in 2008 but before a run to near $10 it is always worth keeping an eye out for great drill results in bad markets.

http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/p/gold-silver-discovery-stocks.html

http://www.gradewise.net/

http://www.corebox.net/

Gold Prices Ready to Take Off Again - Larry Edelson

Edelson has a good record in staying well away from gold and the miners since calling the gold market top, a little early, in 2011. ......more.....

OT - Morrissey Autobiography - Johnny Marr interview

Not sure I could read through this but perhaps I should.
Morrissey's lyrics. Marr's guitar.

Gold Mines to Build

Stories of financing and construction for two juniors this week

Torex has been one of the stronger stocks through the downturn with a $700m+ market cap, backed by high cash  from financing, though price has still halved from 2012 peak -  announced the start of mine construction this week at the Morelos property.

Asanko Gold (previously Keegan) raised $150m debt financing, conditional on DFS, from Red Kite meaning Esaase Gold mine should be fully financed.

John Doody - Gold Mining Stocks Bottom and Undervaluation

Steve Sjuggerud often recommends John Doody's work and points to his call of a June bottom in mining stocks back in July 2013. Also looking to undervaluation indicator.........more .....

Canadian Venture Breaks out of 2 Year Downtrend ?

A number of technicians are pointing to potential bottoming since June and a breakout on the Canadian Venture Exchange. ....... more

Australian Geoscience - Gold Deposits & Exploration

The Australian Government maintains an active interest in their mineral exploration and production sector. Given the current woes of the Canadian venture exchange perhaps more opportunities will open for the Australian financiers, or perhaps the woes are shared, just more vocal in the US & Canada?......more

My Own Market Narrative

Traffic suddenly shot up today and I see a mention at My Own Market Narrative

OT - Rumelt on Strategy

For anyone who has seen the bad I'm finding this very very good.
http://goodbadstrategy.com/

Mining M&A Decline - Ripe for Consolidation ?

Bloomberg article questioning where the buyers of junior deposits will come from.
Vancouver Venture and recent articles posted here suggest value investors and Private Equity could be looking to consolidate - money may come from outside the sector.....more

Brent Cook on Pretium Resources

Pretium has been one of the few gold juniors to maintain a reasonable performance in 2013 given an apparently large very high grade resource, following elections in BC seen as favourable for development, cash in the treasury and the experienced Bob Quartermain at the helm.
However recent news that Strathcona resigned from the bulk sampling project has deepened serious concerns, primarily around grade continuity, and a plunge in the stock price.
Analysis from Brent Cook dating back to June 2013
and IKN from August 2013
While Bob Quartermain defends HERE - but IKN questions this above...
Metal Augmentor suggest that the bulk mining option was always very ambitious and selective high grade mining and potential later bulk mining can still be followed.

Casey's Junior Gold Portfolio

March 2013 pre-PDAC recommendations referenced with some scepticism by Otto at IKN given poor performance since, though that would be true of many.
HERE

Rick Rule Interview - Divergent Opinions at Sprott?

Interview with Rick Rule - HERE
A lot of the same as always quotes - "Be a contrarian or be a victim" etc, some truth. Also

But what it also says that’s very beneficial for the long term is that the mining industry is beginning to understand that they have to deliver something besides production. They have to deliver profits............I think the damage in the juniors has been extensive enough that I am personally of the view that the very best issuers are cheap enough. It isn’t to say that they couldn’t get cheaper but my own personal bias is much more on the long side than on the short side with the best issuers.

there is a dearth of projects that make really good returns on capital employed at these gold prices. So the juniors ......that make good discoveries or the companies that are still advancing on very economic feasibility studies will get taken over in the next 18 months. 

 Interestingly points to divergent opinions within Sprott. ........more....

Private Equity Target Natural Resources ? Denver Gold Show Best Attended in History as Institutions look for value?

A number of PE companies are raising funds with mining targets, 77 funds solely targeting natural resources

The Wandering Greg Gibson

Greg Gibson features on the "Good People Good Projects" page as someone to keep an eye on after he sold Trelawny to Iamgold for $585m in 2012, in hindsight an excellent deal for Trelawny shareholders in a project some cast doubt on. Since then Gibson has taken on directorships across Canadian Gold Mining.

Silver Mining M&A - Hochschild Buy International Minerals

Hochschild were recently noted as being on the lookout for acquisitions.....more.....

Pat DiCapo on Junior Gold Investment

Interesting interview form an influential investor in the gold space.

Gold Junior Webcasts from Colorado Precious Metals Summit

I don't have the best connection but good quality webcasts from a number of interesting Gold & Silver Juniors over 3 days' presentations.
http://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2013/09/18/precious-metals-summit

Red Kite Mine Finance - Orion Mine Finance

A story noted by both IKN and CEO.CA

Lewnowski wanted to pursue a strategy of building a portfolio of smaller mining firms while RK believed mining finance should be strictly tied to offtake agreements, said a source with knowledge of the matter, declining to be identified. 

Their list of previous transactions is a very mixed bag... One of the first ATW was a disaster for stock-holders, Great Basin went bust, Norseman Gold fell hard. But perhaps if you provide the finance secured on assets there is something to be gained, Golden Predator, now America;s Bullion Royalty look set to lose assets to Red Kite. Some of the other companies in the deals are more respected.
http://www.rkminefinance.com/transactions.aspx

September FOMC - No Tapering

The Fed announcement.......

Hochschild Look for Acquisitions

London listed Silver Miner Hochschild currently operate in Peru, Mexico and Argentina and are developing, to the surprise of many, the Volcan project, ex Andina, in Chile. 

They currently produce 20m oz and target 30m oz in 2015.

They may now look to acquire in Canada, US, Brazil and Colombia.

Spending $50m on exploration after cuts.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hochschild-mulls-acquisitions-in-new-countries-2013-09-18

7 Aussie Gold Miner Take-over Targets

A review of 7 potential deals at The Bull - HERE

OT - Arctic Monkeys AM

New album from the Sheffield boys

Mining Jurisdiction Risk - Mexico Raises Mining Royalties

A reminder of the importance of jurisdiction in selecting mining investments.

I have seen previous discussion of the risk that Mexico will suffer from a heavy dependency on declining oil exports and will look to the mining sector to compensate.

It appears this process may be starting with a 7.5% royalty plus 0.5% sales tax. HERE

This on the same day as Torex announced resources and potential at Media Luna

Mines & Money Hong Kong 2013

While this conference was in March it looks to have been one of the bigger events linking Asian finance with primarily Australian miners but also plenty of Canadian and others, over 300 exhibitors.

Post-show document
http://www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/MMHK2013_postshowreport.pdf

Toronto Resource Investment Conference 2013

While there are 167 larger companies presenting at the Denver Gold show the retail and junior miners / explorers through Cambridge House in Toronto look very thin on the ground suggesting previous higher company turnouts had been paid for before the big market downturns. Many of the exhibitors are newsletters and publications rather than companies.
http://cambridgehouse.com/event/13165/exhibitors
Attendees.....

Li Ka-shing's CEF Holdings looks to resources and Gold Miners ?

As noted by Lawrence Roulston mining buyers may come from outside the sector aswell as from within.

CEF Holdings, a venture between Li Ka-shing's flagship company and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), is looking to invest in gold mining companies after a slump in prices created buying opportunities.

Denver Gold Show - 2013

The big conference. Likely M&A targets are here.
The audience is institutional rather than retail so big money looks here.
From the schedule it appears that the dates are organised by company type so the dates in the company list below should be useful.
http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf13/dgf13-schedule.html

http://www.denvergoldforum.org/dgf13/

Company lists below, plenty of companies attending.
There may be some promotion but the site suggests "attendance may be limited due to unusual demand" which I do not recall last year. Is there a sign that institutions are looking at the values in the sector?
The links on company name are to some tidy company summary pages including top shareholders, capital structures and presentations after the conference.
Company websites may have updated presentation/powerpoints earlier.

Precious Metals Summit Conference 2013

Conference Season. Webcasts usually follow
http://www.precioussummit.com/event/2013-summit-colorado/

more......

AMEC - Australian Exploration Conference 2013

September Conference season
http://www.amec.org.au/events/convention-2013

10 Cashed Up Juniors

Mining Markets, the Northern Miner's quarterly magazine reviews 10 cashed up companies with potential.

Part 1 - HERE
Part 2 - HERE

Gold Exploration 10 and more Baggers

A few updates to the list of big recent discovery holes and "hot stocks"

Hopefully as this list develops the charts show the all too familiar rise and fall risk.

If we see an improved market in the next couple of years some of these stocks will likely feature and some of the fallers will build back on their initial discovery holes.
Some recent discoveries are in tightly share structures with good insider ownership.
Others will likely prove to have been the one hit wonders.
Review management, insiders and financing !

http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/p/gold-silver-discovery-stocks.html

Africa Down Under 2013

A number of Australian companies are exploring in Africa, there were some spectacular stock performances in the junior stock run through 2010-11.

This conference may update on progress. See also the "Regional Exploration - West Africa" page HERE

https://www.africadownunderconference.com/aarf/

http://www.africadownunderconference.com/resources/--adu13--programme_with-titles.pdf

Exploration Trends

HT Inca Kola

http://incakolanews.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/exploration-trends-by-kip-keen-of.html

Which follows on from this much fuller presentation from Minex Consulting
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/outlook-for-exploration-minex-consulting.html

Martin Luther King - I Have a Dream

On August 28th, 1963, at the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom, Martin Luther King stepped to the podium in front of the Lincoln Memorial. Around 10 minutes into his speech, King sounded as though he were wrapping up when Mahalia Jackson, the gospel singer and King's friend, shouted: "Tell them about the dream Martin". He ignored her at first. Then she shouted again. He put the text to the left of the lectern, grabbed the podium and, after a pause more pregnant than most, started to riff.

King's adviser Clarence Jones turned to the person next to him and said: "Those people don't know it, but they're about to go to church."

It's 50 years since Martin Luther King gave the speech that stands as one of the nation's favourite addresses delivered by one of its most beloved figures. But "I have a dream" wasn't in the text of the speech and its mainstream popularity only grew after King was assassinated.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b038xmfr

To listen and read in full, 50 years ago today.
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/mlkihaveadream.htm

And some powerful images and readings by contemporary figures on BBC Radio 4, see links at the bottom of the BBC page for interviews and discussion.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23853578

Bulls on Gold and Miners

Quite a number identifying a bottom in gold and the miners.
After some of the better mining stocks are up well over 50%  ! Looking for pullbacks ....?     ...................more.........

Charts on Value in Gold Miners - Commercials - GOFO and Comex Stocks

Some interesting charts

Major Gold Producers and Developers - Roger Bade at Whitman Howard

These Reports are somewhat dated, from November 2012 and February 2013 but now seem rather prescient in their focus on economics at lower gold prices.
Indeed Bade seems fairly bearish on gold and the miners

We are on record as arguing that this is a sector steeped in mediocrity. The sector has focussed on production and per ounce valuations for too long and will be forced to focus on shareholders’ returns as competition increases for the investor dollar.

The Major Gold Producers - HERE  - and a review of the article HERE 
A good appendix at the end trending return on shareholders' funds.

The Major Gold Developers - HERE

Of course a turn and upward trend in gold prices may see leverage come back to marginal stocks

MORE DETAIL.....

Outlook for Exploration - Minex Consulting

HT to IKN 

A very comprehensive survey of trends in mineral exploration and discovery from Minex Consulting who also make available a large number of additional reports and some interesting sources / links

Emphasises the enormous increases in expenditures but limited paybacks in discovery and, again in the mining industry, cost increases at the exploration stage.......MORE

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Alamos Gold to Buy Esparanza Resources

Alamos Gold announced a friendly takeover of Esparanza Resources for approx C$69m having been recently beaten to the much larger Aurizon by Hecla.
Run by the ex Minefinders team (acquired by Pan American Silver) they could have sat on cash ($36m at end 2012) so what has prompted an immediate sale?
Again only a few very recent buyers will be making a profit on Esparanza even though the stock was up over 30%......MORE

Bernanke - Highly Accomodative Policy Needed for the Foreseeable Future

After all the happy talk

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100877586

Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continues to need highly accommodative monetary policy. Answering questions at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research Bernanke said that when looking at the Fed's dual mandate on employment and inflation more work needed to be done. He said the 7.6 percent unemployment rate probably "overstates the health of the labor market" and that inflation remains below the Fed's 2 percent target. Moreover, fiscal policy remains "quite restrictive," Bernanke said.

And just after Goldman and JP Morgan had called a bottom in commodities
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2013/07/02/jp-morgan-mimics-the-goldman-sachs-view-of-an-improving-commodity-outlook/

Gold Did This

Dollar Did This

Problems with Technical Disclosures - Ontario Securities Review

Report detailing problems with technical reports and disclosures.

Mineweb summary - HERE

Full OSC Review - HERE

Tocqueville Q2-13 Letter - John Hathaway

Linked HERE

We observe profound internal change within the industry which suggests to us that the strongest companies will deliver compelling upside performance when the metals markets turn. These changes include substantial scale backs of capital spending and other measures to preserve cash and reduce expenses. As managers, we are focusing on companies with the strongest financials and best assets.

short positions of these traders are higher than at the bottom in 2008 (chart below), after which gold rallied 167% and mining shares 256% (basis XAU)

The Forces That Will Drive the Next Bull Market in Gold and Silver - Larry Edelson

Edelson has been a long term gold bull but rightly very bearish since 2011 expecting a "normal" 2 year correction of the long bull run, he took criticism in 2011 for becoming bearish ahead of the top.
He puts forward a strong case for the key drivers of the bull going forwards and suggests some new correlations. He suggests that war cycles are a key driver going forwards. Money printing will be less significant as the financial holes are so large they cannot be filled and that realisation, and defaults and bail ins, will drive the flight to safety. He sees inflation is some way off, 2015-6,  but the hoarding of supply will drive prices up in precious metals.
Linked - HERE

In other recent articles he has looked to find major support  at $1028 - HERE

Pierre Lassonde Calls for a 50% rebound in the Miners

One of the most respected leaders in the Gold Mining Industry, Pierre Lassonde, suggests we are within 5% of the bottom and suggests a big bounce into September - See Link HERE

“So my feeling is we are seeing the maximum stress right now.  I think $1,200, plus or minus $30 is where you are going to see the bottom in gold.”.............. I started buying this week.  I think there are a number of gold equities that are absolute bargains.  The liquidity trap has forced a lot of funds to sell.  But money is still leaving the sector.  That’s one of the reasons you are seeing this amount of stress. But I am absolutely 100% convinced that come September gold is going to be 20% to 30% higher than it is today and the stocks are going to be 50% higher.  So what am I doing?  Yes, now is the time to put money to work and that’s what I’m doing.”

Mike Shedlock Buys Basket of Large Gold & Silver Miners

Mike Shedlock is a prolific financial commentator with a deflationist perspective. However he has long had a constructive view on gold during deflation. He notes a recent  "significant" investment in gold and silver miners where he states

I believe precious metal miners represent true value, but I cannot state when the market will come to the same conclusion.

Full details - HERE

Also points to "Acting Man" discussing the "Plague of Gold Bears" - HERE

It is really quite remarkable: for ten years while gold did nothing but go up, most of these these guys were largely silent. Their gold price forecasts were on average dead wrong with unwavering regularity - they kept predicting price declines. Then, as it approached its peak, they suddenly turned bullish and finally raised their price targets (again, on average). Now that it is going through the first major correction since the bull market began, its decline is accompanied by inordinate sound and fury. No other market has produced such a flurry of widely and loudly telegraphed grave dancing.

The Formation of the Gold Price - Robert Blumen

A detailed discussion of gold price drivers
HERE

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle - 2013 - In Gold we Trust

The latest in a series of wide ranging reviews of the gold market by Stoeferle. - Linked  HERE

Funds - Opening and Closing

As one fund closes due to redemptions - Taurus Funds in Australia - HERE
Another suggests it's time to invest - Vulpes Investment out of Singapore under previous Artradis traders - HERE

“At no time in the past 12 years, realistically, have I seen the broader macro picture line up more positively in favor of rising gold prices,” Williams said March 5. “Right now, the perception is we don’t need the protection that gold offers. My contention is the risks essentially have never been higher.”  Vulpes founder Diggle was once Singapore’s biggest hedge- fund manager at Artradis Fund Management Pte, where he made $2.7 billion for investors during 2007 and 2008. Williams also worked with him at Artradis.

PWC and E&Y Mining Reports

Two interesting reports out recently

Junior Gold M&A - New Gold to Acquire Rainy River

New Gold's offer for Rainy River (News - Link - in full pasted below) saw a 35% jump in price yesterday, however only recent buyers, or those from many years ago, will be making an immediate profit. The deal is a variable mix of cash and stock valued at approximately $310m net of RR's $90m cash.  ....more.......

World Resource Investment Conference Vancouver 2013

Presentations and Interviews Linked HERE
List of exhibitors below. Hard to be sure in this environment whether those still exhibiting paid upfront and continue, have something new they are keen to promote or are urgently seeking cash - check the balancesheets.
Including Brent Cook suggesting a major miner will fail or at least close mines. Midtiers B2, Yamana etc can pick what they want as a buying opportunity - Many gold miners have $1300-$1500 all in costs, many cutting exploration and development.  Compares to the long 97-2002 bust - won't be pulled out by money pumping like 2008, investment is elsewhere in the stockmarket. Buying good economic deposits in the meantime. Renewed focus on juniors' management, cash, business plan.

Gold Stocks

Steve Sjuggerud's review of Gold stock potential - HERE

"Gold stocks are a better trade today than they were at the bottom in 2008," the best trader I know told the crowd last week.

Increasing Short Positions in Gold

From Moneyweek - HERE
Derived from Zerohedge - HERE

Soros buys Call Options on Gold Juniors GDXJ

While Bloomberg discussed a reduced holding of GLD Soros was taking a bigger bet on the Miners and even more aggressively buying $25m call options on the juniors amongst over $200m in gold positions.

HERE

Quinton Hennigh Interview

Hennigh is a geologist and company leader who has also teamed up with Brent cook at Exploration Insights. Interviewed here at CEOca

Discussing Novo Resources
Interested in Pretium, Dalradian and Roxgold

Rick Rule on Miners

Discusses what he is doing with his own money at KWN

About once every 10 years you come into a situation where you can buy high quality managements for the same prices that you can low quality managements.  That is the situation we are dealing with right now in the resource markets.

Gold Demand Trends - WGC Q1-13

Full Report available at the World Gold Council - HERE
A reminder of the critical role Indian and Chinese demand play

NY Hard Assets Conference Interviews

A number linked HERE, yet to watch and review

Junior Gold Quarterly Results

A roundup of Q1-13 Results - HERE

Peter Brandt - Wary of Remaining Bearish on Silver

Brandt has called the technical breakdown in Gold and Silver well since 2011.

Readers may recall this "Opus" previously, we should all have paid more attention.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/peter-brandt-30-years-of-chart-patterns.html

Today Brandt points to the Silver COT data as being typical of a bottom, though he is not yet bullish

CFTC COT data in major buy territory for Silver

Other traders are pointing to similar positioning in the Gold market, for example Geoff Goetz at Bill Cara.com

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/gold-commitment-of-traders-report-2/

http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/four-pillars-trading-solution-gold/

Swanson Nibbling at the Miners

Mike Swanson has been a trader with a long term inclination to the miners who has stood aside for some time since 2011

He has published some good articles since the April gold plunge

This Is the Final Liquidation of the Gold Bug - Mike Swanson (04/14/2013)

Why The Gold Bear Attack Crash Really Happened - Mike Swanson (04/16/2013)

A Gold Pivot is Coming 

Buying Gold and Silver Stocks NEM, KGC, PAAS, HL, GDXJ - Mike Swanson (05/16/2013)

RIU Sydney Roundup

One of the bigger Aussie Resource Company Conferences - Watchlist below

OT - Peter Kay - Misheard Lyrics

Precious Metal Mining ETF - Company Watch Lists

Somewhere to watch the ETF component stocks for price changes, market caps and relative strength from 52 week highs and lows.
Beware multiple currencies and different exchange trading times (scroll right to see these).
A few odd results come out of google-finance, missing symbols where I have looked up Yahoo data or symbols without the usual exchange suffix.
Always double check the data !

See full lists below .....

Record Insider Buying in Juniors with Company Lists

Article - HERE

Company Lists - HERE - 

Brent Cook Q&A at Globe and Mail

Q&A from Brent Cook - HERE

My letter is about what I am doing w/ my money so it is therefore limited. I try to stick w/ the best--sometimes that works. But has been a rough year.

On Buying exploration and early developers now.

I would say yes, but very selectively. Know your company, its cash balance and plans... Better know what the company is looking at, what it could be worth and how much it would take to prove or disprove that thesis....................I suspect that when this market comes out of this the small profitable producers will do best. Exploration plays are tough to pick, at least ones that will work...

Likes B2 Gold and Fortuna. Lydian again. Likes team at North Country Gold but wary of Arctic location and capex. Wary of Lakeshore. Thinks Kirkland Lake will turnaround. Likes Midas & Belo Sun. Doesn't like Eco Oro.

Rick Rule Interviews

Rule seems to have been more active than usual on the interview circuit.
Indicates Sprott have $400m ready to invest, though some may suspect they are facing problems with redemptions which as Rule himself indicates drives selling in the most liquid stocks. There was something of a hit piece on Sprott in the Globe & Mail recently, there must be plenty of disappointed investors.

Rule suggests, as usual, that stock selection is critical but there are stocks with high potential; there may be further capitulation and a drift down through the summer doldrums before a gradual turn up after the summer.
Interview at CEO.CA - HERE
Interview at Bull Market Thinking HERE

Goldman and SocGen Bearish Gold Notes

Bearish notes from first SocGen and then Goldman this month are seen as some part of the plunge in gold on Friday.

Bill Cara has them posted in full
SocGen - HERE
Goldman - HERE

Some thoughts from Gene Arensberg - Are Goldman "initiating" a short position as this chart reaches the highest levels in years?

Gold Technicals and Sentiment

Good Review at the Acting Man Blog - HERE

Troy Bid for Azimuth in Guyana

Australian companies (also listed on Toronto) Troy and Azimuth are looking to combine, using Troy's cash, cashflow from production, and recent mine building experience, to develop Azimuth's near surface relatively high grade (3g/T) deposit in Guyana.
Troy's stock has been weak, along with many other gold miners', recently with added concerns around operations in Argentina.
The deal would value Azimuth at $188m, a 60% premium similar to Troy's Market CAP.
Troy's stock traded at A$2.40-2.50 pre-announcement, down to A$1.90 today giving an MCap of A$173m

Article at Mineweb - HERE
Broker Note at Resources Roadhouse - HERE

Japan to double Monetary Base - $1.4 Trillion QE - Currency Crisis to Follow?

Retuters Report - HERE

Kyle Bass - Currency Crisis forecast - HERE

Reuters : The Bank of Japan unleashed the world's most intense burst of monetary stimulus on Thursday, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economyin less than two years, a radical gamble that sent the yen reeling and bond yields to record lows..................more...................

QE will never be Reversed - Woodford

Report by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Daily Telegraph - HERE (well worth reading in full)

Columbia Professor Michael Woodford, the world's most closely followed monetary theorist, says it is time to come clean and state openly that bond purchases are forever, and the sooner people understand this the better.

"All this talk of exit strategies is deeply negative," he told a London Business School seminar on the merits of Helicopter money, or "overt monetary financing".

He said the Bank of Japan made the mistake of reversing all its money creation from 2001 to 2006 once it thought the economy was safely out of the woods. But Japan crashed back into deeper deflation as soon the Lehman crisis hit.

"If we are going to scare the horses, let's scare them properly. Let's go further and eliminate government debt on the bloated balance sheet of central banks," he said. This could done with a flick of the fingers. The debt would vanish.

Lord Turner, head of the now defunct Financial Services Authority, made the point more delicately. "We must tell people that if necessary, QE will turn out to be permanent."

John Doody on Gold Stocks

Doody writes the Gold Stock Analyst. Discusses looking for miners HERE which;

• Are proven producers or are very near commencing production (avoid unproven exploration plays)
• Have big existing cash flows or are projected to grow their cash flows quickly in the next few years
• Compare favorably to their peer group on the following ratios:
  • market cap/ounce in reserves
  • market cap/cash flow
  • net margin
• Do not dilute their share base (this has been a huge problem in past years)
• Report an "all-in cash-cost" in their accounting. $900 or less is desired.

Happy Easter

OT- Lyrics - Radiohead - Joy Division - Morrissey

For when you can't get a song out of your head, don't catch all the lyrics, or consider.
>>> Song Meanings HERE

Meanwhile Radiohead covering Joy Division. And Morrissey - Everyday is Like Sunday

BMO Global Metals & Mining 2013 Research

BMO 200pp Mining Research & Analysis covering >100 stock universe
HERE

Down But Not Out - PWC - Global Mining Deals 2012 Review / 2013 Outlook

PWC Mining - HERE

Report - HERE    Quotes follow.....

US Dollar Topping or Ready to Break Decade Long Downtrend?

Two views of the US Dollar considering a resumption of the downtrend in place since 2001, or a break to the upside.
If the dollar lifts will Gold lift with it or revert to the inverse?

Considering a US Dollar Top - HERE
Or a rise of The Dollar AND Gold - HERE

Eric Coffin - Resource Sector Paradigm Shift

Eric Coffin of Hard Rock Advisory on the state of the miners. HERE . Discusses the renewed focus on smaller higher margin deposits.

Another article HERE at Bloomberg suggesting break up of the large miners to release value, "shrink to grow" allowing smaller groups to replace reserves, show growth, provide cleaner geographical and management focus with less mines.

Perhaps the contrarian view is that there is value in large advanced resources which could advance with a new move in the gold price ahead of cost inflation. The majors, under pressure from shareholders due to recent failures, are afraid of big projects and there will be less demand and pressure on industry wide mine design, build and operating service costs leaving the field open for smaller companies and private capital.

As an example, consider Newmont's sale of the large Hope Bay project (acquired from Miramar in 2007 for $1.5bn for 10.7m oz resource) to privately held TMAC Resources. Directors at TMAC previously cashed out of FNX mining and are involved with Torex Gold, one of the strongest juniors. The Hope Bay project has sunk development costs which saw Newmont take a $1.6bn writedown when they put it on care and maintenance in 2012. One key risk appears to be in reaching agreements with First Nations. (and HERE) Some steps in developing these relationships with "KIA" look to be underway. TMAC may consider the project in a different way, concentrating on vein mining. Perhaps Hope Bay will also serve as a test case for First Nations to reach agreements knowing that miners will walk away from projects, especially in remote regions like Nunavut, north of the Arctic Circle.

Geologists At the Bar - PDAC

Good interview at PDAC with Ron Stewart - ex Dundee,  Doug Kirwin, Brent Cook, Simon Ridgway - Goldgroup, Gram Brown - Anglo American
HERE

GDXJ Breaking Downtrend?

Stewart Thompson's weekly review shows this chart
HERE 

Some Miners Looking to Buy

Some successful miners are looking to Buy distressed assets

Archipelago - HERE

Mick Davies Looking to set up Xstrata 2.0 to buy distressed assets? - HERE

Teck Looking to Build Up gold Business - Involved with 100 Junior Companies - HERE

Hudbay Look to buy with Majors on the Sidelines - HERE

Commitment of Traders - Gene Arensberg

Gene Arensberg at the "GotGoldReport" analyses the Commitment of Traders reports in depth, read the full article for charts etc....more.....
....

Trading the miners

Good article at Vancouver Venture

Harbingers of a market bottom.

Pro-traders will be looking for the technical signs of a true turn before committing but I believe many are watching and will deploy significant funds against the negative sentiment levels.

HUI : SPX

Interesting chart from Bob Hoye
Article HERE

Gold, the Renmimbi and the Multi Reserve Currency System

Some see changes coming in the global currency system, China's and gold's place within it.
Here from the OMFIF

Turning High Risk into High Potential - Grant Thornton

Report on the Mining and Juniors sector HERE

The Monetary Base & Gold Prices

I have Added some links to the Blog, (below the gold price chart) tracking monetary base and Treasury operations
An interesting Review HERE with links to papers outlining unconventional monetary policy.
Will this latest break out in the monetary base see a delayed follow through in the gold price as seen previously?

Avondale Asset Management suggest a potential 2-3 month lag between expansion in the monetary base and gold prices. HERE

Peter Degraaf - Gold Review

Interesting collection of charts and indicators HERE

It has now been 78 weeks since gold reached a new all-time high price.  The correction of 2006 took 71 weeks.  The correction in 2008 took 77 weeks. 

This chart courtesy Goldmoney.com shows the current long vs short positions among hedge funds.  Here are the comments that came with the chart:  Managed money (ie hedge funds) is short of 47,357 gold contracts, a record, and can be seen as the red line in the chart below. There are 45 funds short – well over twice the average and very close to the record of 48. Furthermore, their net long position (green line) is close to all-time lows. Interestingly, the last time managed funds held record shorts was in May 2012, when gold bottomed out at $1,540 before rallying to the $1,800 October high

PDAC - 2013 Companies

The year's biggest Mining Convention is underway in Toronto over 4 days.
The miners and especially the juniors have much to prove.
Many analysts are looking for M&A and new discoveries to turn the market around and it is likely to be the junior companies to deliver this as compelling bid targets or making new finds.
In the current environment cash is king for the juniors, holding it on their balance sheets or the ability to raise it without excessive dilution.
More ......

Rule - Cook - Kaiser - Fulp at Cambridge house Palm Springs Conference

Much of the same ground as previous interviews but all on one panel....

Mine Construction - On Time & Under Budget

Recent failures to successfully deliver projects, by a number of miners from senior to junior, have centred on project management. Failures of control and management by managers, directors and owners on the ground.

Silvercrest will present at PDAC on how they feel they have done it right. 

It probably helps that they had a smaller project and could grip the detail.

The small contingent of stocks succeeding in this market are the growth producers who can deliver controlled, profitable growth moving good teams from one project to the next. Look for good levels of insider and management ownership to align interests.

Silvercrest's Summary........

The World's 10 Most Prolific Gold Fields

A summary of the Top 10 HERE
Some would add the Ontario Camps in Canada HERE

Jurisdiction Risk - Fraser Institute Survey 2012/13

The comprehensive annual survey of mining jurisdictions is just out ........

BMO Metals & Mining Conference Feb 2013

Links to Presentations - HERE

Jim Rickards Interview

Excellent Interview on Gold and Currency Wars at Kitco

PMI Gold and Keegan Terminate Merger

Interesting development in M&A - another suitor?

Think Pieces on the Miners and Juniors - Brent Cook, - Quinton Hennigh - John Kaiser - Rick Rule

As the gold price dips and the mining ETFs tumble three of the industry players and writers who urged caution last year deliver some thoughts on the problems of the sector and what can turn it around. There is a clear expectation for a big clear-out of the weak companies on the venture, with no cash and no credibility to finance, but great potential for the winners to deliver the quality projects the industry desperately needs with a new focus on discovery after years of developing marginal projects which should work at higher metal prices but are seeing cost inflation catch up with them.
Opinions on the potential acquirers from Cook.

FT Gold Miners in Search of Richer Seams - Rob McEwen Interview

FT coverage (below) of the issues ailing the gold miners.
Rhymes with Brent Cook. Miners looking for better grade, perhaps smaller, deposits. Looking to new frontiers while balancing risk and cash returns to share-holders.

However it is also worth considering Cohen's call to the miners to focus on gold as their functional currency, holding above ground reserves like ETFs - HERE

Rob McEwen discusses this practice and more in a recent interview HERE

Brent Cook

Interview at CEO.ca - HERE

Many of his usual themes. Suggests Vancouver's money is made in the early placements.

FT - Martin Wolf on The Case for Helicopter Money / Gavyn Davies - Helicopters can be Dangerous

Leading columnist Martin Wolf at the FT making the case for more aggressive use of money printing through public spending projects financed by the Central Banks..
HERE

And a counterpoint article by Gavyn Davies in the FT - on the Dangers
HERE

RIU Explorers - Australia Feb - 2013

The well regarded conference for Australian listed explorers.
Presentations by companies listed below.

Mining M&A - Hudbay seeking $400m of Acquisitions

An interesting discussion by Hudbay on their outlook and approach to mergers and acquisitions. Looking to add value to projects.

“We’re looking at a lot of things and I’m hoping that we can tuck something in this year,” Garofalo, 47, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s office in Toronto, where HudBay is based. “We’ve never been busier looking at opportunities.”

“I wouldn’t be surprised if you look down at the junior producer level to see some of those junior producers trying to consolidate to create a bit of critical mass and try to fill that void,” Garofalo said. “I think that will happen.” 

HERE

OT - Blackadder

Been too long .....

Silver Wheaton - $1.9bn Gold Streaming Deal with Vale

An interesting $1.9bn deal from Silver Wheaton, with significant diversification from primarily silver streaming into gold.

3 Tests on HUI

An interesting analysis here showing 3 tests of the bottom is typical for the gold miners.

HERE

Pierre Lassonde at AME-BC and interview

Pierre Lassonde speaking recently at the AME BC Roundup, and also interviewed on KWN......

PWC - 2013 Global Gold Survey

A review of miner trends by PWC. Includes a summary of key Mining M&A in 2012
Linked HERE

Junior Financing - Premier Gold

Premier Gold announced a deal to sell off their royalty interests to Sandstorm raising $70m. Cashed up for a number of projects or opportunities.

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=57590898&qm_symbol=PG

FOMC

Pre FOMC - interesting speech on Fed communication by Janet Yelland from Nov-12

The second property, which to me is the essence of the balanced approach, is that reducing the deviation of one variable from its objective must at times involve allowing the other variable to move away from its objective. In particular, reducing inflation may sometimes require a monetary tightening that will lead to a temporary rise in unemployment. And a policy that reduces unemployment may, at times, result in inflation that could temporarily rise above its target.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20121113a.htm

Speakers & Interviews at Vancouver 2013

Speakers at the Cambridge House Vancouver Conference
Presentations - HERE
Interviews - HERE
Korelin Interviews - HERE
Some Picks and notes below

Global Hedge Book Analysis - GFMS

Quarterly Reports on Hedging and De-hedging amongst the miners. .....more .....

Geoff Goetz at Cara Community - A turn for Gold and the Miners?

Geoff's timing and analysis have been excellent through 2012.
Now anticipating a turn for the miners. As a trader he clearly recognises the risk of the break down aswell as up.
HERE

Jay Taylor - Companies with Growth Potential

HERE
Looking for companies with strong balance sheets and growth
Discussion on streamer Sandstorm, top pick for 2013- have had a very good run already in 2012.
Project Generators - Eurasian, Riverside.

Deloitte - 2013 Top 10 issues mining for companies

HT My own Markert Narrative Blog: more ..........

AME BC Roundup - January 2013

The Association for Mineral Exploration - British Columbia (AME-BC) promotes mineral exploration in Western Canada.
However their Roundup Abstracts are excellent reading on exploration across Canada and by Canadian companies Internationally.................more....

John Hathaway - Tocquville Gold - Investor Report - 2012-Q4

A good collection of charts and monthly review from one of the leading gold fund managers

HERE

Once gold demonstrates that it can trade sustainably above $2000, or 20% above current levels, we believe that gold mining stocks could trade at 13%-15% of spot bullion (basis XAU). That would translate into appreciation of 60%-90% above the urrent XAU level of 160.

Investor sentiment on gold is currently extremely negative, comparable to the levels of mid-May 2012, when gold was trading approximately $100/oz below current levels.....Historically, extreme negative sentiment levels such as these have provided excellent entry points for new positions in bullion and the mining shares.

Mining stock valuations are driven by forecast gold prices, when the charts below point upwards perhaps it will be time to say everyone is in. Until then, as Pierre Lassonde said at Denver, - use spot.

Cambridge House - Vancouver Resource Investment Conference - Jan 2013

Many juniors are short of cash, although select stocks don't have a problem raising cash it seems,

Gold Mining M&A - Alamos bid for Aurizon $780m

Again a strongly rated stock, Alamos, bidding for a poor performer.

OT - Panto Style - York

Peculiarly British Panto.

Bonds and Gold - Chris Laird

Well worth reading and full consideration. The 30 year bond bull market, zero bound rates, accelerating debt growth and the rise in gold are intimately related. Some would say the turn in that bond bull market will be the trigger for gold's greatest upleg.
Laird HERE