Junior Gold Producer Valuation Comparisons - BMO

A detailed analysis of a series of producing juniors for relative valuation by BMO, recently discussed at the Northern Miner......

Juniors that Cheered the Market in 2012

Article from Mining Markets with 8 of the all too few exploration discoveries from 2012, quite a number of which have fallen back hard, perhaps offering another chance to consider, others still leading.

HERE

Happy Christmas

Barron's - What a Gold Mine

Mainstream Barron's report suggesting Miners are a smart way to play Gold.

HERE

Broker/Analyst Gold Stock Picks for 2013

See Links ......

Japan's New Carry Trade Reflation - Evans Pritchard

From Evans Pritchard's Column.

 The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation could prove a powerful tonic for the global economy, with stimulus leaking into bourses and bond markets - a variant of the "carry trade" earlier this decade but potentially on a larger scale.......more

PWC - Junior Mining / Australian / Major Mining Reports

An annual review of the top 100 venture companies and sector issues.

Dahlman Rose & Co. Global Metals, Mining and Materials Conference

Presentations by some of the main US listed Miners.

Junior Silver M&A - First Majestic to Buy Orko Silver

First Majestic is a well rated growth silver Miner, here again using a strong stock price to acquire a long standing junior silver developer, Orko, with its Preciosa deposit for $380m, a premium of 70% to recent prices.
Orko have a resource estimate of 110m oz resource and 154m oz inferred and still awaiting a PEA to consider open pit mining economics.
Pan American Silver previously decided not to proceed with a right to earn into the project. ........

Abe wins Japanese Election - Global Print?

Will Japan do "unlimited easing"
Good for gold, or a mirage strong US$ ?

Couer D'Alene Buy Mirasol's Interest in Joaquin Silver Project

The Joaquin project is in Argentina, which has seen investors running scared of project nationalisation, risks of being unable to take cash and profits out of the country and some more localised permitting issues.

Gold Junior M&A - Primero Acquire Cerro Resources

Primero are one of the juniors in Mexico with a Goldcorp relationship/history.

John Kaiser - Discovery Cycle Coming

Kaiser expounds on his thesis, detailed in recent links to his articles at this blog, that the trading culture on the TMX is killing the junior sector.


Kaiser emphasises that a resource discovery cycle is coming after a resource feasibility cycle.
Rick Rule has also suggested the shock  will be the discovery cycle to come.
It is the smallest juniors which will drive new discoveries.

Golden Points to Ponder - Rick Mills

A good overview, familiar from a number of presentations by Mining leaders previously posted here, summarising the shortage of large gold discoveries, the reducing grade and quality of deposits and the growing attractiveness of low total cost deposits and discoveries held by junior companies.

At Ahead of the Herd

Rick Rule - Sprott Asset Management - Largest Capital in the world now entering the Gold & Silver Space

Interview with Rick Rule at KWN

Mylchreest - Thunder Road - The Ultimate Bubble is in Money itself - Gold & Silver "Go To" Assets

Paul Mylchreest's Thunder Road Report now published by Seymour Pierce is deep reading on Gold and on its place during Long Wave Kondratieff cycles.........

Brent Cook - Profiting from the Dismal State of Gold Miners and Explorers

Cook raises similar issues to Kaiser (see recent post) but sees a mining industry that is in dire need of quality economic discoveries.

Full article HERE

John Kaiser - Venture Market Survey and Finding One Big Anomaly

These papers by the ever analytical John Kaiser have been widely referenced by the likes of Rick Rule and Brent Cook.

Gold Junior Merger - Keegan and PMI Ventures to form Asanko Gold

Two neighbouring junior gold developers in Ghana are to merge utilising Keegan's $200m cash to advance PMI's Obotan deposit into production during 2014 at 200koz pa and develop Keegan's Esaase project by 2017 to create a 400k oz pa producer. They should now be fully funded to progress.

Gold Junior Financings - Aureus & Midway

A few are getting money recently to Develop mines

Midway in Nevada for $70m

Aureus - in Liberia for $80m

Gold Junior M&A - Maudore propose Merger with Eagle Hill

Maudore propose merger with Eagle Hill, consolidation of their Windfall Lake deposit with Noront's stake and financing.
Propose synergies with Comtois deposit.

San Francisco Hard Assets Companies

A Review at the always interesting Metal Augmentor

http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/this-is-hard-assets-thoughts-from-san-francisco.html

Gold as a Tier 1 Bank Asset - Sprott

There has been discussion for some time around gold's potential to re-enter the monetary system with an increased weighting on bank balance sheets if "Basel III" / BIS rulings change the risk weightings to be applied. Sprott makes clear there is still much to be confirmed.

Mickey Fulp Interview at Beneath the Surface

Fulp is a Geologist newsletter writer who gains some respect in the industry and has warned of hard times for the junior companies for some time.

JUMEX Survey - Grant Thornton Junior Mining & Exploration

Key issues; funding, regulation, labour availability.
Increased M&A activity is likely if funding conditions do not improve as companies with cash take advantage.
Linked HERE

London Bullion Market Association - LBMA - Conference - Hong Kong - 2012 - Marc Faber Slides - Barrick Mining Presentation

The LBMA Conference 2012 agenda and presentations.

Ron Rosen - Bullish Gold, Silver, HUI Price Targets 2014

An interesting view of price targets, with the most bullish outlook for the Gold mining stocks from Ron Rosen on KWN..... Including Update 26th Nov

Pierre Lassonde at Grant's Autumn 2012 Conference

A good presentation of gold's fundamentals by Pierre Lassonde, one of the industry's most successful figures.

Brent Cook - Tips for Picking Companies with Potential

Brent Cook on Beneath the Surface with Scott Gibson.......

Peter Brandt - 30 Years of Chart Patterns in Gold

Quite a document by Peter Brandt reviewing chart patterns in Gold over 30 years........

Ian McAvity Gold Price Targets

Technical analyst Ian McAvity suggests gold price support at $1650 and a break out above $1,800 being key to see $2,000 by year end and on past gain percentages seeing $2,600 as early as February / March. Others see a longer journey to those levels.

Will Japan target 2-3% inflation?

Japan's election following the US and Chinese leadership change is discussing money printing "solutions".
Article here

Rick Rule at San Francisco Hard Assets

Rick Rule interviewed by Daniella Cambone at Kitco news.......

Jim Sinclair - Gold Balancing the International Balance sheet of the US / Technicals

Recent Posts discussing Gold price objectives to balance the International Balance sheet of the US and technical analysis.

Cashed Up Buyers of Junior Miners and Explorers?

A discussion of Capstone and Nevsun's cash holdings, $500-700m and $400m respectively, perhaps for Mergers and acquisitions.
Will they stick to base metals or look to gold?
Nevsun is a significant gold producer already in Africa, Capstone is more Copper focussed but is funding an IOCG exploration venture with Westminster resources in Mexico, so might be interested in diversification.

HERE

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Osisko to buy Queenston

The junior developer buyouts keep coming.
Here Osisko, now in production with very large open pit mine, securing in Queenston a large position in the Kirkland Lake camp, with Upper Beaver the most developed asset which could get into production by 2016.

Paying $550, EV $400m

Story HERE

High Stakes Speculation

I'm not usually a fan of Casey, but this is quite a good article from Louis James on what it can take to hit the 10-baggers speculators look for in grass roots gold exploration stocks.

11.11 - Remembrance

More.....

Gold Junior M&A Valuation Comparisons

A comparison of Prodigy and Galway acquisition valuation metrics by Danny Deadlock at Stockhouse.

Randall Oliphant - Virtues of Growth Mid-Tier and Junior Miners - New Gold Looking for M&A Targets

Interview with Barrick's former head now at New Gold with several other leading industry figures including Pierre Lassonde, Robert Gallagher, Raymond Threlkeld and Martin Konig.

Gold Junior M&A - Hochschild buy Andina

"Hochschild has agreed, subject to the terms of the Support Agreement, to make an offer to purchase all of the outstanding common shares of Andina by way of a friendly take-over bid at a price of C$0.80 per share in cash (the "Offer").

Obama Wins - Good for Gold - Don Coxe

Interview at Kitco

Monumental Move for Gold - 15x3 Point & Figure

From KWN News - LINK HERE to read more and see chart

Ron Rosen - “The 15 X 3 point and figure chart shows us that there have been three major selloffs since the year 1980.  Each bullish breakout from the selloff has returned to and successfully tested the breakout line.  The middle breakout line was tested twice.
Once the tests were complete a huge bull move began.  The current breakout, like the previous two breakouts, is being tested.  It would be most unusual if the breakout line was not tested.  When the test is complete, we will most likely see the biggest move of this entire gold bull market.

US Debt and Dollar Risk - The Triffin Dilemma - Council on Foreign Relations

According the the Council on Foreign Affarirs

The bimonthly Foreign Affairs is widely considered to be the most influential magazine for the analysis and debate of foreign policy and economics. Its website,ForeignAffairs.com, publishes original daily features and hosts the complete archives going back to 1922. 

Bonds and Flows to Gold - Don Coxe

Some time, the 30 year bond bull ends.
It may already have done so.
Or it may take years and the heads of many who try to short, as in Japan.

Junior Mining Buzzword Bingo

Very funny find at Inca Kola from Javelin Partners.
All too familiar from the world of junior mining powerpoint promotions.....

http://incakolanews.blogspot.co.uk/2012/11/junior-mining-buzzword-bingo.html

OT - Northumberland

Time by the Sea in a great part of Britain.

Cancelling Government Debt held by Central Banks

A theme seems to be emerging discussing this possiblity.

Frank Giustra at the Canaccord Recources Conference - Gold - Mother of all Bubbles - About to witness the greatest transfer of wealth in history

Wide ranging discussion.
"We are about to witness the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind, in a way so stealth most people won't notice, through inflation, people will wake up one day and find their wealth has been destroyed. People will wake up looking for the culprits. A great illusion, Bernanke pointing to the benefits of QE, setting the stage for the transfer of wealth by inflation. People will look for scapegoats"

Junior Gold Merger - Blue Gold with Riverstone

More signs of M&A activity in the junior gold mining and exploration stocks with the announcement that Blue Gold Mining (BGX.v) will merge with Riverstone (RVS.v).

Junior Gold Miner M&A - Eike Batista's AUX acquires Calvista and Galway in Colombia

Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista acquired Ventana in February of 2011 for $1.5bn , with Ventana citing a lack of other options after speculation of higher bids. Ventana's La Bodega / La Mascota was a major discovery of the last junior gold cycle, with a high grade gold discovery in Colombia.

Canaccord Genuity Resources Conference 2012 - Miami

Always interesting to see which companies are promoting to institutional investors.

As money hides away, Gold heads for a blow off top

Interesting views to be expressed in the FT, although in the FTfm sub-section, from John Dizard who often has a different perspective. Usually worth following the "comments" at the FT.
Dizard points to the real mania being in sovereign debt and its end being potentially the stimulus for gold's own blow off. Sounds like he reads Sinclair !

Gold Junior Miner M&A - Argonaut Gold buys Prodigy Gold

Junior Producer Argonaut Gold (AR.TO), who I would categorise as a "growth consolidator" in the gold junior space, led by respected ex Meridian management to a near $1bn market cap with only 100k oz pa current production in Mexico, are to acquire Prodigy Gold (PDG.v) who recently increased resources at their Magino Deposit in Canada ~ 6m oz, relatively low grade - although as Prodigy point out, ranking quite high grade alongside other deposits available for development......

Points to Ponder on Junior Mining Stocks

At Canadian Mine Analysis

http://www.canadianmineanalysis.com/2012/10/some-points-to-ponder-for-the-junior-mining-stocks/#more-295

IMF Game changer? - Enough of that Austerity already

While Central Bank leadership applicants suggest more radical printing policies (see below) the IMF suggests Austerity is damaging growth.

UK Financial Times : UK needs to talk about helicopters - Adair Turner Mansion House Speech

Adair Turner's pitch for the job of Governor of the Bank of England in his Mansion House speech referred to more extreme monetary policy options, taken by many to imply full monetisation of government debt, UK Gilts........

Pimco Turn Goldbug

Mainstream investment houses continue to come to recognise the case for gold......

Carlos Slim's Minera Frisco Buys More Gold & Silver in the Ground from Aurico

Carlos Slim's Precious Metal Mining company, Minera Frisco, announced the purchase of Aurico's Ocampo mine and exploration assets in Chihuahua state Mexico for $750m.
Ocampo was the old Gammon Gold mine.

Aurico's stock jumped 20% higher, they will focus on Young Davidson in Canada and the former Capital Gold assets in Mexico.

So why did the world's richest man want a mine which has always struggled to fulfil its promise under Gammon and Aurico?

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=159939&sn=Detail&pid=66

Mines & Money - Australia / London

Upcoming conferences and presentations in October and December 2012

Standard Chartered - Earth's Resources Conference

Presentations from companies presented in June 2012 in Hong Kong.

Stan Bharti - Sulliden - Forbes Manhatten - Aberdeen Management

Stan Bharti's groups of companies have been avoided by some gold investors due to generous management payments, incentives and company structures where Aberdeen float deals from Forbes Manhatten.

This analysis of Sulliden at the Inca Kola blogspot made it to BNN and saw over 6m shares traded in SUE.TO, down 16%

Torex - Morelos Gold Project BFS and raise $350m

Torex (TXG.TO) have demonstrated that there is an appetite for investment in junior gold developers with a fund raising for $350m to progress mine development for production by the end of 2015, hitting 375k oz pa production by 2017. This follows on from their recent Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS)

Hitting $2bn NPV at $2000 gold there is limited leverage to the current $800m market cap.

However this is seen as a safe project, relatively low capex and high margin due to the 5m oz deposit being relatively high grade.....

Gold: Adjusting for Zero - Deutsche Bank go Goldbug

When mainstream banks propose the case for gold it may mark the march of mainstream institutional investors into the relic.

Brent Cook interviewed at Toronto Conference by Tommy Humphreys

Good Discussion

The key, an explorer identifying a big system, getting better.

Investors with a short term mentality get fleeced all the time.

Long term holders, patience to test an idea, move on when thesis disproved.
Big money staying in for a long time on something that is working.

http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/index.html?v=12-09-28brentcook_1

Analyst Junior Gold Stock Picks - Brent Cook - Adam Graf - Ron Stewart

A recent review at "Mining Markets" of some big recent discoveries and developers from Brent Cook, Adam Graf at Dalman Rose, Ron Stewart at Dundee

http://www.miningmarkets.ca/news/analysts-share-their-top-junior-gold-picks/1001700893/

Brent Cook on BNN / Toronto Resource Conference Discussion

Brent Cook on BNN - Frustrating with a slow connection, reviews .......

OT - British Beers

800 UK breweries, the most since WW2.

Edgeworth Beer Festival - Great Beers
Thwaites, Timothy Taylors, and so many local up and Comers

http://www.eraf.org.uk/festival-info.html

Lawrence Roulston Interview

Beneath the Surface interview with Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities. Discusses Goldquest and Santa Cruz Mining
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/video/1325

Trading Gold Miners

Bill Cara and Geoff Goetz write daily at Cara Community and have called recent cycles in gold and the miners well. This is not a gold bug site, but one for serious, studied traders who recognise the precious metals bull market.

Today was a very bullish call on the miners by Geoff.

Toronto Show - Cambridge House

Precious Metals / Resource Companies presenting.
Limited Selection

Rick Rule - On Junior Exploration & Mining

A Long Interview here

http://www.thedailybell.com/4334/Anthony-Wile-Rick-Rule-on-Gold-Silver-and-Why-Junior-Mining-Stocks-Have-Languished

Gold & Silver Exploration - Discovery Stocks - Drill Hole Hits

I have added a new "Page" fixed  at the top of the blog

"Gold & Silver Discovery Stocks"

I shall post great drilling intercepts and discoveries here with the stock charts and a list of company stock prices and Market Caps below.

B2 Gold - CGA Gold Merger / New Gold Blackwater

New Gold announced a new PEA for 500k pa production at Blackwater in British Columbia, getting nicely positioned in the sweet spot of "growth mid tier/consolidator" heading to 1 million oz production.
$1.5 - $2bn capex is quite something to fund from cashflow.

Japan joins Global Easing - What is the Endgame - Gold $15000 Paul Brodsky

Japan Joins the Race to Debase

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bank-japan-ecb-fed-race-debase-says-kilburg-113550179.html

Interesting discussion by Paul Brodsky at QB Asset Management of the potential endgames involving gold.

Financing for Junior Mining

Yesterday's post referred to Sandstorm's funding of gold streaming agreements.

Today Jim Sinclair suggests that Cluff's deal with Samsung represents a "game changer" for junior financing.

Nolan Watson Interview - $300m to invest in Juniors

Nolan Watson was the very young CFO at Silver Wheaton and then went off to set up Sandstorm, another streaming company which raises equity to finance mining projects in return for a future metal stream at fixed prices. Sandstorm stock has done very well and is now US listed $1bn company.

BMO - 76 New Gold Mines 2012-20 - Emerging Gold Stock Production Growth - Junior M&A Targets

This presentation by BMO dating from May 2012 was referenced by Romarco in their Denver Gold presentation.

A selection of Gold Juniors' Production volumes, Costs and Market Caps

An interesting chart of PEA/PFS/FS production volumes and cash costs for a range of gold development projects, from a Midas Gold presentation, and a table I have added of the companies owning the projects named.

Global Easing

The big print to global reflation continues......
As money is devalued and earns no "safe" return the opportunity cost of investment in gold and hard assets falls.
If inflation takes hold and interest rates start to climb the capital value of bonds falls precipitously ending the 30 year bond bull market. This would be Sinclair's final pillar for a gold bull market.

Pierre Lassonde at the Denver Gold Show 2012

Lassonde is a major industry player, building Franco Nevada and a part of New Gold's growth.

Shortage of Quality Gold Deposits - Brent Cook / Quinton Hennigh

Daniella Cambone from Kitco News interviews Brent Cook and Quinton Hennigh of Exploration Insights at the 2012 Denver Gold Show.

Brent Cook Interview with Ellis Martin September 2012

Interview September 2012.

Gold Price Targets - Alf Field - Jim Sinclair - David Nichols

Jim Sinclair often points to Alf Field for his Elliot Wave analysis of the gold price.

Field wrote on 31st July 2012

In a Discovery Cycle - Northquest, Reservoir, Comstock, Carlin Gold

A number of exploration programmes are bearing the fruits of investment over the past few years. 

We are "In a Discovery Cycle" as Rick Rule describes it.

Gold Stocks Break Out

A good review by Adam Hamilton of "Zeal Research", seeing the gold stocks breaking out.....more....

Richard Russell - Devaluation of debt against Gold

Here Richard Russell, who has written the "Dow Theory Letters"  newsletter since 1958, discusses the role of gold in resolving the debt which is currently choking the planet.

Toronto Resource Investment Conference - Sept 2012

To round off a busy September exhibition season, The Cambridge House show in Toronto.

Perhaps a little more retail / newsletter writer oriented.
Always useful to know which stocks are being promoted.....for good.....or bad.

Precious Metals Summit Conference - September 2012

Another conference just ahead of the Denver Gold Show.

Linked presentations.

http://www.gowebcasting.com/conferences/2012/09/05/precious-metals-summit/day/2

Denver Gold Show September 2012

The Denver Gold show 9-12 Sept 2012 is a key industry meeting ground where juniors present themselves to the market and potential acquirers. Attendance is by invitation only, for the industry and investment groups, non-retail.

Links and list of exhibiting companies below.

The companies here tend to be more established producers or developers rather than the up and coming explorers we see at other exhibitions.

Frank Giustra - Buying Juniors - and Farms

Interview at CEO.CA with Tommy Humphreys, links below.

Frank Giustra is a very well connected and extremely successful Canadian investor and Philanthropist.

"Investible" Precious Metals Mining Sector Shrinking ?

A review of the Silver mining sector by Sean Rakhimov at "Silver Strategies" is discussed by Metal Augmentor, pointing out that increases in jurisdiction risk for many precious metals miners, and consequently junior developers and explorers, is restricting the "investible" universe in the sector.

Bernanke Speech Jackson Hole 2012 - Options at the Zero Bound

The full text of Bernanke's speech of 31st August which seems to have convinced the market that more easing will be forthcoming. Gold up by $36 to $1,691 breaking resistance levels.

Also an interesting Jackson Hole presentation by Michael Woodford on Central Bank options at the zero bound, particularly around Nominal GDP (NGDP) targeting supporting fiscal stimulus.

A Banker's Look at Gold and Gold Mining

Interesting article from a banker at Standard Chartered on funding for the Gold Juniors.
Discussing West Africa in particular, see the "Regional Exploration" Page for Explorers there.

Gold Mining M&A - Mergers and Acquisitions

As suggested here early in 2012 the juniors are seeing considerable M&A activity in 2012.

The concern would be that failures in the seniors, which have seen CEO's depart, may make new heads over-cautious.   More .....

Brent Cook on Barkerville

The controversy surrounding Barkerville continues.
Brent Cook's review of their resource statement courtesy of IKN.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/brent-cook-on-barkerville-bgmv-from.html

And Quinton' Hennigh's earlier view (also of Exploration Insights, courtesy Inca Kola News.
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/barkerville-gold-news.html

What has been odd is the strength of the price rebound, but once the cease trade order ends.....?

Gold Stock Reflexivity

A consideration of George Soros' theories of  "reflexivity" applied to gold development stocks.

.......application to gold development stocks: when a company with a gold project trades with a high equity value, potential buyers assign high values to the project and the company, confident that the company will be able to finance the project.  In fact, the higher the stock goes, the easier it is to finance the project, and, therefore, the more value the project has to the company, and the more valuable the company.

However, if the market corrects lower and the value of the company shrinks, then financial observers will question how the company will finance the project, and therefore assign a lower value to the company, forcing the stock lower, reducing the value of the company, etc.

Worth reading in full.

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Myrmikan_Update_2012_08_14.pdf

Brent Cook - Not Grade - Margin

Interview with Brent Cook. Emphasising issues with the quality of feasability studies and why margin and profits in mining don't just reflect deposit grades.
http://www.smallcappower.com/articles/brent-cook-expert-interview-17.html

Cook mentions a couple of stocks he regularly discusses, Lydian (LYD) and Belo Sun (BSX)

Part of a series
http://www.smallcappower.com/expert_corner.aspx

China's hunt for Gold

Interest in gold miner African Barrick, and others, from China.

Reports in the Wall Street Journal, the FT and the source in Qiushi Magazine, a Chinese Communist Party Central Committee academic journal communicating ideology to officials are linked below.

OT - Lake District

The sun is a little rare in these parts, but Ullswater in the sun is wonderful.
Here climbing up from Glenridding.

Olympic Gold - Closing Ceremony

Picks of the Games

Eric Coffin - Stocks to Watch - August 2012

Eric Coffin Interview with Scott Gibson  - "Beneath the Surface".
http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/08/scott-gibson-with-eric-coffin-stocks-to-watch-and-why.html

Failures in the Senior Gold Miners

The recent departures of Chief Executives at major gold miners points to failures in the industry and perhaps more to weak share price performances over the past few years relative to gold.
The XAU:Gold ratio tells the tale

Global Gold Mines & Deposits 2012

A large review of global 1m oz gold mines and deposits, including ownership and grades.
Remember grade can be deep or shallow so cannot simplistically indicate the economics of  recovery, but as full a list as I think I've seen made publicly available.

http://www.nrh.co.il/i/pdf/NRH_Research_2012%20World_Gold_Deposits.pdf

Got to Love Discovery

The junior miners and explorers may not have the wind behind them, but a good discovery can reap great rewards. I like to folow good people in good jurisdictions to enter during those long boring basing periods you see in the charts. Probably not ones to buy today, GQC shows how they pull back for entry points.
Two excellent holes reported today.

One from Nevada, (see the "Regional Exploration" Page here)

Greg Hahn's Canamex discovers 118m @ 4g/t in Nevada - use Brent Cook's drill interval calculator to work out the significance of the high grade
http://www.canamex.us/?page_id=7

Canamex CSQ.v

And Goldquest, as followed by Hard Rock Advisory, continue discovery at Romero in the Dominican Republic. 159m at 4.5g gold plus 1% copper
http://www.goldquestcorp.com/index.php/news

Goldquest GQC.v

Gold Coiling....

Looking for something to break gold from it's coil, against some of the most negative sentiment seen..... A good review by Geoff at Cara Community.

http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-jul-18-2012

Gold Juniors to Outperform?

Stewart Thomson sees potential for the gold juniors to outperform.
Though as ever cautions us to be ready to buy all the way down!

1. The junior gold stock sector seems to be revving its engine the loudest of all. To get a visual picture of why I hear that sound, please click here now.
   
2. I’ve compared GDXJ to CDNX, and you can see that a head & shoulders bottom pattern has formed, suggesting that junior gold stocks are poised to significantly outperform the general junior resource sector.

In full ....

 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_071712.html

Gold Stocks - Bottom,Re- test, Launch ?

Adam Brochert was wisely very cautious on the miners in 2011 but is suggesting the turn here.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1342445382.php

Michael Pento - Major Fed Move - Gold to Skyrocket

Michael Pento discusses the Bernanke Fed delving deeper into the playbook from the famous helicopter speech

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/7/8_This_Major_Fed_Move_Is_About_To_Cause_Gold_To_Skyrocket.html

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Of course this may be wild speculation.
However the use of non-conventional policy beyond another simple QEn may well be called for and not "register" with the public as "printing" in the run up to US Elections.

Recalling Bernanke's speech about deflation (link above)

In Gold We Trust - Erste Bank - Ronald-Peter Stoeferle

A wide ranging view of the case for Gold, updated 2012.

http://static.safehaven.com/pdfs/erste_2012_07_11.pdf

We believe that mining shares currently represent a high-leverage bet on the gold price with an extremely attractive risk/return profile. Strong balance sheets, high free cash flows, a substantial increase in margins, low debt levels, and rising dividends all speak in favor of the sector. There are also only a few sectors that are more underweighted by investors. We therefore believe that the current, historically low valuations offer a good opportunity to invest......

Tocqueville Gold Q2 2012 Letter- John Hathaway

Worth reading John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold's quarterly letter, and the wide assortment of charts and trends putting the current market into perspective.

.......we believe that the weight of all evidence as discussed in the following paragraphs provides a substantial basis to suggest the stage has been set for a resumption of gold’s multi year advance.......It is in the nature of all  bull markets, and (perversely) especially so for precious metals, to shake out as many as possible along the way to minimize participation to the fewest possible stalwarts.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/hathaway070512.pdf

   

Gold Technicals

A technical overview of Gold by Justin Smyth at Gold Eagle.

Considers the important Resistance/Support of the 400 level in the Hui, highlighting bullish monthly hammer candles, we appear to have bounced around here again today.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/smyth070512.html

Picking through the Rubble of the Juniors

Kip Keen at Mineweb with a review of the junior sector. - HERE

Mineweb also review a few recent IPOs - HERE


I am currently preparing a review of British Columbia exploration, quite a number of IPOs and significant exploration activity there.

Jim Sinclair calls $3500 Gold

Jim Sinclair called for $1650 gold by January 2011 many years ahead of time, while it was ridiculed as a crazy target, and missed by a matter of only months.
His emphatic, conviction style can divide opinion.
Known as "Mr Gold" he traded, perhaps drove, the 1970's gold bull market, and he exited at the top.
This time around he is seeking leverage from the miners (previous post).
Below he makes his call for $3500 in the next 1-3 years.

Gold Buyers?

Byron Wien quotes "The Smartest Man in Europe", (Harry Schultz? suggested in comments, I had thought Soros)

Barkerville Gold News

Otto at Inca Kola News has Quinton Hennigh's take on the rather unconventional news release put out by Barkerville last week declaring a 10m oz plus high grade gold resource.

Quinton Hennigh is a very well regarded economic geologist who has joined Brent Cook at the Exploration Insights newsletter, already regarded as one of the best.

He raises a number of red flags around the Barkerville news release - HERE

Brent Cook Gold Stock Picks

Brent Cook is a very well regarded Economic Geologist who has advised particular caution in the juniors since late 2011. He has a premium paid service, which also offers much free insight at
https://www.explorationinsights.com/

His latest interview at The Gold Report, well worth reading in full......

Bill Gross - Pimco - Clean Dirty Shirts not forever thus

Bill Gross, the "Bond King" at Pimco highlighting the safety / risk dynamic of US government debt.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Whats-In-A-Name.aspx

Gold as Tier 1 Asset - You read it here first

Well actually you'd have read it at FT Alphaville, reporting on gold's consideration for Tier 1 Asset status, held as collateral at 100% of value, discussed here
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/gold-as-good-collateral-dark-inventory.html

This story has been picked up a lot more since, for example
http://moneymorning.com/2012/06/27/while-banks-crumble-next-leg-up-for-gold-prices-draws-near/

The US FDIC is considering the BIS proposals
http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/financial/2012/fil12027.html

Updated Gold Explorer Valuation Tables

Updated at Stockhouse.

Emphasises the importance of likely capital costs and production costs/oz before judging under-valuation on a simplistic EV/oz basis.

The Golden Dilemma

I am bookmarking this to read more thoroughly, the conclusions seem to point to gold being "under-owned" by general investors and emerging market central banks, a commonly stated view of the gold market. The authors see this driving prices higher as ownership changes.

Something I have never really understood is who owns the world's 130,000 tonnes or so of gold now. The Central Banks and ETFs hold at most 1/3 ?

Who will be selling at higher prices to those who are currently under-invested?

Link HERE

US Long Bonds - 20 Year Chart

As discussed by Geoff at Cara Community

Consider hard - Time to buy or sell Government debt (bonds) ?

Cara's trade of the generation, trade gold for bonds

Parsing FOMC June 2012

FT Alphaville analyses the June FOMC statement   -   Here

Monthly Gold Pattern Bullish

Good charts at Fractal Gold, showing consolidation triangle in gold since Sept-11, though Nichols warns of a potential dip to $1400 to slingshot back.
FOMC 20th June should set direction

Interviews - Brent Cook - Rick Rule - John Kaiser - Gene Arensberg

HT My Own Market Narrative for Interviews from Cambridge House Exhibition in Vancouver June 2012.  - Here


Interview with Gene Arensberg at Got Gold. Sorry cheesy format but I like his approach. Here

Bank of England and SNB Easing

Good Review At Acting Man


Mervyn King's Mansion House Speech

Gavyn Davies - Doves Ready to launch QE3 - 75% Probability Goldman

QE3 increasingly probable?

Goldminers and Royalty Companies Piling Up Cash - Driving Mergers & Acquisitions ?

Discussion of Australian Gold miners piling up cash.
Here


And here suggestions that the Royalty companies are in a strong position to fund juniors.

The Bull Case for Gold Mining Stocks - PragCap

A well presented case for the miners, well timed, written mid May

Gold Junior Economics - Staged development

A number of juniors revisiting production studies to reduce initial capital and allow staged investment to production.
Interesting article here.
Some of the very small juniors are targeting near term production to fund further development.

John Hathaway of Tocqueville Gold Fund - Gold Miners to Lead

An excellent interview with John Hathaway anticipating Tocquville's report to come out on 30th June.

Bob Hoye - A New Bull Market for Gold Stocks? Gold Miners are Winners during Deflation

An Interview with Bob Hoye discussing the "post bubble deflation" and the increase in the real price of gold driving profits for the miners.

Barron's Roundtable - June 2012 - Marc Faber - Gold Oversold

Mid year reviews at Barron's

Vancouver Show June 2012 - Cambridge House

Junior companies with some cash left can continue to promote.
Are they wise to spend it promoting, drilling, or neither....?

http://cambridgehouse.com/event/4452/exhibitors

Strong Accumulation during Gold Triangle

Approaching decision time for gold.
Strong accumulation during the course of this triangle......

Increasing Interest in Exploration Projects for Mining Acquisitions

A Review of Mining Merger & Acquisition activity by Ernst & Young.
Emphasising Canada for "Good Jurisdiction" and transactions in the junior explorers.


“Canada is fast becoming a go-to destination for mining and metals transactions as companies around the world look for a secure and stable environment amid ongoing market and political volatility,” says Richard Crosson, Partner in Ernst & Young’s Transaction Advisory Services practice. “We’ve seen a number of deals, many being small domestic transactions targeting junior explorers and exploration properties.”

Have Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks Bottomed

A good review from Jack Jones. Here.

"The next few months will tell the real story, but in the longer term this may go down as an unbelievable buying opportunity that most investors will miss entirely."

Borrow more - not less

Here's Larry Summers in the FT urging increased borrowing as the solution.
The next print will be fiscal, then it can be big.

Treasury Bonds are Essentially a Speculative Asset - Hussman

The always thought provoking John Hussman characterises Treasuries as a speculative asset as rates reach for the zero bound at long maturities.

Good Jurisdiction - Mining in the Americas - PWC 2012

A quick review of country risk for miners in the Americas. Consider alongside the Behr Dolbear and Fraser Institute Surveys also linked on this blog. - Here

OT - Queen Elizabeth II - Diamond Jubilee

Britain celebrates Queen Elizabeth's 60 years on the throne.

Just Time ?

Play - Blur - Song 2

Action and Sentiment in Gold and Gold Stocks

Another excellent review from Pater Tenebrarum at his "Acting Man" Blog.

Seeing signs of progress for the gold stocks against continuing negative sentiment.

Debt and Deleveraging

See also previous posting on Ray Dalio's views which emphasise the same themes.

Merryn Somerset Web at UK Moneyweek points to a review by McKinsey of 32 previous episodes of deleveraging after financial crises.

Canadian Venture Market Review

Possible reversal,though not as pronounced as GDX/GDXJ.
Accumulation has remained strong during the price lows.
We need to climb above the October low.

from StockCharts.com for $CDNX

The Big Print is Coming

A well argued case that very significant easing will come. At LibertyBlitzkrieg Blog.
The key quote below - have we seen the precious metals bottom before everything else does?

New York Hard Assets Conference - Company Reviews

Metal Augmentor discuss the geologic potential and business plans of a number of companies. I liked their written PDAC reviews, I have yet to listen through the Audio reports this time .

Link - Here

One Nation Under Germany - Niall Ferguson

Historian Niall Ferguson in the UK Sunday Times suggests that the Euro is overwhelmingly in Germany's interests and they will lead deeper integration. John Maudlin's free email "Notes from the Frontline" has picked up on this for a wider audience.

I have seen others argue quite convincingly that Germany exits to a hard money zone. The "rump" of the Eurozone then devalues the core Euro, and their debts, quite an elegant re-balancing.

Bulletin Board Capitulation

TF Metals was a board which became popular during last years silver "mania". Poster "Bag of Gold" led boards discussing junior miners there and at Kitco.

This was the last comment suggesting revulsion in the sector.

When will this change?...Who knows!...Either sell what you have at the highest price you can get...or you may have to hold onto what you have for a long time!...I won't be posting anymore until things change!...Do what is best for your situation!...

I am so sorry folks!...Take care!!!...

Biiwii Fully Stocked on Gold Miners - Dumb money sold in May

Gary Tanashian is a voice to listen to for sensible contrarian views, following the bond "continuum".

At the end of this article, which sees a turn to inflationary bias to come, he lets slip that he is fully stocked with gold miners exposure. He called the bottom in 2008 very well.

A Beautiful Deleveraging - Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio manages $120bn at Bridgewater, so may have a perspective on things..!

Interview in Barron's Here


Points to 15 year deleveraging cycles, through a combination of austerity, default and money printing.

Suggests 10% gold allocations, gold as a currency to protect against devaluation by indebted US, European and Japanese governments. Much more worth reading full 2 page article. Views and perspectives on Europe and risks of European gold liquidity sales.

What's Wrong with Junior Golds

An overview from Peter Hodson - Here
To quote

What will it take to turn this sector around? Generally, when things are so bad investors get sick to their stomachs, a bottom is usually close at hand. Talking to investors recently, we have to believe we are near — or even past — that point already.

Spotting Gold's Turnaround

Some excellent technical overviews from Geoff Goetz at Cara Community

Bob Hoye - Outstanding Rallies in the Gold Miners

Bob Hoye puts the Gold Miners in historical perspective.....
"in a hundred years of data....only one selloff to a monthly RSI worse than now.......lows were all followed by outstanding rallies - virtually immediate to the reading." ...... more below.....

Financial Repression

Some Excellent FT Articles Recently.
Ultimately I believe there is a bigger bond bubble than there is a gold bubble.

Macquarie Making the Grade Conference

A Number of Interesting Companies presenting here .......

Gold - Dead Cat Bouncing - Or Last Chance to Buy Before QE3

This article from Mining.com just about sums it up ...... the battle between the Bulls and Bears continues.

They point out that by the time QE1 was officially announced Gold was well off 2008 lows.

The fact that gold and the miners moved counter to the general stock market and moved up alongside the US Dollar might have some significance here.

Either Gold begins to act as a safe haven and moves up with the dollar, or gold anticipates easing to come from the Fed recognising a weaker US Dollar, or gold anticipates easing by all central banks in a race to the bottom for fiat money which aims to devalue the debt.

Extremes in Commodities / US$ - Bottom in Gold & Miners?

An excellent overview from Short side of Long .

Extreme positions reached in gold lows and US$ highs.

The question is whether there will now be a significant "turn" as predicted by various timing windows, or merely a corrective bounce.

Bill Cara has called a cycle bottom for the goldminers


True Contrarian sees dollar down gold miners / GDXJ up to come


Bob Moriarty has made some good timing calls. Sees a bottom


Trendsman Jordan Roy Byrne suggests a bottom this week

Gold/Bonds Trade of the Decade - Japanese Pension Fund Buying Gold

There are a number who see an opportunity to exit bonds (government paper debt) at the current extreme high values. Some who look to gold at the end of the bond bull market.
Ultimately I believe bonds and interest rates are incredibly political they are being "acted upon", price discovery will come but perhaps not quickly.

Geoff at Cara Community of the Trade of the Decade - Short Bonds - Long Gold (part way down from top of daily blog page)

Zerohedge on Pension Fund Gold buying
Small percentages of Institutionally managed pension funds would see enormous capital flows.

Junior Miners and Explorers with Cash

A recent Canaccord Report identifies juniors with high cash as a %  of their market cap.

Linked Here

Willem Buiter at Citigroup Recommends Helicopter Money Drops

Time for the radical playbook according to Former Bank of England figure Willem Buiter.
Details below......

Potential Reversal for Gold Miners / Venture Thoughts

An interesting technical take on GDX linked by Jim Sinclair

A Review of Venture exchange history and prospects

Stephen Leeb Interview

Interview in full at KWN

Key quote

The junior gold stocks, the ones with honest to goodness reserves which have not been developed, they will see one of the greatest, if not the greatest bull market of all-time.  

Rick Rule Interview

A long interview with Rick Rule including transcript.

Rule sees "reasonable valuation" in the gold miners.

What can turn the market

1. Black Swan - fear - Gold bull driven by both greed and fear.
2. Early stages of acquisition cycle
3. Early in discovery cycle.- A big discovery is like a takeover on steroids.

Unlikely that we won't have a major discovery, too much money being spent.
Knows a lot of good geologists doing good work.
Funding increasingly good people in the juniors. Thinks we will be surprised by discovery.
Has done extremely well in early stage exploration, because the only one in it, has patience.
Seeing the broadest difference between scoping / DFS NPV against market value.
Diverted some early exploration funds to companies with established resources and values.
Sees 12-20 takeovers at 35-60% premiums.
Employing significant capital, opportunities to do that don't come very often.

Gold Sentiment

Mark Hulbert Reports 16% net short positions recommended by Gold Timers are at historically negative levels.
On a contrarian view Hulbert sees this as constructive for gold prices, particularly on a 3 month view.

Gold as Good Collateral / Dark Inventory in Commodities

FT Alphaville has continued a series of interesting articles by Izabella Kaminsky.

For some time now the team have considered systemic financial perspectives on the falling availability of "Good Collateral" as bonds - debt paper - fail to hold value, for example in Spain, Italy etc.

Here considering a "De Facto Return to the Gold Standard" as presented by Professor Lew Spellman. The most significant part of this story I consider to be the decision making to come from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) through the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision to determine whether Gold can be held as a Tier 1 banking asset.
Such assets can be held as core capital with little or no margin. This would put gold very clearly back into of the monetary system. Volatility, especially downwards, would then impact core banking capital. The BIS is little discussed but appears remarkably powerful.

A more recent article considers the reducing volatility of commodity prices, the apparent tight availability of oil and copper against a background of high inventories.
The suggestion is that commodities are being used as collateral in financing deals. The official inventories are therefore "encumbered" and not available for sale creating a squeeze on prices. The suggestions also followed up in the comments section are that this concentrates one way risk away from public markets. I would relate this to the first article in that markets, especially the Chinese market are holding large inventories and using them as "money".
I would add that useful day to day commodities are not supposed to be used as money.
These effects are having real economic impacts.
Much better to use monetary metals for such collateral ?

Sell in May - Short Side of Long

HT - "My Own Market Narrative" Blog (see blogroll) for recommending "The Short Side of Long" blog.


Interesting contrarian views.

In particular the chart of stock market performances in Election years.
There is a regular thump of "Sell in May" currently, given the wisdom of doing so in 2010 and 2011. The chart indicates a strong summer in election years.

Also seeing the dollar as weak in what should be a supportive environment.

Positive commodities in a "late cycle" rally

This article summarises much of this together with a positive China, commodities outlook and looking to an end in the bond bull market.
http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/china-leads-way.html

Precious Metals and Mining Stocks Approaching a Major Bottom

Robert McHugh's wave counts suggest a major bottom and move to wave 5 to begin within a few weeks targetting $3000 gold, $60-70 silver and 800-1000 in the HUI

http://www.safehaven.com/article/25326/precious-metals-and-mining-stocks-approaching-a-major-bottom

Generational Buying Opportunity in the Juniors

HT to the Fundamental View for linking this article from Union Securities.

Win or lose, value buy point, or end of gold bull market.

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.co.uk/

http://www.scribd.com/doc/92372527/Generational-Buying-Opportunity-in-the-Juniors

Miner Ratings and Earnings Estimates

Published weekly at Kitco by Bill Matlack of Scarsdale Equities.

Coverage of a good range of senior and junior miners with forward earnings estimates.

Kitco - see "Contributed Commentaries"


May 2nd Reports

• Seniors
• Juniors

There are many companies with foward 2013 P/E ratios below 10x earnings, plenty near 5x based on $1715 gold and $35 silver prices.

If gold and silver run over the next year there is extraordinary value in the miners.

The consensus metal prices used for 2014 / 2015 are lower.

My view is that we will see extremes in gold prices.

Either everything is "fixed" and gold is due to collapse, or there are serious problems to come. With easing the practical response, gold will respond aggressively to the upside.

With gold entering timing bands for a cycle change is this the end of the bull or the start of a move to Nichol's or Field's numbers (see right bar of blog)

Mickey Fulp's Gold Miners Suck

Mickey Fulp is a geologist writer I respect, linked on this blog at the Mercenary Geologist.

Brent Cook is another, well respected economic geologist, also linked from this blog at Exploration Insights.

Both have written and spoken recently of the weakness in the juniors, caused especially by a surfeit of poor companies and surplus paper in the market.
Both prompt careful slow accumulation in the sector and expect little to come during the traditional "summer doldrums" after "sell in May".

Here is Mickey Fulp's article
And smart trader Robert Sinn's contrarian take on it.

Summary of Brent Cook's recent Stock Picks on BNN
Link to BNN Interview - A good listen
Brent Cook is a smart Geologist but also associates with some smart investors like Rick Rule. However he also admits to some bad trading calls in 2011 for example getting lured back into the market and being well down in 2011.

OT - Bank Holiday Bowie

So many, hard to choose. In the world of the I-phone / I-pod / You-tube a trip back to the album is called for, songs which follow each other, belong together, where the sum is so much greater than the parts.
Keep meaning to read the biography which tracks along with the music...... Favourites....

Lawrence Roulston on Junior Mining Mergers and Acquistions

A long article covering likely M&A activity from Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities.

Linked in full Here

To Quote

So, back to the important question: Is this the right time to invest in mining?

Absolutely, yes. The downside risk from the current price levels in minimal. The upside is huge. Just remember that there is enormous diversity in the quality of companies in this sector.

Investors must be selective. The objective should be to own companies with high quality projects that will become takeover targets. Management is critically important. Companies that have cash are in a much stronger position than companies that will have to raise cash in a bad market.

Areas with low perceived risk will be more popular in the near term: Canada, parts of US, parts of Latin America. For example, the recent coup and pending civil war in Mali has further impacted the value of companies throughout Africa.

There are good projects in risky areas: you just have to weigh the risks against the potential rewards.

Importantly, you should diversify and you should get some professional input in evaluating companies. There is still further downside risk. In the meantime, high quality companies are adding value and the takeover binge continues. Another of the companies that we follow received a takeover bid last week, again at a substantial premium to the market price. There will be many more such offers, regardless of whether investors come back to mining.

By Lawrence Roulston
www.resourceopportunities.com

Bullish Gold Miners

A number of writers I like suggesting something positive in the wind for gold stocks

The Cara Team - identified this period for some time now.
Bob Hoye
Jeff Kern - Ski Indicators
Stewart Thomson
Gold Scents


A number suggest the possibility of a final puke first .....

Jim Sinclair Quotes Alf Field's Elliot Wave analysis of the gold price

Gold has Bottomed, Alf Fields

Elliott Wave Gold Update: In the article “What Happened to Gold” dated 1 March 2012, the “other possibilities” mentioned in the event of gold dropping below $1650 related firstly to the 61.8% retracement of the prior rise. The prior rise was from $1523 to $1792, so the 61.8% retracement was $1626. There was a further possibility of the retracement being 2/3 of the prior rise, also a Fibonacci relationship. That produced a figure of $1612. The first number $1626 did provide some support to the market but the absolute low was $1612.8 on 4 April 2012. This low came at the culmination of a double zig-zag correction, which adds to the validity of that low. The odds now suggest that the gold correction bottomed at $1612.8 on 4 April 2012 and that the gold market is in the early stages of a sharp upward move.

Apr 28, 2012
Alf Field

Junior Gold Valuation Tables

Some interesting gold junior valuation tables being kept up to date by the editorial team at Stockhouse.
Always remember some are cheap for a reason....others are bargains.
More due diligence to decide which.

Click Here for discussion article
Here for Lowest EV per oz Table
Here for lowest net debt - i.e. highest cash when negative
Here By highest Gold Resource ounces
Here Alphabetically by Name

Precious Metals Summit Conferences

Webcast and Slideshow Presentations from April 2012

A large number of companies making full presentations.....See list below ......

Central Bank Balance Sheets

An interesting chart at Acting-Man from Now and Futures

The extraordinary growth in Central Bank balance sheets is widely considered a fundamental driver of the Gold Bull.

And how will Central Banks exit this extraordinary Quantitative Easing and Asset purchases?
Some suggest that they can just cancel the bonds....
But that would be seen as extreme monetisation

Compare the ascent of Gold - from Nick Laird's Sharelynx via Jesse's Cafe

OT - Peter Kay - Bolton Laughs

Hope a little Lancashire humour translates.
Have you been to this family wedding?

Canadian Venture Market

The Canadian Venture Market ($CDNX) is sitting at important support.

Either we will see continuing collapse or we have a triple bottom with potential divergences in RSI and MACD.
Charts and stock movers below...........

Austerity and Growth Compacts

There is considerable discussion that Europe cannot recover with austerity alone, a "Growth Compact" in needed.

Wouldn't it be interesting if one economic bloc had followed an austerity plan and was plunging deeper into recession while another had followed aggressive easing and appeared to be recovering.

For polititians austerity is tough to sell at election time, as we see in France. 

Maybe this would embolden Central Bankers and polititians to engage in much more easing, even in an election year.

Here Stiglitz leads the charge against austerity

Gold's timing cycle is ready to respond to aggressive easing.

Jim Sinclair Interview

A long interview with Jim Sinclair. One of the more calmly reasoned discussions I have seen with him. Argues that Bernanke did what he had to do in 2008. Argues for a contained price of gold this year.

Here

Gold Junior Mergers & Acquisitions - Iamgold to Buy Trelawny for $585m

$500m value EV, net of cash. Approx $75/oz, mostly inferred.

Iamgold discussing the acquisition here
I held Augen Gold which Trelawny acquired and the potential of some of the properties may be a significant part of the acquisition logic. Trelawny also recently consolidated other elements of a large land package.

Is this just the start of a Mergers & Acquisitions Cycle?
Shareholders may have been disappointed as the price was a near 50% discount to the 12 month high. What are management and key stock holders looking to do next where they believe they can add more value?

Interesting to me that now both Richfield and Trelawny have been bought out at relatively early stages after discovery and with large bulk tonnage models and large district scale land packages.
The Rick Rule article linked a couple of days ago, to my reading, implied favouring high grade mines. Perhaps the lesson is simply a view on "mineability" which companies are ready to take their own views on rather than wait for full technical studies.
The extremely remote projects with enormous capital requirements may still have the issues Rule refers to. Trelawny and Richfield are near relatively good infrastructure, and accessible year round.

So where does that $585m go now?

Into bonds, Apple, or looking for the next Gold Juniors?

Trelawny and many other success stories traded at pennies in 2008/9, this is the potential in the juniors if we can find the best quality opportunities in the market.......

Central Bank Gold Purchases

A few views of Central Bank Gold buying

Suggestion that at current rates on track to buy $700bn this year after purchasing 58T in March


Michael Kosares at USA Gold has a wider review, suggesting that the Central Banks are adding a new dimension to the gold bull. Showing 400T purchases in 2011 vs sales in all previous years.

Here's a puzzle from Jeff Borsato at Cara Community however.... if the central banks are buying, someone is selling.

Rick Rule on Gold Juniors

Whenever Gold Junior miners and explorers make it back into a bull market read this article by Rick Rule, now with Sprott.

Embrace volatility or be a victim.

Recognise over-valuation and under-valuation.

Read in Full Here

OT Arctic Monkeys

Sheffield Boys.

Gold Mining Merger & Acquisition Targets - Iamgold

I continue to think that value in the juniors will drive M&A activity and spark the new bull in the sector.

Iamgold played it well in the last cycle, securing Orezone's Essakane deposit in Burkina Faso and adding 300k oz pa production for a $139m acquisition price in the depths of December 2008.

Here they discuss looking for an acquisition in the Americas for $500m.

Steve Letwin, chief executive officer of midtier gold miner Iamgold Corp. (IMG-T  12.66  0.15  1.20%), practically rubs his hands in glee as he talks about plans to propel the company into the major leagues in as little as five years.

18 Stages to Mining Ruin

A sorry tale of all that can happen to the investor during the junior's journey into production.

Linked Here

Junior Company Cash Holdings

For those looking for some belts and braces underlying company valuations, some highlights here from Mineweb.

I am looking for a good recommended stock screener to analyse and find these positions.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page66?oid=149290&sn=Detail

Good Jurisdiction - Country Risk - Behre Dolbear

Behre Dolbear provide a free annual review of Country risk.

Full article at Mineweb


For the Original Article See Website PDF "Where not to Invest" - includes broad discussion


For extremely detailed assessments of various issues affecting mining See also the Annual Fraser Institute Survey for Good Jurisdiction - includes lengthy analysis and discussion

For a brief snapshot....

China's Golden Focus

Initially read this at JSMineset but the link here gives access to the full article.
Sinclair argues that "value" will turn the direction of gold stocks.

Linked Here

An interesting article from Australia on Chinese interest in Gold mining acquisitions. Historically there has been a presumption that there was a focus only on iron and base metals. There is also reference to direct Chinese purchases of gold from mining companies.

Updates to - Nevada - Yukon - Good People

The most popular posts and pages on the blog have proved to be

• Nevada Exploration (See "Regional Exploration" Page)
• Yukon Exploration   (                "                 "             )
• Good People - Good Projects
• Junior Gold with a Major Mining Shareholder

I have recently revisited and added quite a lot of detail and links on the Nevada and Yukon pages.

The "Good People" page still needs work but now includes additional names either suggested to me or picking up Casey's Explorers League and Nexten individuals for example. 

Clearly views of notable management will vary. The projects cannot all be "good projects", some are very early stage, lottery tickets perhaps, so considerable care and due diligence must still be taken.

I would be grateful to hear any opinions regarding possible additions and equally any cautions around companies or people included.

New York Hard Assets Conference

The New York Hard Assets Conference appears to be a far smaller affair than PDAC but could reach significant investors.

Below are a list of sponsoring companies to watch.
A few newer names emerging.

Gold Miner Timing

Someone I have seen with sensible views on timing gold and the miners is David Bannister.
He sees some hope of progress in gold and the miners.

http://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/is-it-safe-to-start-buying-gold-stocks-yet/


Geoff at Cara Community has led in for a few days looking for the trade of the year as gold and miners get the last shake of the tree.
http://caracommunity.com/content/bill-caras-blog-apr-4-2012

Hidden Strength in the Juniors

I have made a number of references to the Canadian venture making higher lows over the past 6 months while HUI and GDX have broken "support".

I see that Gene Arensberg at the "Got Gold Report" sees some of the same signs.

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/03/hidden-strength-showing-in-small-mining-shares-part-1.html

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/03/hidden-strength-showing-in-small-mining-shares-part-2.html

We have entered the most favourable era for gold prices in our lifetime

Don Coxe disagrees with those panicking out of their junior gold stock holdings.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tim-price-we-have-entered-most-favourable-era-gold-prices-our-lifetime%E2%80%9D

Sentiment in the Juniors

My Personal Market Narrative posted a great summary of the hatred of the juniors at this time.

The Canadian Venture has held its last low.

http://myownmarketnarrative.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/dooooooooom.html

Dilution Risks in the Juniors

A good article from Haywood Securities, via Brent cook, via Tommy Humphries, via My Personal Market Narrative.

Discussing the risks to investors and the alignment of shareholder and management interests around share options.

http://tommyhumphreys.com/blog/the-real-cost-of-incentive-options

OT - London in the Spring

Leave the gold market to do what it does best on Friday.

A little escape to London

Sentiment Extremes in Gold

Two writers who see extreme bearishness in gold and take this as a very bullish sign; the crowd is rarely right.

David Nichols at Fractal Gold


Pater Tenenbarum again following on from his excellent longer review but now seeing Hulbert's newletter sentiment indicator turning "short", to the "Uber bearish" sentiment lows of October 2008 / March 2009. The break of "support" on the Hui at 480 is killing any recent goldbugs.

I sense some capitulation - "Rambus" who I previously linked with some very bullish articles posted this analysis calling for gold prices taking another leg down to $1300 by June.
It may happen, but do collapses begin from such sentiment extremes?

Some are still bullish for Gold and the Miners

The past week has been tough to be bullish on gold and the miners.

An article by Pater Tenenbarum covers the goldbugs' wall of worry here, in particular addressing the performance of the gold miners.

Some however see a simple and necessary consolidation in gold since September coiling to a point of breakout.

OT - North Yorkshire - Harrogate

A great part of the UK.

Translation essentials for some - Linked Here

FOMC & Gold March 2012

Gold reacted lower as no further QE was announced 13th March
Worse damage followed through the following day with some recovery on the 15th.

PDAC Roundup

Some info from PDAC was posted here

http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com/2012/03/pdac-post-at-cara-community.html

And here
http://juniorgoldminerseeker.blogspot.com/2012/03/more-pdac-interviews.html

The Metal Augmentor team have really impressed me with their detailed company reviews.
Their info is here, the day 3 & 4 report is new.
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-days-3-4.html#comments
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-day-2.html#comments
http://www.metalaugmentor.com/analysis/pdac-2012-day-1.html#comments

Junior Mining - Merchant Bank "Funds"

For those considering investment in very small cap exploration and resources stocks one simple investment option might be to buy a merchant bank and investor in the sector, equally one may choose to take their investments as a degree of due diligence and take an interest in the stocks, be very wary of this given the merchant bank's business models and incentives.

Most ETFs and funds I am aware of focus on much larger companies and situations.

There are a number of merchant banks, only a few of which I understand are investable on the public markets. A review follows......

More PDAC Interviews

Cara Community Post on Brent Cook on BNN and others


Top picks Eurasian Minerals and Lydian.

Likes a lot of the "Prospect / Project Generators" I list here.
This business model can avoid perpetual dilution in  the exploration sector and leverage geological talent, which due to the lost generation in mining can be considered rare.

PDAC Post at Cara Community - Day 1 & 2

Cara Community including PDAC post

Rick Rule on Stockchase for the first time in a couple of years mentions a couple of

Prospect /Project Generator model companies - linked here the page reviewing more of these.

PDAC Company Q&A

A few people have kindly requested a list of things that I might find interesting at the PDAC, if I wasn't a little Englander! I would be extremely grateful to hear any of the great stories to come out of PDAC 2012.

One of the first things I put up on the blog was the PDAC Core shack page above, so I fully disclose I

OT - Radiohead

No Manchester connections...

House of Cards - the line Denial.....Denial ..... always comes to mind on a big gold down day

Gold Merger & Acquistions Updates

More Reports indicating major M&A activity to come in the Gold mining space.

I have previously suggested that there comes a point when clear earnings, dividends and value drive a re-rating of the seniors' and producers' stock prices at which point they use re-rated stock-paper to acquire their future mines and resources in the ground, at this point the industry drives significant re-rating of oz in the ground.

Linked Article - Resource Investing News

West African Exploration

I Link here as part of this blog's series on the Regional Exploration Page

The African goldfields see the ugly face of gold mining; artisanal pits, dangerous conditions and processes that kill.
I would only be happy investing in companies who aim to bring modern mining to these locations.

More Companies & Discussion below

Colombia Gold Exploration

A lazy post because here is someone doing Colombia far better than I can.
Even lazier it's as recommended by Otto at Inca Kola.

I Post here as part of this blog's series on the Regional Exploration Page

The monthly letters, linked below, appear to be freely available, I presume his business is therefore advertising, so as ever beware of writer biases but for me Otto's recommendation gives credibility.

The writer is Paul Harris, interviewed here at Gold Report